I used to be an admirer of Nate Silver and his empirical approach to covering elections. Not that the horserace ought to be the center of campaign journalism, but since media are going to focus on predicting who’s going to win, it seemed like Silver was approaching it as public opinion research rather than tea-leaf reading.
Definitely lost whatever objectivity and accuracy they might have had. They have missed badly in many states Bernie won. Been saying he should drop out for months. Later in the race, I noticed that they would have a non-headlined article that they could later point to and say “we were right” even though their main predictions were wrong. It also seems to me that they remove old predictions and other data from the website, making it difficult to go and track their accuracy after the fact.
The media is at least as influential a component (rather than an observer) of the “rigged system” as the Democratic Party is when you consider how they gave Clinton and Trump exponentially more attention than Sanders, limiting their coverage of Sanders to portraying him as a radical when his platform is very similar to the platforms of FDR, JFK and LBJ, none of whom are considered radicals.
Any independent media relies upon contributions, whether arriving earmarked or as “dark money.” Sounds like this one (538) was compromised… and rewarded for pushing “the alternative to truth narrative.”
Silver and company might as well just shift over to the ESPN gig fulltime. Not only have they lost their objectivity but they have also shown to be pretty poor at predicting primary results. On multiple occasions, the 538 website has said Clinton had a 90-99% chance of winning up until a day or two before the vote and then the prediction either disappeared or suddenly lurched toward Sanders when it was clear he was doing well - not so much a prediction any more.
I stopped checking them.
I knew Silver was a tool when he tried to claim the Deep South is the area of the country most representative of America as a whole in the Democratic primaries. I’ve spent too much time there to believe that nonsense. At that point it became obvious Silver was just another hack trying to twist statistics to his marketing propaganda rather than objectively report results, the time honored, standard perversion of statistics that has so blackened the name of the profession ever since it arose.
This election has been marvelous for the way it has exposed the tools and hacks all around, including Paul Krugman, who will probably never recover from his self inflicted wounds this year. Of course, many of the same people have been suspect for years, but now they’re truly exposed …
Politics corrupts; absolute politics corrupts absolutely.
Nate is baffled when there is no traditional " machine politics " to guide his best guesstimates. When Bernie almost beat Hillary in Illinois and Missouri and he might have won the vote count in the Iowa caucus; well, it was certainly game on. The mess in Arizona, aside, Bernie was " triangulated " by the Clinton/DNC in Southern states where no Democratic nominee will win. Sen. Jeff Merkley hinted at this in April and Bernie did, as well. Progressive party leaders are aware of this not-so-sleight of hand Clinton trickbagging. I say this because I know that some DNC people have strenuously objected to flushing resources $$$ into the greasy hands of Clinton’s personal friends. Now we know this to be true after it was revealed some DNC dough went to Clinton campaign apparatchiks. The Royal Scam inside the Obama controlled DNC shows he is more like Don King than Dr. King. What a cheesy hustler he turned out to be. Shameless s.o.b. really.
In summary add the 1960s mantra: IF YOU ARE NOT PART OF THE SOLUTION YOU ARE PART OF THE PROBLEM, Matt.
He has Clinton up 24 in California as of a few days ago. Doubt it.
Good one. And, polls are being used to manipulate voters into thinking their candidate ( Sanders ) is losing when he clearly isn’t. Discouraging people to not put out the effort. In Oregon, DHM Research published a wildly misleading poll after mail-in ballots had just been sent out. They missed by almost 30%. But all The Righty Establishment newspapers published the poll with a straight face. The newsreaders on TV went along with the gag , too . This bullshit needs to end.
It’s going to be a mistake for the One Percent to crucify our Messiah Bernie Sanders, for since the One Percent won’t learn from history, without major Jubilee Debt and prosperity correction for common Americans, the Empire will eventually fall just like the gross inequities caused the United Greek, Roman, Spanish and British Empires to fall.
Why did they fall? Even emperors like Nero, fiddled as Rome burned. The British willfully handed India to Ghandi because they were so ashamed of their own brutality and lack of human rights. Fake Democracies eventually disgust everybody, even prominent members of the One Percent (and men of honor and truth like Bernie Sanders, our most senior progressive Senator and spokesperson.)
It’s getting pretty bad when even the government leaders start speaking out. Change must happen at the top or else things are going to unravel from bottom! (If the rise of nasty politics and Christianity in the movie “Son of God” is right.) Rome decided that fear via torture and genocide alone, were enough to secure power over the masses. They were wrong. The Supers are wrong this time too. To sacrifice Bernie on a cross is a big mistake.
America is the only hope for this world. We need her strength to declare a war on global emissions or we are all going to fry from global warming. That’s the internal word from NASA, NOAA, the CIA and the Pentagon and even discovered fossil fuel company documents. According to Sanders, they all believe in global warming, and Sanders is on the Senate Intell Committee, so I believe him. Now the Oil Barons bush and Koch aren’t smart as their forebears and don’t shift gears into a green economy. Those robber baron families fortunes came from slavery and later Railroads and War and shifted to the Oil Business just 100 years ago. It’s time for them to shift again, but this crop of rich deadbeats doesn’t have the courage to shift and adapt. They are going to kill their own children with the status quo coal plant and private auto and war.
I’m an expert in the Atmosphere. I’ve studied it my whole life. The Amosphere of this planet cannot take any more private automobiles. And that’s the business plan of GM: to put a Billion new Chinese and Indian peasants behind the wheel with easy financing. It’s only the fate of your children hanging in the balance. That’s all.
So I say,
It’s Bernie or Trump
War = massive global warming. Nothing heats up this planet like war. Clinton = more World War, so she must be defeated right now at all costs. Then in November the choice is a no-brainer in the November general election. Bernie will take over the oval office.
Clinton needs the machine in New Jersey to come to her rescue. The Dirty Democratic Party backed The Crisco Kid over a real progressive in 2010. The unions sold her out, as well. Go figure.
I was glad to see that Bernie said today that the Democratic primary was not “rigged,” rather he called it “dumb,” because the closed primaries exclude independents (who of course can register as Democrats and vote in the primary if they want to). I would say that is progress. However, he should go further. Which means he should say that the Democratic primary is dumb because of the caucuses which exclude many registered Democrats. Then he would have it right. It is the caucuses that have extremely low voter turnout. Maybe after Clinton becomes the presumptive nominee on June 7 Bernie will finally be able to speak the truth.
Smart guys the Silver crew are. Yet, let’s not forget that they are at heart basically glorified bean counters.
Krugman figures he’ll “recover” his reputation as the next Federal Reserve Chairman under Hillary, which is enough of a reason all by itself to vote against Hillary many times over.
The NY Times is the puppet of Carlos Slim now …
In several states, the contest was a virtual tie: Iowa, Nevada, Illinois, Missouri, Massachusetts, Kentucky. ( I might be missing a few.) Actions by Clinton and/or her supporters/operatives was a factor in Iowa, Nevada, Illinois and Massachussets.
Iowa - State Dem party refuses to release caucus results
Nevada - Unregistered HRC supporters were told to go in and caucus first, registger later.
Illinois - Clinton Supersupporter and Illinois Ag Lisa Madigan objected to a judge’s ruling allowing voters in 6 counties (leaning pro-Sanders) to vote late because those counties had actually run out of ballots.
Massachusetts - Bill illegally electioneering in polling places where support for Sanders was strong, denying people the right to vote due to security concerns.
Kentucky - Machine errors nearly always flipping to Hillary when “corrected.”
I’ve never been much of a Nate Silver fan but after reading the two articles mentioned above I wrote him off as another stooge for the Clinton/DNC machine.
All these articles out talking about how Bernie can’t win just amount to voter suppression. If you repeat a lie often enough people believe it.
The writing on the wall is that people want an anti-establishment candidate. If I saw that in the beginning whey couldn’t they? Their fist mistake was trying to compare this election to others in the past. No comparison there, Bernie’s campaign has broken all the records and not followed any previous races. He’s a rare gem and we are blessed to have him.
The false memes of the official press will continue until your genuflections to TPB are perfectly executed every time.
I used to like people who agreed with me.