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Amazon Rainforest Will Collapse by 2064, New Study Predicts

Originally published at http://www.commondreams.org/views/2021/01/08/amazon-rainforest-will-collapse-2064-new-study-predicts

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In the meantime, while those of who are not white, do not have jobs, housing, can’t afford any medicare are under daily attack by the police, land lords, creditors which all empowered by both parties of the White Supremacy Oligarchic Authoritarian US Government.

If your only worry is about 2064 you are probably white, have healthcare, and are wealthy.

but yeah 2064 Amazon bummer.

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Amazon Basin: 2.1 million square miles
Sahara Desert: 3.6 million square miles

Food for thought. Or not.

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The good news is…
It doesn’t have to happen.

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Game over if that happens.

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The scary part is that the direct quote says only that the Amazon will go away in 2054, and it only mentions the current rate of dry-season lengthening. Which is already built into the atmosphere with the current levels of green-house gasses.

It doesn’t say something like “if the current rates of deforestation under Bolsonaro” continue. It just says that if the change that is already baked into the atmosphere runs along for the next 34 years, then the Amazon will be gone.

Rain Forests depend on having a big enough ‘critical mass’ of an area to create the rain forest effect. When they drop below that area, they lose the ability to create their own climate and they quickly turn to Savannah.

The earth desperately needs every bit of plant life to soak up as much CO2 as possible. Losing the Amazon sounds like a death blow. And, this basically says that short of some massive emergency measures, it is going to happen. And what it says behind the quote is that if deforestation continues it will happen well before 2054.

I wonder what the Earth will look like with a 3 or 4 or 5 deg C temp rise? We sure are blowing past the 1.5 deg C that the international accords so weakly tried to target. We are going way, way beyond that. This planet is going for a wild wide of a massive change of climate. The fires and the hurricanes we’ve seen this year are only the beginning.

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In the meantime, while those of who are not white, do not have jobs, housing, can’t afford any medicare are under daily attack by the police, land lords, creditors which all empowered by both parties of the White Supremacy Oligarchic Authoritarian US Government.

If your only worry is about 2064 you are probably white, have healthcare, and are wealthy.

I don’t think you understand the implications of the Amazon rainforest disappearing. It’s game over. A change this rapid means the Sixth Mass Extinction hits a whole new level. Climate change will be a runaway train within centuries. Not even the Permian-Triassic extinction, which came close to ending complex life on Earth, moved that fast; nothing has, short of a large meteor strike. Together with our other climate and pollution impacts, it will likely raise temperatures up to where the world sees hypercanes again, hurricanes which pack winds up to 500 mph and reach into the stratosphere, where they damage the ozone layer.

If we get to where the Amazon is lost, it’s almost guaranteed we’ll also see the extinction of humanity from most of the planet.

I’d rather succumb to the bad economy than inflict that future on anyone.

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If you wanna save the world, start by communicating accurate risk assessment. Since our heat sinks on the poles and in the oceans are almost gone, and Temps on the poles have increased way over 6 degrees F, we have therefore already gone past 6 degress F in heating in the arctic, that will spread to the rest of the planet after the ice is gone. Saying the the rainforest will possibly be gone by 2060 ignores and minimizes the sense of urgency we should have, and allow us to continue to debate these issues rather than take action quickly. We need a far more radical attitude and plan for that to happen! The amount of CO2 in the air will already cause increases of at least the amount the arctic has already suffered, and most probably our own extinction. Authors who minimize these imminent and pressing dangers are as ignorant, and/or criminally liable as the people who have mis-managed our world resources. Are we really too dumb to actual face this head on, discuss the ACTUAL risk, and do substantial and drastic changes in order to try to survive? Nope, like this author we will waste what little time we have left, talking as if this if some far off in the future scenario. We are already close to not being able to grow food. We need to stop making the world better for machines, and start healing the damage we have done.

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climate change is already a runaway train, and it will take years, not decades after the catastrophic cascade effect starts joining disparate factors into the equation for the temp to rise faster than we can adapt.

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34 years of this same CO2 emissions means we will have been extinct for 20 year already. We won’t be able to grow food in a few more short years of this degree of change that is already happening.

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A friend in Bolivia has told me that the rains have somewhat dried up already. Agriculture in her section of Bolivia is no longer stable - a persistent pattern of crop failures has set in.

I’d bet a nickel on the Amazon experiencing massive tree death right now deep in the undeveloped parts of the rainforest, followed in a few years by megafires taking out most of the remaining trees.

2064 is way too conservative as an estimate. This all happens much too fast, as people in California and elsewhere can tell you.

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