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After Left's Victory in Alberta, For Rachel Notley the Hard Part Starts Now


#1

After Left's Victory in Alberta, For Rachel Notley the Hard Part Starts Now

Karl Nerenberg

The prospect of an orange Alberta had the business establishment fretting right up to the last minute.

On Alberta's election-day morning the headline in the Globe and Mail's Report on Business was: "Energy industry braces for Alberta election results."

The NDP leader, now Premier-elect Rachel Notley had, horror of horrors, promised a "review" of the cash benefits -- the royalties -- that the people of Alberta get from the oil and gas that private corporations, many of them foreign, pull out of their soil.


#2

I wonder how this will change the dynamics of the upcoming election at the Federal level. Harper could always count om solid support in the Western Provinces and in particular Alberta.

Will this give him pause?


#3

So, it just happened in Canada, it happened in Greece and is on the verge of happing in Spain.
It can happen in the US. Just the as author says, “if only they were brave enough to make it.”
We also have to face the harsh reality that the monies interests are going to fight hard and dirty. They own TV networks, newspapers, and radio and they will use them to spew their right wing hate of the real left.
They will use terms like socialist and communists and know full well that most Americans don’t any more then have been indoctrinated with about them, which is to distrust and hate both.

The capitalist class have done a very good job at villain zing the real left ( socialist and communists) so that it is even hard to mention either without getting a venomous response from most people.

So, the fight is on and at the moment it seems the left is gaining ground rapidly and you can bet the right is coming hard.


#4

I was just looking at the electoral map in Alberta and at the results. The following stick out.

The right "split the vote". The NDP got 41 percent of the vote overall and the Wild Rose Party and Conservatives 52 percent between them. Wild Rose spun off the existing Conservatives and are considered MORE to the right then that party,

The North South divide remains. The North has always been more to the left than the South part of the province this due to a number of factors.

The South was settled by many Americans who tended to be "Conservative". The North was settled by more East European migrants who tended to be laborers and unionists. The South as center of the Oil industry then attracted more of the executive class and businessmen who tended to be Conervative in the provinces they migrated from. The North tended to draw laborers.

The Liberal party saw a serious decay in support. They could always count on some percentage of vote but it looks like thse that did support that party opted to vote NDP instead.


#6

If the parties were combined they would have 52 percent of the vote compared to 41 percent. This would have allowed it to win many of the seats that went to the NDP.

This is how vote splitting works in a first past the post system as Canada has.

This is how the Liberals at the Federal level won elections through the 1990's. There were two Right wing parties, the Progressive Conservatives and the Reform party which were splitting the right wing vote. When those two parties combined under the newly named "Conservative Party" Harper won his election.

THAT said the 41 percent for the NDP In and of itself is very significant.

In the 2012 elections the NDP got 10 percent of the Vote. The Liberals got 10 percent of the vote. The two right wing parties combined got 78 percent of the vote.

This means a whole lot of people are shifting their political views. This is huge. Support for the two right wing parties overall dropped from 78 percent in 2012 to 52 percent.


#7

armybrat ~

That's not how it works in a "First Past the Post" system.

In many ridings won by the NDP, the COMBINED votes cast for the two conservative parties easily surpassed the number of votes cast for the NDP. Many NDP seats would become conservative. The current 53 seats vs the 20 + 11 seats divide would not hold, and the conservatives would end up with a majority of the seats.

In both cases, the current NDP win and the imaginary conservative victory, winners end up with a majority of seats with only approximately 40% of the popular vote.

Federally, Harper (Canada's current Prime Minister) has a majority of the seats in The House, gained with only 40% of the votes cast and only 25% of the votes of all Canadians eligible to vote.

1 out of 4 gave him a solid majority. Welcome to First Past the Post!


#8

Several years back here in British Columbia we had a referendum on introducing a PR system to the Province. It came within 1 percentage point of winning.

The two major Political parties were quite surprised it came so close so when the next referendum came up they both acted to esnure it would not pass and it was soundly defeated putting it on the backburner for years to come.

It my opinion that had it passed it would have spread across they country and then to the Federal level in due course.


#9

Progressive conservatives is a definitive oxymoron!


#10

No arguements there smile

Note they become just CONSERVATIVE after Reform and the Progressive Conservatives merged so I have often wondered what happened to the "Progressive" wing. I guess "reform" canceled out "progressive"

There was actually talk of renaming the party the Conservative Reform Alliance Party until someone pointed out a fundamental flaw with that name. As it turns out they were and are still crap.


#13

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#14

It not that difficult once you leave behind the meme of a two party system.

Let us assume you have a riding or constituency of 5000 voters.

There are two parties running considered mainstream. One side gets 44 percent of those 5000 votes and the other gets 42 percent of those eligible votes.

The FIRST party will win the seat with 2200 votes. The second place finisher will get nothing even as that person had the support of 2100 votes.

Now let us assume that First party was RIGHT wing or conservative and the Second was Left wing or socialist. The Right wingers have a faction that have a falling out. The supporters (see tea party) do not think the party is right wing enough so a NEW party is formed.

Now there another election.

The TWO right wing parties still get 44 percent of the vote but it SPLIT down the middle as half the persons that voted for that ONE Conservative party decide they want to support the new more to the right party.

The NEW right wing party now gets 1000 votes.
The OLD right wing party gets 1200 votes

The left wing party gets the same level of support or 2200 votes. Left wing party will win and will win by a significant margin.

Multiply this by all of the ridings or constituencies in a province/country and it determines who will govern.

In the Alberta election the Conservatives USED to be one larger party but had an internal falling out and a number left that party to form "The Wild Rose Party" which is much more conservative. They took many of the voters with them.

THAT said as mentioned some 20+ percent of the voters that voted for one of those two conservative parties in the 2012 elections voted NDP. That is what is most significant. This tells me there a lot of voters in Alberta who once considered themselves "conservatives" who would rather support the NDP then Wild Rose or the far right.


#16

Same as what you call them down there :)...district? Constituency?