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Clinton Wins in A Cakewalk? Don't Bet the Ranch on It


#1

Clinton Wins in A Cakewalk? Don't Bet the Ranch on It

John Atcheson

If you listen to the media and the pundits, most are predicting a surefire Clinton victory – if not a landslide. One of the reasons for this misplaced optimism is that they seem to believe Sanders’ revolutionaries are all prepared to join hands with the PACster politicians and DLC types dominating the Democratic Party and sing Kumbaya.


#2

Elections are won based on two factors. The first is election turnout; Republican voters have less reason to turn out than Democratic voters, although both parties have pretty depressing candidates. Second, is cheatin' and she has proven her chops in this department. Yep, she's got this in the bag so throw your vote away on a third-party candidate if you feel like it


#3

Ever notice how advertisers say things like:

"Your new car will..."

And waitresses ask:

"Would you like brownie or apple pie for dessert?"

Those trained in P.R. (public relations), Polemics, Propaganda, or political messaging understand that stating a thing increases the odds of its occurrence.

In a culture that is trained to follow fashion, few wish to stand out. There is a comfort in belonging to the group and thus following orthodoxy.

In the past I've used the analogy of the Bell Curve to suggest that there are always extremes, but these constitute perhaps 10% of the population on either side of the spectrum.

When people are told that a certain product or person is "a winner," that assertion holds power... especially when, true or otherwise, it's repeated often. That is the job of the corporate mass media... a media that was handed over to a handful of corporations by none other than Bill Clinton.

I think that Mr. Atcheson should add a very specific detail to the following 2 paragraphs; and it's the deliberate manner by which voting districts were engineered to produce results favorable to Republicans even when they did not have majority vote numbers. In a TRUE Democracy, this kind of gaming of the system would be regarded as cheating and the results rescinded. (David Daley's new book chronicles the process... and outcome.)

"The 2014 mid-terms are a good guide in terms of what to expect. The President’s party usually loses in a mid-term, but the Democratic defeat in 2014 was off the charts. Republicans ended up with 247 House seats – their best showing since Hoover was President, and they took the Senate, ending up with 54 seats.

"Most of the pundits and even many of the Democrats themselves ascribed the 2014 shellacking to their favorite fantasy – that the majority of Americans are right-of-center and liberal issues like Obamacare sunk the Party. The fact is, the majority of Americans are left of center, and except for a brief blip in the 70’s and 80’s, they have been since World War II."


#4

You forgot about the Electoral College.

And if by cheating you meant things like touch-screen voting machines with outcomes that can be manipulated by computer geeks, or the Supreme Court stepping in to determine an outcome contrary to that of the popular vote, or of "voter I.D. laws" and reprehensible gerrymandering; then I guess the term "cheating" covers it all. Still, the details bear mentioning; nor have I covered all of them.


#5

Clinton's big advantage is the electoral college. The number of blue states that have voted for the Democrat since 2000 adds up to more electoral votes than the number of red states that have voted Republican. Therefore, Clinton only needs about one-third of the traditional swing states while Trump needs two-thirds of those states. Right now Clinton is leading in almost all of the those swing states and a few red states have turned into swing states. Clinton is leading because she is getting a lot more support in the suburbs. But, there is no guarantee that she will retain that support since many of those voters usually vote Republican. I would imagine that the debates will play a big role. If Trump can pull off one more scam and convince people he actually is fit to be president then he has a chance. Right now he seems to be going in two directions at once, trying to hold on to his white nationalist base while at same time trying to get votes from white suburban voters. Clinton seems to be focusing on an economic message for white working class voters, particularly a plan to spend over $200 billion on infrastructure and green energy to create good paying jobs and solve critical problems at the same time.


#6

Agreed. Clinton winning the election has never been a foregone conclusion. The people said from the beginning that she was a flawed candidate and voiced loudly that Democrats didn't want her. Of course they marched her out proudly and expect us to vote for her. It was a serious mistake on the part of the DNC.
I agree with Mr. Atcheson, that many disappointed Bernie supporters will just stay home. Never have I believed the hype that 90% of them will vote for her. That's just PR. Young voters will come out if they are inspired but she is one of the most uninspiring candidates I've seen in my long life.
Not only that, but we know she is a neocon war hawk which makes her frightening as well as uninspired.
Unless she manages to get a lot of Republican support I think there is a good chance she will lose and lose bigly and Jill Stein will make the Green party a viable party. To me it's worth four years of pain with Trump just to keep the Red Queen out.


#7

The disaster of one of these people getting elected pales in comparison to the disaster of either of these people getting elected. The election has already been stolen, any widespread public discussion about what ails our country and how best to address it will not take place. The ruling imperialists have all lined up behind one candidate. I’m not at all certain that electing an ineffectual blowhard would be worse, in the long haul, than electing a highly-skilled war-mongering oligarch. We must stop focusing on the artificial choices being offered, and focus on how to regain control of the corrupt system. The survival of democracy, even as a concept, depends on it.


#8

Maybe I am over-optimistic, but I think there is a possibility that young people will show up and vote - for Jill Stein (or maybe Gary Johnson). While they, like many of us, were very disappointed in the primary outcome, they are the ones that have the biggest stake in the future. Once activated, I don't think they will just go away and submit to the status quo.

Whether or not that happens, I definitely agree the MSM is doing its thing again, trying to make an HRC landslide victory happen by repetitively stating it as a 'truth'. After all, that's what they did with Bernie... so no surprises here.


#9

A "slight double digit lead?" That's huge. That's more than Obama had over McCain in August and it was pretty apparent then who was going to win. It's bigger than Obama had over Romney in August, and no one thought that Romney had a chance.

This isn't about supporting Clinton or Trump, this post is just about really poor journalism that is trying to create a story where no story exists. To believe Atcheson, we have to believe that all the pollling is spectacularly wrong and he alone is right. That's a big ask. Too big.


#10
  1. Even if Stein loses, it's not a throwaway.
  2. If everyone who owes student debt, registers and votes + some Bernie supporters, she can win.

#11

But it's not YOUR pain, is it?

After all, you are not the Hispanic (Mexican) who will be treated as a pariah.

And you are not the Black told that "all lives matter" in glib response to the very real suffering and attacks directed particularly at the Black Community.

You are not the Muslim who runs the risk of being murdered in a Hate Crime subliminally reinforced by Trump's racist rants.

You may not be the person living near a region likely to feel the direct impacts of global warming. It happens to be the greatest threat to the greatest number of persons and the Republican reprobate conduct around this issue is a Crime Against Humanity.

And you kid yourself if you think Republicans holding all 3 branches of govt. in their reptilian clutches are going to retain Food Stamps, Social Security, Public Schools, or any other branches of The Commons.

Mrs. Clinton is VERY dangerous.

The ONLY argument against Mrs. Clinton is to vote for Jill Stein... that is, unless as I have LONG sought to expose--the vast majority who are STATIONED in these threads (as a daily job) ARE right wingers and/or Conservative Christians.

I think there are some posters who make good points about the Democrats (and that would be the DLC, hardly all Democrats) being the more effective evil.

However, I have long contested this frame because it turns the problem of a system that's been purchased by Big Money into another sporting event that spends endless hours deciding which is the worse team.

That level of discourse literally goes nowhere. It changes nothing.

On the other hand, there's a lot of stealth that operates here. And the military brats ARE in Trump's camp.


#12

Wonder what would happen if enough people wrote Sanders in as president?


#13

Throw your vote away on a neocon war monger and we all lose, even if she wins.


#14

"Then there’s her numerous “sniper fire in Bosnia” type gaffs..." The word is "lies", actually.


#15

SidBailey - If tons wrote in Sanders, they just don't get counted as he's not on the ballot. So those write-ins would be equivalent to just staying home and allowing the people voting for candidates on the ballot the choice. Better by FAR to vote Jill Stein, at least that will be counted. The more Green that gets voted, the more pressure on the bums. Otherwise, they have no reason to fear us milquetoasts.


#16

Run round to the back of the poling station and dumoster dive for your whited out ballot to save it from the shredder.
(Do you get my ooints! De javue!)
Too many states do not allow write ins.


#17

90 to 95 percent of Sanders supporters will vote for Clinton? Do we really have any way to know who voted for whom anymore? Perhaps that's just pre-emptive justification for her winning big when it seems like she couldn't possibly do so.


#18

The fact that the superdelegate crowd, otherwise known as the Democratic establishment, seems to be repeating its past mistakes by triangulating to the right makes me highly skeptical about the notion that they are presently having buyer's remorse. In fact, with their echo chamber punditry predicting a landslide victory (as observed in the article), there is no reason for them to even entertain the notion.

Even if Hillary loses to Trump, one would be hard pressed to expect that they will figure out what has happened and enter a state of buyer's remorse. More likely, they'll perceive the need to veer further right to out-Trump the Trump forces next time around, not tap into the untapped and vast resource of progressives by turning left.

In all, their learning curve seems to have little, if any, upward slope.


#21

Right, folks keep forgetting about the dam electoral "collage" that has the REAL vote, our "votes" don't matter & aren't counted so why even bother!
Has everyone already forgotten the blatant ELECTION FRAUD on show when our "votes" were switched, changed, "lost" or given to "Killery"?
Haven't you figured it out YET, that the "vote" is a SHAM?

This fall I won't even bother to do a protest vote by "voting" for Jill Stein, I will instead take that fraudulent ballot, set fire to it, burn it down to ash & mail that ash back to them to show them what I think of our worthless "votes".
Stop calling this corporate controlled PLUTOCRACY a "democracy" because it isn't!
We need a REVOLUTION to throw all the bums out, "voting" can't do it, the "vote" is WORTHLESS!


#22

I will NEVER "vote" for "Killery"! The "vote" is a SHAM, our RULERS ARE SELECTED not "voted" in by we the people, it's done without our consent.
Just as the primary "vote" was a HUGE FRAUD, so will the general be a huge fraud. Our OWNERS will SELECT who THEY want to rule us & it won't be good for us just as that WAR CRIMINAL TRAITOR Oboma wasn't very good for us either. It's all downhill from now on folks, prepare for more "civil" unrest. If they won't allow us to VOTE. then we the people will REVOLT!