I’m always surprised when I see those numbers how many votes Gary Johnson who I thought came off as pretty bumbling (not in comparison to Trump) got.
If all states had RCV but the EC stayed as is (certainly not my preference, I’d rather have NPV and RCV), then you might wonder if Trump would have still won since Johnson voters would vote Trump #2. If CBS Exit polls ((https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-news-exit-polls-how-donald-trump-won-the-us-presidency/) were accurate, that turns out to not be true:
The question was how would you vote “if there were only two candidates (Clinton and Trump)”:
Johnson voters: 25% Clinton, 15%Trump, 55% wouldn’t vote
Stein voters: 25% Clinton, 16%Trump, 61% wouldn’t vote
(don’t ask me what happened to the missing 5% of Johnson voters)
If you do the math on just Stein voters (I did this in 2016 and I won’t repeat it here), it wasn’t enough to flip WI, PA and MI, but if you add 10% of Johnson voters in these states to the Clinton column, I believe she would have flipped all 3 and then won (of course you’d want exit polling state by state, to predict better, but you can get an idea).
Now it turned out the be the case if you took 100% of Stein voters in these 3 states and put them into the Clinton column, she would have also won. I believe until more accurate counts came out, this wasn’t true, but I had to admit it was true later, but regardless - this is just about the dumbest comment I heard people make after the election fallout was over - so we do this for just Stein voters (of which I was one, but not in a swing state)? Make an incorrect assumption about what they’d do and ignore any other third party voters?
Conclusion: I’ll take RCV state by state even if we don’t get NPV anytime soon - go Maine!