For this, read Lions-Weiler. He’s a sane guy who has the technical ability to look at genetic systems like this virus. He thinks they were trying to make a vaccine for SARS like viruses. The main guy doing this research is right there in Wuhan at China’s only level-4 bio lab; and that lab has had leaks in the past. He says that looking at the sequence, it’s a slam dunk that this thing is engineered. Problem is, when the US tried to make such a vaccine, it failed because it caused pulmonary problems in the old and the immune compromised. Sound familiar?
All his articles on this are useful, starting here (then go to his home page
and read subsequent articles):
The main bat coronavirus guy is there in China’s only level-4 containment bio lab. He’s been engineering both bats, and the coronaviri that infect them. That lab has had leaks before. Here is an article on that researcher, Dr. Peng Zhou:
On the issue of the status of this outbreak, this is useful, an interview of someone at Imperial College: (h)ttps://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/50-000-new-coronavirus-infections-per-day-in-china-xXGk0yLLHk-vflt-E0fD-w
Here is a comment to that article/video, which is consistent with the conclusions of this Dr. Ferguson. The commenter is a physicist and these models are very simple, so it’s straightforward. I’m noticing that the conclusions regarding number of deaths are also consistent with a claimed leak from the Chinese Communist Party, here:
I’m a physicist, not an epidemiologist, but I’ve done a simple model for the epidemic, and this is consistent with it. The Chinese tipped their hand by revealing the rate of increase of infections to be 18% day to day. That implies a doubling rate of 3.85 days (not 6.2 or even 5).
There are 4 independent measures of the real level of total infections: Grabiel Leung, Lancet, the ‘under observation’ number, and the Tencent ‘slip up’ [Referred to at the end of this article: (h)ttps://www.zerohedge.com/health/dystopian-horror-life-under-quarantine-china - my comment]. And they are all consistent if you correct for their dates.
starting with patient zero on Dec 1 2019 to day 70 (Feb 8), my model predicts there are now 269,559 infections, with a daily increase of 53,380. If the duration of contagiousness is 21 days, R0 is 3.86.
With reported deaths of 724, we have 31,722 deaths “baked into the cake”, people who are sick now, but will eventually die. The mortality rate is 10.7%, very close to SARS. But NOBODY believes those death totals.
If we take them [real deaths rather than reported - my comment] up to 2000, the mortality rate goes up to 29% (MERS), inevitable deaths rise to 87,632.
By March 1st, there will be 10.8 Million infections, 24,497 actual deaths, with 1.6 million more inevitable deaths. With the higher death rate that jumps to 73196 actual deaths, and 3.2 million inevitable.
The model is very sensitive to the duration contagiousness. Reducing it quickly makes these numbers better. The quarantines will have that effect, reducing transmissions which will push these numbers out, but only by a few weeks.
Again, this is just my simple model with pretty rough inputs, so don’t place any real trust in it. I really do want to be wrong about this.
A treatment regimen would be even more effective in reducing deaths. Perhaps the AIDS drugs can make a difference as well.