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Bernie Sanders Is Currently Winning the Democratic Primary Race, and I’ll Prove It to You


Bernie Sanders Is Currently Winning the Democratic Primary Race, and I’ll Prove It to You

Seth Abramson

Nobody cares how well a politician does at the ballot box when he or she is running for an office unopposed. What matters is how a politician performs in contested primaries and general elections, as when it really matters — like it will, for instance, this November — you can be certain of a contested election.

With that said, let’s make an important observation: Bernie Sanders has tied or beaten Hillary Clinton in a majority of the actively contested votes this election season.


"Hillary Clinton. Ready to go to war on day one". This doesn't really have anything to do with this article but I thought it made a nice campaign slogan for her. Just trying to help.


What Sanders has going for him is cross over voters with his nasty attempt to derail a Democrat. He is unprincipled and has admitted that he switched to Dem just to run in this election and now he and his supporters are working hard to force open primaries in the states that are closed to Dem only voters. If there is any fraud out there you can be certain it is from folks who did not switch parties in time to vote as Dem in the primary and are now crying foul because they were not allowed to vote in a closed primary. Bernie has spent too much of his time trashing the Democrats he now wants to represent. He has done nothing to help down ticket Dems and so, far he seems to working as a GOP operative inside the Dem primary/caucuses.


Gosh Debbie Wasserman Schultz, you sound a little bitter.


Alright, I don't want to be a negative nelly, but Sanders is losing and he's losing pretty badly right now. It doesn't really matter what would be or what should be, what matters is that he has lost most of the primaries and that it would be pretty amazing if his campaign recovered.

Is it impossible? I guess not. But he isn't winning. Why pretend that he is?


"his nasty attempt to derail a democrat"???? how about his sincere attempt to return some democratic principles to this country which has forsaken most of them? how about his sincere attempt to work for the betterment of the little man rather than the 1% rich and very selfish oligarchs? how about his sincere, and consistent, attempts to provide all-around health care, education, infrastructure improvement, etc. to this ailing country? how about his votes against perpetual wars and his refusal to meddle in other countries' internal affairs? his decision to run as a democrat, with whom he has successfully operated in the congress, was a pragmatic one made in the interest of maximizing his getting his word out to voters and to maximize his electability, NOT to inflate his ego, pocketbook, or any of HER wall street puppeteers. you want more wars, more TPPs, GMOs, a broken economy and poor peoples, a shill in the white house? go for it. hillary is a weird unlikely genetic combination of hawk, viper, chameleon, and scorpion ( http://www.aesopfables.com/cgi/aesop1.cgi?4&TheScorpionandtheFrog ) that said, i have a million times more regard for the above named animals than i would ever have for clinton.


Dear Negative Nelly, Sanders picked up more delegates than Clinton yesterday. Superdelegates aren't locked down until they actually vote. Don't believe everything MSM tells you.


If you knew anything about the history of Democrats, you would know that Clinton is a Republicrat, not a Dem. Sanders is clearly New Deal/Great Society, which is the real Democratic Party. The fact that he has always run as Independent is a plus. If the party will move back to its roots, it's due to him and the progressive supporters, not the corrupt Republicrats.


Closed primaries should be illegal----a person shouldn't have to be part of some private club to vote for candidates for public office. And public officials should be held accountable when citizens can't vote.


Seth - just wanted to say thanks for doing the homework on this. :slight_smile:

Clinton and her supporters should wake-up before it's too late. While Sanders is clearly the only loved candidate in the entire field, the Republicrat establishment and voters are handing November to Trump.

A poll out yesterday shows Clinton and Trump tying for record-breaking unfavorability among Americans. They're both as popular as stepping in dog-poo. But another terrorist attack, sure to happen, will put him in the White House. Clinton's foreign-policy disasters and ties to Israel will provide Trump with enough ammo to pound her to dust.



If Sanders derailed anybody it is Martin O'Malley who was hoping to be the progressive alternative to Hillary Clinton. O'Malley did not want this to be a Clinton and Bush coronation. As it turned out it certainly wasn't a Bush coronation. We will never know how O'Malley would have done if Sanders did not run. But with Clinton moving left there really was no political space for O'Malley or as they say no lane to run in. Why Sanders has called himself an independent for many years may be explained by the link below from the Nation.



Voter fraud and suppression in Arizona yesterday and elsewhere before is not acceptable!
Demand a re-vote in Arizona NOW, not next election or some other weak jive!

Hillary and her machine DLC-DNC fraudsters must be stopped - if not after this blatant fraud and suppression in AZ when?




What's the running total? The only figure I can find from a couple weeks ago has Clinton ahead by like 200 delegates.


Thanks for this great analysis. I wasn't aware of how the media reports results and it is enlightening to know they have tabulations of early votes before actual day of votes are available. Sanders status is amazing in light of the facts herein. #BernieorBust


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In an interview this evening with Cenk Uygur on The Young Turks Channel, Cenk asked Bernie Sanders if Hillary becomes the nominee and the Democratic Party asked him and his supporters to support her--millennials among whom Cenk says Bernie is more popular than Beyonce--Sanders said

"Okay, we're campaigning to win this, but IF we fall short, we're going to ask for certain commitments in exchange for our support. If you want our support, here's what 'WE want':

Single payer medicare for all
15 dollar minimum wage
Vigorous effort to battle climate change
Plan to rebuild infrastructure
Make public colleges and universities tuition free

This was encouraging to me as it's always bothered me that he has said he would support the eventual nominee and has never listed conditions. This is the first time I've heard him say his support would be conditional.

Sounds like he understands very clearly how much power he has. Also clear to me that Hillary would never agree to what amounts to essentially his entire platform, so I'm hoping (in the event) that he withholds his support and carries on his movement outside of the Democratic Party, where he belongs anyway.


Clinton is about 300 ahead, and if you add in superdelegates way more. But Bernie is trending upwards and superdelegates votes aren't etched in stone. There's a very good chance that Bernie's delegate count will exceed Clinton's before the convention. After all, over 2000 are still up for grabs. If Sanders does exceed Clinton in regular delegates and the superdelegates don't support him, the Democratic party will fracture and Sanders supporters, who will rightly see Clinton's coronation as anti-Democratic, will be highly unlikely to vote for the candidate the party selected against the popular will.

So the superdelegates will be looking at a candidate unpopular among independents, Sanders supporters, and Republicans. Will they choose the candidate most likely to beat the Republican nominee, or choose to lose?


Mm I think you have more faith in the representative system than myself. Would the upset of Sanders be significantly more egregious than the stolen election of 2000?

It still seems to me from all that you've said that Sanders is significantly behind, and not currently winning.

Still, there's room to hope.


It seems Abramson believes we should hope Madame Mayhem becomes more adept at posing as a "progressive", should she be the nominee.

For a supporter of someone associated with "honest politics", I find that odd.

But then, I'm not one.


Current delgates gained exclusive of super delegates.

Hillary Clinton 1229
Bernie Sanders 951.

A lot depends on how many of the final states are proportional as opposed to winner take all.