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Calling for Global Action, WHO Chief Says World May Only Be Seeing 'Tip of the Iceberg' With Coronavirus

Enemies like this coronavirus are DIRE threats, right from the get-go.

They are like the old story of the chessboard, and grains of rice. By the time you get to doubling the number of rice grains, as you go through the board square by square, you have enough rice to sink the world, to fill the oceans.

Diseases that show the potential of the coronavirus in question are to be ENDED … by whatever means it takes … at the EARLIEST opportunity.

The Chinese have already failed at that task, and we and the rest of the world are WELL on our way to failing in a similar fashion.

DO NOT TRAVEL, is the lesson I’d wish to impart. Not for ANYTHING you can POSSIBLY avoid committing to. This includes business, vacations, visits to family, any reason at all. And EVERYONE should adhere to it, because if ANYONE brings you this virus, it’s the same result.

If you wish to survive, take that advice seriously. Sure the death toll (so far) is “only” around 1.6 percent fatalities (my own number, I could easily be wrong), but 1.6% of the world’s population is (different context, eh?) … I mean, 1.6% fatalities is almost two for every hundred people… And we’ve seen how contagious this is (badly), I’d be surprised if everyone but the distant Nepalese were to avoid it entirely.

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Many such diseases start in countries which do not maintain a proper and diligent separation between humans and animals, especially bush or wild animals. A public food market should never have wild meat available at it. The risk of disease from such proximity is too real and immediate as has been proven time and time again.

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Two blocks of nucleotides were added to the RNA, not random mutations, which may have made it much more reliably contagious. Viruses that quickly kill their hosts self extinguish and go extinct, like the black plague.

The only precedent, if it is one, for ending a coronavirus, is the public-health campaign China mounted during the SARS outbreak. But the petering-out of SARS is somewhat mysterious. On the Chinese street, the explanation is “the weather changed.” MERS has not been eradicated, and the coronavirus family has been compared to the common cold. We know how successful that eradication effort has been.

I’m on your side in taking this thing very seriously. The way the Spanish Flu petered out was most people got sick and either died or developed immunity, according to an epidemiologist Brian Edwards-Tiekert had on this morning. There are stark limitations on what our medical technology can do to stop pandemics.

I for one am distressed to see such a plethora of tinfoil-hat rumor-mongering over what looks like the most serious outbreak since AIDS, if not since 1918. What motivates people to just blithely scatter sourceless nonsense? One thing for sure: many are dying and will die. Those moved to dance around with slippery non-facts and have fun with the pandemic do not seem motivated by compassion.

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Good points.

For this, read Lions-Weiler. He’s a sane guy who has the technical ability to look at genetic systems like this virus. He thinks they were trying to make a vaccine for SARS like viruses. The main guy doing this research is right there in Wuhan at China’s only level-4 bio lab; and that lab has had leaks in the past. He says that looking at the sequence, it’s a slam dunk that this thing is engineered. Problem is, when the US tried to make such a vaccine, it failed because it caused pulmonary problems in the old and the immune compromised. Sound familiar?

All his articles on this are useful, starting here (then go to his home page
and read subsequent articles):
(h)ttps://jameslyonsweiler.com/2020/01/30/on-the-origins-of-the-2019-ncov-virus-wuhan-china/

The main bat coronavirus guy is there in China’s only level-4 containment bio lab. He’s been engineering both bats, and the coronaviri that infect them. That lab has had leaks before. Here is an article on that researcher, Dr. Peng Zhou:
(h)ttps://www.zerohedge.com/health/man-behind-global-coronavirus-pandemic

On the issue of the status of this outbreak, this is useful, an interview of someone at Imperial College: (h)ttps://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/50-000-new-coronavirus-infections-per-day-in-china-xXGk0yLLHk-vflt-E0fD-w

Here is a comment to that article/video, which is consistent with the conclusions of this Dr. Ferguson. The commenter is a physicist and these models are very simple, so it’s straightforward. I’m noticing that the conclusions regarding number of deaths are also consistent with a claimed leak from the Chinese Communist Party, here:
(h)ttps://www.theepochtimes.com/faced-with-existential-threat-to-their-rule-chinese-leaders-decide-to-save-11-cities-from-coronavirus-epidemic-insider_3220421.html

I’m a physicist, not an epidemiologist, but I’ve done a simple model for the epidemic, and this is consistent with it. The Chinese tipped their hand by revealing the rate of increase of infections to be 18% day to day. That implies a doubling rate of 3.85 days (not 6.2 or even 5).

There are 4 independent measures of the real level of total infections: Grabiel Leung, Lancet, the ‘under observation’ number, and the Tencent ‘slip up’ [Referred to at the end of this article: (h)ttps://www.zerohedge.com/health/dystopian-horror-life-under-quarantine-china - my comment]. And they are all consistent if you correct for their dates.

starting with patient zero on Dec 1 2019 to day 70 (Feb 8), my model predicts there are now 269,559 infections, with a daily increase of 53,380. If the duration of contagiousness is 21 days, R0 is 3.86.

With reported deaths of 724, we have 31,722 deaths “baked into the cake”, people who are sick now, but will eventually die. The mortality rate is 10.7%, very close to SARS. But NOBODY believes those death totals.

If we take them [real deaths rather than reported - my comment] up to 2000, the mortality rate goes up to 29% (MERS), inevitable deaths rise to 87,632.

By March 1st, there will be 10.8 Million infections, 24,497 actual deaths, with 1.6 million more inevitable deaths. With the higher death rate that jumps to 73196 actual deaths, and 3.2 million inevitable.

The model is very sensitive to the duration contagiousness. Reducing it quickly makes these numbers better. The quarantines will have that effect, reducing transmissions which will push these numbers out, but only by a few weeks.

Again, this is just my simple model with pretty rough inputs, so don’t place any real trust in it. I really do want to be wrong about this.

A treatment regimen would be even more effective in reducing deaths. Perhaps the AIDS drugs can make a difference as well.

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This is very serious. There are now 400 million people on lock-down in China. One person per household is allowed to go out once in 3 days to get food. The surveillance system the Chinese have built is being used to enforce the quarantine. If you see my comment below, you will see that there is massive under-reporting by the Chinese government.

This is not funny. This just happened in UK:

UK declares the new coronavirus from China “a serious threat to public health.” Will forcibly detain people if needed to help stop the spread of the virus. (h)ttps://t.co/R6Zm8DmLw5

— AP Europe (@AP_Europe) February 10, 2020

“NHS staff and others will now be supported with additional legal powers to keep people safe across the country,” Hancock added. “The transmission of coronavirus would constitute a serious threat—so I am taking action to protect the public and isolate those at risk of spreading the virus. Clinical advice has not changed about the risk to the public, which remains moderate.”

I’m reading Lyons-Weiler (see my longer comment on this article - (h)ttps://commons.commondreams.org/t/calling-for-global-action-who-chief-says-world-may-only-be-seeing-tip-of-the-iceberg-with-coronavirus/73578/27?u=oatstraw).

Can you tell me who/what you are reading on this?

Happy Anniversary Archie.

I read your post with much interest and have also ran some numbers. The virologist discussing novel Coronavirus nucleotides was in the center of a long pod cast, I did not keep a link.

Israeli Biological Warfare Expert Connects China’s Wuhan Virus to Covert Biological Warfare Laboratory - Behold Israel

(h)ttps://beholdisrael.org/israeli-biological-warfare-expert-connects-chinas-wuhan-virus-to-covert-biological-warfare-laboratory/

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The implications are clear: if China sensitized their population via a SARS vaccine, and this escaped from a lab, the rest of world has a serious humanitarian urgency to help China, but may not expect as serious an epidemic as might otherwise be expected.

In the worst-case scenario, if the vaccination strain is more highly contagious and lethal, 2019-nCoV could become the worst example of vaccine-derived contagious disease in human history.

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Any technical person knows that once in a while bridges collapse, buildings fall over, and bio containment labs leak. The main guy researching bat coronaviruses has been publishing papers on engineering the bats and the viruses, and he’s been doing that at China’s only level-4 lab, located right there in Wuhan. I suggest you wake up. Things are not always as they are reported in the media. You might want to see my longer comment to this article:

(h)ttps://commons.commondreams.org/t/calling-for-global-action-who-chief-says-world-may-only-be-seeing-tip-of-the-iceberg-with-coronavirus/73578/27?u=oatstraw

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As opposed to that beholdisrael article, it doesn’t appear the work on these bat corona viruses has been covert at all. Their main guy for this research is at that Wuhan level-4 facility. Dr. Peng Zhou:
(h)ttps://www.zerohedge.com/health/man-behind-global-coronavirus-pandemic

This is a pretty dense article, which I have to read a second time to get something out of it, but there’s more here:
(h)ttps://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/mysterious-origin-wuhan-coronavirus

The basic upshot of that latter article is that they were studying why bats are not susceptible to most coronaviruses, but are to some, and they were engineering both the bats and the viruses to try to understand this question.

This is curios — Perhaps it is both the wet market and the lab. Where did the bat soup come from if the bats were hibernating? Is a lab tech the intermediate animal? Were discarded research bats dumped in the wet market with identical viruses?

“as a typical RNA virus, the average evolutionary rate for coronaviruses is roughly 10⁴ nucleotide substitutions per site per year, with mutations arising during every replication cycle. It is, therefore, striking that the sequences of 2019-nCoV from different patients described here were almost identical, with greater than 99.9% sequence identity. This finding suggests that 2019-nCoV originated from one source within a very short period and was detected relatively rapidly.” With mutations in every cycle, it is highly unlikely for different bats to host viruses with the same sequence. If bats alone are not enough for virus transmission, another animal is needed as the intermediate host, and the chance of the virus being identical is even slimmer.

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Seriously? I hear it was designed to infect people of Asian Chinese descent only but something went wrong and they lost containment before it was complete.

That was the only thing i found funny: the mental image i had of dump endeavouring to quarantine the whole of the USA.

The report is about pneumonic plague, which is bacterial, and in Yunan Province. A bit like thinking Legoinaires in PA is the same as Flesh-eating bacteria in Arizona.

But apparently the pangolin has 99% identical virus. Time to get the pangolin off the menu, off the shelves, and let that little critter live.

Thanks.

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