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Climatologist Michael Mann on 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season: "Hate to Say, 'We Told You So'"

Originally published at http://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/07/28/climatologist-michael-mann-2020-atlantic-hurricane-season-hate-say-we-told-you-so

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I’m not saying that climate scientists should start tapping in to their inner Chicken Little, but…if the sky is falling (which it is) then it might be about time, don’t you think?

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Me being an amateur forecaster, possibly better than Donald Trump but don’t hold your breath - Isaias could pick up a head of steam (actually, that’s pretty much what a hurricane does) and head up the East Coast in 6 to 8 days. In the new climate change, US Weather Service strength forecasts are too low 80% of the time. The other 20% of the time, climate change enhanced upper level winds blow the top off of a tropical storm and disperse it. The National Hurricane Center does note that if Isaias gets strong, its path will tend to be on the north side of the envelope, which puts it off the Florida coast in five days and generally curving northward.

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After twenty-six storms do we get to use the Greek alphabet?

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In the old days yes. But I’m not sure what they do now.

"who noted the warm waters along the East Coast of the United States, "

Where now, as with so many oceans warming up, we have incidents such as this:

~https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/28/woman-killed-maine-shark-attack

(Not that i have anything against sharks or where they swim - only to point out the heating of the oceans caused by “climate heating”.)

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i can’t even begin to imagine the frequency with which I’d be (cynically) telling people “told you so” if i were a contemporary scientist. Those people have the patience of saints, IMO

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No Beautiful. Homo sapiens have not used their intelligence wisely.

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The big “if” will be whether it takes that northerly turn when it reaches FL., not sure what steering currents the NHC are seeing on the horizon, and at 5 days out, there’s still a lot of uncertainty with this prediction model. The water temp. model in the story doesn’t give actual temps., just degrees from normal, but a general rule of thumb is below 80F. a storm weakens, above 80F it strengthens, as long as there is no other factors, like strong upper level winds that tend to knock the top off of them and diminish their intensity. That 80F mark has been reached about a month earlier, and stayed about a month later in the year than “normal” here in the Gulf of Mexico for the last few years. It’s why some forecasters with the NHC want to extend the official Hurricane season 2 more months to account for this new “normal” in water temp here.
If those temps are above that 80F mark, and it goes up the east coast, they are looking at possible big trouble, as the storm will continue to intensify, instead of the normal decreasing as it travels north.

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When do we start naming them after Republicans?

When do we start naming them after climate deniers?

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Good one …denial is used to continue the illusion.
Acceptance is for those that choose responsibility. We must be responsible for everything in our world .I guess this is what conciousness is and we must raise it.
Who else is there .