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Amid Easing Restrictions, Study Estimates Shutdowns Prevented 60 Million Covid-19 Cases in US Alone

Originally published at http://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/06/08/amid-easing-restrictions-study-estimates-shutdowns-prevented-60-million-covid-19

Easing restrictions already will cost us the lives saved, pretty darn quick. Contagious risk today in USA is markedly higher than when restrictions were imposed. Opening plans when formed must have implictly depended on an expectation the virus would calm down in the summer – an expectation thoroughly toppled by reality. It’s mighty hot, virally, and getting hotter. Opening? I don’t get it.

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Herd immunity ??
“This is just the beginning of the epidemic: we’re very far from herd immunity,” Bhatt told the Post in an email Monday. “The risk of a second wave happening if all interventions and precautions are abandoned is very real.”

There are more than 4 million grandparent homes where they are raising their grandchildren. Usually without any additional outside assistance, (AARP)

The good folks are in the mortality risk group because of age and physical fitness.
If second wave kills off many of these, we will need adoptions and foster parents
to raise up the childrens.

Last Friday, only about 20% of grocery shoppers had masks at 10 miles south of Chicago.
Disappointing.

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Of course “liking” your comment is a misnomer as I fear what you have stated about covid is the truth.
I appreciate your thoughts on covid(and other topics) here on CD’s and for this latest article by CD’s that serves as a reality check in a world of massively distorted, bizarre reality.

Today I am picking up groceries at the one place that is still doing it within a 40 mile radius of where I live and people are looking at me like I am over the top paranoid.
Coffee shops had temporary drive throughs that are now closed and as you all know, Wisconsin has been basically wide open for weeks.

Wondering if there is anything new that we are missing due to the disappearing news coverage on covid. And again, no more evangelical, trump adoring, scarf wearing Dr. Birx bringing us updates(lol).

Has it mutated more? Any recent studies showing how/if it is affected by warmer more humid temps?

First we were told: “no masks necessary” but wipe your groceries! Wash your clothes, floors, shoes etc.

Now: “wear a mask” (but they don’t say what kind), no need to worry so much about surfaces.

I have also heard that you need a LOT of exposure to the virus to get it; prolonged exposure. Some friends of mine think if they zip through stores or any enclosed spaces they will not get it.

But then again, I’m not hearing of anyone getting it in my area . . . . as if “poof”! it went away.

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Probably why republicans are not complaining much about the protests. If it were them in the streets would they wear masks?

My wife and I wandered out last week, before restrictions were lifted here in western Pennsylvania. We first went to Lowes. 8 customers and most of the employees, no masks. We left in disgust and went to Home Depot. Four more customers no masks (most of the employees did have them on, kudos)
My wife has a couple of colleagues at the local hospital that refuse to wear them.
There will be a second wave. It will be worse than the first. And the rubes of Pennsyltucky will suffer the most.
We’ve decided that this will be a summer at home.

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This is interesting:

~https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/07/immunological-dark-matter-does-it-exist-coronavirus-population-immunity

Interesting article indeed but left me even more confused! I just had time for a quick perusal of this article which offers some support for easing of restrictions and backs what trump and other republicans have been saying (it’s just the flu!")

Excerpts from article:

Dr. Sunetra Gupta of U. Oxford believes: "that lockdown was an overreaction and that frontline care and protection of the vulnerable – – which should have been a priority from the beginning – should be prioritised now. *
She believes that the worst is behind us, and that while subsequent waves can’t be ruled out, they will probably be less bad than what we have experienced so far. The disease will settle into an endemic equilibrium, in her view, perhaps returning each winter like a seasonal flu."

And another excerpt:

"One thing seems clear: there are many reasons why one population is more protected than another. Theoretical epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta of the University of Oxford thinks that a key one is immunity that was built up prior to this pandemic.

If exposure to other coronaviruses does protect against Covid-19, Gupta says, then variability in that exposure could explain much of the difference in fatality rates between countries or regions."

My area of expertise is NOT virology and I only did a quick read of this article but my first reaction to this is: wouldn’t young children/adults that have had very little exposure to coronaviruses be hit extra hard by covid-19 if this were the case?

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I read somewhere that Wisconsin is the most racially unequal state of the 50 (comparing white wealth vs. non-white wealth, per capita), just ahead of Minnesota. The progress of USA’s outbreak is always challenging to discern amongst outrageous suppression efforts – for instance, we’ve seen recorded deaths from pneumonia (no COVID-19 here!) at five or six times pneumonia death-rates from previous years, in Florida, Georgia, and Texas.

Reporting shenanigans are an ever-present additional boost to whatever microbe is around to take advantage, throughout the years, countries, and microbes. Where we see weird anomalies as in the South, we can infer that some states take public-health more seriously than others – screwing up some interstate comparisons. Repressing the numbers costs lives. But nationally, I also take into account that other countries also mess with their numbers, and find some things impossible to hide, so perhaps it evens out somewhat and the stats are useful, with a few grains of salt.

Bottom line: SARS2 is a very long, slow burn in countries where it’s more or less uncontrolled, as in USA. We won’t know if it’s ever going away until it does, somehow. USA has roughly idled at +20,000 cases per day for weeks. (England follows the same plateau pattern. Sweden did this for almost as long, then just had a massive spike to new heights.)

Meanwhile, Central and South America ascend to more and more serious trouble. Brazil shot up to second place in caseload – first-place sometimes in new cases per day. Those who put their hopes in warm weather dampening the bug see those hopes crushed in Mexico and Egypt, which have two of the world’s steepest outbreaks today (according to Johns Hopkins).

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Practically every single passage you excerpt is rife with absolute virological hooey. Thanks for saving me the trouble of annoying myself further by reading the whole wad of crap.

Good God, there are countless instances of people suffering apparently permanent disability, profound injury wreaked on too many organs to count, after testing positive, then negative, for COVID-19. This has even happened long after mild episodes. (The sometimes-fatal Kawasaki-like juvenile syndrome, for instance.) Exactly how does that resemble a flu? (I’m not asking you, I’m perplexed to hear “seasonal flu” thoughtlessly parroted by bogus experts.)

Sweden’s experiment has already proven such oblivious advice to be dangerous foolishness.

~https://covidly.com/graph?country=Sweden#new

Particularly egregious – for inexplicably contradicting the evidence – is the breezy assumption “one population is more protected than another” – pulled straight out of the researcher’s arse. There’s no evidence I’ve seen of some human genotypes being more or less vulnerable than others. This ain’t no sickle-cell anemia. The reason it kills more poor people is because they’re poor (and maybe essential).

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Yes. Good question. Immune system better? Who knows.

You can now take Brazil out of the equation:

~https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/07/brazil-stops-releasing-covid-19-death-toll-and-wipes-data-from-official-site

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Who knows, maybe we’ll see the Floyd Rebellion sweep through Brazil and restore Lula to office. The Arab Spring came from overseas to OWS in USA. Now it’s our turn to export a global revolution. Which tyrant will be the first to fall, to honor the memory of George Floyd?

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Nice stringing of words together as always A.N.! LOL (but the topic is far from funny— especially when there is disinformation everywhere apparent)

Those passages (“rife the virological hooey”) leaped out at me and alarm bells started ringing in my head . . . .

And NOW this??? Is this (repeated, rapid fire conflicting information) an attempt to drive us all batshit crazy?

Transmission of COVID-19 From Asymptomatic People Is ‘Very Rare,’ WHO Says
(h)ttps://www.complex.com/life/2020/06/transmission-of-covid-19-from-asymptomatic-people-is-very-rare-who

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Where are asymptomatic people being tested with reliable tests? They cannot find what they do not seek…

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Both the WHO and the CDC have been all-wet on numerous occasions this year – that’s how it seems to an ordinary slob trying their best to keep up. I’ve gotten to where I can’t take anything they say on faith (for one thing, they often contradict each other).

Part of the problem is the complexity of the microbe itself – so weird in many ways I suspect something unusual is going on with this one: perhaps there’s a secondary bug, so far undetected, which always or usually tours with SARS2, or some other cute trick evolution cooked up this time. Viruses have subcomponents (conveying invasive properties or strategies) which get exchanged with other species of virus. It seems to get even more difficult, each time a new viral challenge pops up, for them to figure out what’s going on – everything’s so very small.

I think aerosol transmission of SARS2 has been carefully confirmed – droplets so small they’re invisible, and can float in the room for hours. I’ve also heard many times that merely speaking is enough to expel aerosol droplets. Asymptomatically infected people are also expelling contagious aerosol when they speak, of this there’s hardly any room for doubt, imho.

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The technocrats are rubbing their hands with glee with articles and conversations like this one, and it seems clear they have have their dirty guiding hands deep into the Imperial College… while Oxford University who disagrees with theses models is shut out of the debate. And models are all they are. It was a guarantee right from the beginning that if you imposed a lockdown based on a worse case scenario, which it was always presented as being because that is how iatrogenic medicine in our age now works, that you would never be able to prove if it would be the lockdown, or a natural, annual viral event that left us with the “normal” infection and death rates now seen worldwide. The “strangeness” of this virus has more to due with a worldwide crisis of soil and air toxicity, to mention just a couple, putting enormous burden on population immunity, especially in the cities which are the most environmentally compromised. This Imperial College report stinks of fraud. What has become an anti Trump religiosity seems to be preventing progressives from seeing clearly the social control con job being pulled on us by global elites.

Yes. This:

~https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/09/coronavirus-may-have-been-in-wuhan-in-august-study-suggests