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Comparing Trump to Stalin, Australia's Chief Scientist Warns Against Censorship


#22

Lol. History of global record keeping which is what , less than 200 years? More likely 100 years. Yeah, temperature is rising, but in terms of climatic significance, its meaningless over these time frames.


#23

As Mark Twain said, its not what you dont know that gets you in trouble. Its what you know for certain that just aint so.


#24

No, we have temp records spanning billions of years. From this uneducated statement of yours it’s clear you never took Earth Science in college or you wouldn’t make such foolish statements. You simply don’t understand strata.

Here is a picture since you obviously don’t read:


click on this so you can expand both it and your mind.

This image is 500 million years of temp records from ice-core, sea-floor-core strata showing that in the 150,000 years that Homo sapien has been here, it has never been so hot. Secondly, temps have never increased at a rate this fast in the history of the planet.

Go to college! It’s not possible to make you smart on-line.


#25

Unbelievable. We have recent temperature calculations using proxies that go beyond 200 years but records of actual measurements taken in real time at specific locations are virtually non existent.

Ps I have an engineering degree thats older than you are, maybe older than your parents


#26

“thats”?

I think you forgot the apostrophe, Mr. graduate!

What is your degree in? Social Engineering? You certainly know nothing about Meteorology or Geology or Earth Science. If your degree is that old, it’s worthless. We didn’t know very much about weather or even platetectonics that long ago. It wasn’t until the 1980’s that a complete library of cores was on hand to determine species present in the strata that can only live in certain temperatures.


#27

Its tough typing on a phone

So challenge any of these facts

• CO2 is not the most abundant and important greenhouse gas (water vapor is)

•The CO2 sensitivity number have consistently decreased from initial estimates.

• Estimates of the amount of annual human CO2 production added to the atmosphere are produced by the IPCC. They claim it is about 3% of the annual total. The number consistently increases despite changes in the world economy.

• They claimed the length of time CO2 remains in the atmosphere is at least 100 years. It is only 5 to 7 years. IPCC used the 100-year value in their calculations of the Global Warming Potential (GWP) of CO2.

• Their calculations added the human production of CO2 to the atmosphere but ignored the human portion removed by natural sinks like oceans, agriculture and trees

• The Antarctic Ice cores (unreliable as they may be for an absolute value but useful for trend analysis) and all other records show temperature increased before CO2 did

• They falsely assumed that CO2 was evenly distributed throughout the atmosphere. The OCO2 satellite that began gathering data in September 2014 disproved it.

• They promoted the claim that CO2 is a pollutant. Carbon dioxide is essential for all life on Earth. Research shows current levels of 400 ppm are approximately one-third the optimum for most plants.

• CO2 measurements 200 years ago contradict the IPCC estimate of a 270 ppm pre-industrial level . These measurements suggest it was much higher (330 ppm) . IPCC climate models use the lower figure which result in higher temperature forecasts.

• Ice core measurements of CO2 are unreliable due to hydrate formation, and other reasons I have no time to go into.


#28

So what? Greenhouse gases are accumulative in effect. Excessive CO2 and Methane along with water vapor and millions of tailpipes and smokestacks may turn this place into Venus.

•The CO2 sensitivity number have consistently decreased from initial estimates.

What? Link Please.

• Estimates of the amount of annual human CO2 production added to the atmosphere are produced by the IPCC. They claim it is about 3% of the annual total. The number consistently increases despite changes in the world economy.

The world economy is not the only thing in the equation. For example, half the rain forest and half the sea plankton is gone, so that Carbon Sink no longer functions resulting in more CO2. Peat Bogs and forests burning for thousands of miles in the infernal heat that you are oblivious to, produce massive CO2 as well.

Models and forecasts are frequently wrong. But the readings are accurate; Mauna Loa consistently reads over 400ppm. But if you add the humidification of the upper troposphere it equates to 650 ppm CO2 equivalent.

• They claimed the length of time CO2 remains in the atmosphere is at least 100 years. It is only 5 to 7 years. IPCC used the 100-year value in their calculations of the Global Warming Potential (GWP) of CO2.

Please prove the 5 to 7 years claim. That’s not what I read at all.

• The Antarctic Ice cores (unreliable as they may be for an absolute value but useful for trend analysis) and all other records show temperature increased before CO2 did

Maybe that is because there is a ten year delay from release of CO2 to temp rise.

• They promoted the claim that CO2 is a pollutant. Carbon dioxide is essential for all life on Earth. Research shows current levels of 400 ppm are approximately one-third the optimum for most plants.

Are you a plant? No, you are not, so massive increases of CO2 are a bad thing. Your ATP can’t process it. Never heard of dry ice being dangerous to people on airplanes? It permitted only in very small quantities since it is a waste gas.


#29

On the sink

http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms13428

Residence time

Climate sensitivity


#30

Ice core data

10 yr lag? Lol. It has dropped from 1400 years to 200 years though


#31

CO2 in auditoriums and classrooms have been measured at 3000-5000 ppm. Federal occupational exposure guidelines for carbon dioxide concentrations are 5,000 parts per million for eight hours. On the ground in cities CO2 levels are as high as 1000 ppm


#32

Thank you for proving you previous giggles about CO2 being a waste gas, a non sequitur. CO2 is in fact a waste gas. But 400ppm CO2 is not dangerous because humans can’t breathe, it’s dangerous since it causes Greenhouse Thermal Runaway when combined with Methane and increased water vapor at higher latitudes from seawater evaporation, which I’m sure you don’t know about either.


#33

It occurs to me your belief is more faith based than based on reason or science. No point in discussing any further since it borders on a religion to you.

On a parting note, Mark Twain once said its not what you know that gets you in trouble, its what you know for certain that just aint so that does. Amen.


#34

Here is a good article on methane for you. Runaway GW just is so unlikely.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016RG000534/full?wol1URL=/doi/10.1002/2016RG000534/full&regionCode=TW&identityKey=1d3ff84b-3474-4d91-a9b7-1295e8f0d7a6


#35

“Amen”??? LMFAO!
I knew you were an illogical, non-science religious fanatic. Only that kind of fraud would submit a science paper based on year 2000 data that was clearly wrong. Current 118 degree F temps in both Australia and Chile and South Africa prove you are wrong about Global Warming.

The first all-time national heat record of 2017 was set in spectacular fashion on Thursday in Chile, where at least twelve different stations recorded a temperature in excess of the nation’s previous all-time heat record—a 41.6°C (106.9°F) reading at Los Angeles on February 9, 1944. According to international weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, the hottest station on Thursday was Cauquenes, which hit 45.0°C (113°F). The margin by which the old record national heat record was smashed: 3.6°C (6.1°F), was extraordinary, and was the second largest such difference Herrera has cataloged (the largest: a 3.8°C margin in New Zealand in 1973, from 38.6°C to 42.4°C.) Herrera cautioned, though, that the extraordinary high temperatures on Thursday in Chile could have been due, in part, to the effects of the severe wildfires burning near the hottest areas, and the new record will need to be verified by the weather service of Chile.

Figure 1. Fires (red squares) in Chile spread smoke over the Pacific Ocean, as seen at 10:35 am EST Thursday January 26, 2017. This MODIS image is from NASA’s Terra satellite.

Here are some of the high temperatures from January 26 in Chile:

Maule Region (near the area affected by wildfires):

Cauquenes, 45.0°C
Coronel de Maule, 41.8°C
Los Despachos, 42.8°C
Santa Sofia, 43.1°C
Sauzal, 41.8°C

Maule Region (outside the area affected by wildfires):

Linares, 41.8°C
Longavi Sur, 42.3°C
Parral, 40.8°C

Bio Bio Region (near the area affected by wildfires):

Bulnes, 42.5°C
Quillon, 44.9°C
Ninhue, 43.0°C

Bio Bio Region (outside the area affected by wildfires):

Portezuelo, 41.2°C
Chillan, 41.4°C (DMC station)
Chillán Quinchamalí, 43.0°C
San Nicolas, 41.1°C
Los Angeles Maria Dolores Airport, 42.2°C

Figure 2. Smoke settles over Santiago, Chile on January 20, 2017. Chile has endured weeks of extreme heat that has smashed numerous heat records, with Pudahuel Airport in western Santiago on January 20 hitting the hottest temperature ever recorded in the Santiago metropolitan area: 37.7°C (99.9°F). Santiago Observatory (with records back to 1866) set its all-time heat record on January 25, 2017 with 37.4°C, and Quinta Normal Observatory broke its all-time heat record in December 2016, with a reading of 37.3°C, beating a record that had stood 101 years. Image credit: Martin Bernetti/AFP/Getty Images.

Record heat and extreme drought lead to deadly Chile wildfires
Record heat and extreme drought in Chile are contributing to their worst wildfires in decades. On Thursday, the entire town of Santa Olga was destroyed by fire, with more than 1,000 building consumed including schools, nurseries, shops and a post office. As reported in The Guardian, Carlos Valenzuela, the mayor of the region, said: “Nobody can imagine what happened in Santa Olga. What we have experienced here is literally like Dante’s Inferno.” Authorities declared a state of emergency in Chile due to wildfires on January 20, and as of January 26, more than 100 fires were burning throughout O’Higgins and Maule regions. At least ten people have been killed by the fires, including four firefighters and two policemen. According to insurance broker Aon Benfield, the fires had consumed 578,000 acres of land as of January 26, and damages to the timber industry alone were estimated at $40 million. Hot, dry weather with high temperatures in the 90s are expected to continue for the next week in the Santiago area.

Chile’s ongoing megadrought partially attributed to human-caused climate change
Central Chile is enduring a decades-long megadrought that began in the late 1970s, with precipitation declines of about 7% per decade. According to a 2016 study by Boisier et al., “Anthropogenic and natural contributions to the Southeast Pacific precipitation decline and recent megadrought in central Chile”, this drought is unprecedented in historical records. While at least half of the change in precipitation can be blamed on natural causes, primarily due to atmospheric circulation changes from the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the authors estimated that a quarter of the rainfall deficit affecting this region since 2010 was due to human-caused climate change.

Jeff Masters

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/dantes-inferno-in-chile-alltime-national-heat-record-smashed-by-6

And RIGHT NOW, not 16 years ago like your report relied on, the North Pole is melting in the dead of Winter:

So Long, La Niña; Arctic Temperatures Soar 63°F in 24 Hours
By: Jeff Masters , 5:15 PM GMT on February 09, 2017

In its latest monthly advisory, issued Thursday, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) sounded the death knell for the 2016-17 La Niña. SSTs in the benchmark Niño 3.4 region (in the equatorial Pacific) warmed to 0.3°C below average during early February; SSTs of 0.5°C or more below average in this region are required to be classified as weak La Niña conditions. As further evidence of the demise of La Niña, subsurface cold waters across the equatorial Pacific have completely vanished, and much warmer-than-average waters built off the coast of Peru in late January and early February, bringing unusual El Niño-like flooding rains to that nation. The 2016 - 2017 La Niña event was one of the weakest and shorted-lived La Niñas on record, lasting just six months and peaking with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Niño3.4 region of 0.8° below average. According to CPC, only one other La Niña since 1950 has been this short and weak: the 1967 - 1968 event, which lasted five months, and also peaked at SSTs of 0.8°C below average in the Niño 3.4 region.

Figure 1. Average sea surface temperatures during January 2017, shown as departure from the long-term (1981-2010) average. Weak La Niña conditions were present in the Niño 3.4 region, but the waters were growing unusually warm along the coast of Peru in the Niño 1+2 region. Climate.gov figure from CPC data.

The forecast: Neutral this summer, then El Niño this fall?
In a Thursday ENSO Blog entry, NOAA/CPC’s Emily Becker reviews the El Niño forecast for the rest of 2017. Most computer models agree that neutral conditions will continue into the summer, and forecasters estimate an approximately 60% chance of neutral conditions lasting through the spring. After that, it gets complicated. We have a very difficult time predicting the future beyond the March–May period: the so-called spring predictability barrier. “In fact, a forecast made in June for the sea surface temperature in December (six months away) can be more successful than a forecast made in February for May (three months away)!” Becker relates. Some of the computer models are calling for a return of El Niño conditions by the second half of 2017. CPC’s current consensus forecast for the September—November 2017 period estimates a 12% chance of La Niña conditions, 40% chance of neutral conditions, and a 48% chance of El Niño. The latest Australian Bureau of Meteorology models are more aggressive about El Niño, showing development by this spring. If El Niño materializes in 2017, it would give us an unusual three-year series of El Niño/La Niña/El Niño: something that has only happened once since 1950—in 1963/1964/1965.

Figure 2. Weather data from Kap Morris Jesup, Greenland—the northernmost land weather observing station in the world—shows the remarkable surge of warm air that invaded the Arctic this week. The temperature trace (red line in top graph) soared 63°F (34.8°C) in 24 hours, from -29°F at 15 UTC February 7 to 33°F at 15 UTC February 8. The temperature peaked at 35°F (1.5°C) at 21 UTC February 8.

Summer in February in the Arctic: temperatures surge 63°F in 24 hours in Northern Greenland
The temperature at the northernmost land station in the world, Kap Morris Jesup, located on the northern coast of Greenland at 83.65°N latitude, soared to a remarkable 35°F (1.5°C) on Wednesday—beating the previous day’s high of -22°F by a shocking 57°, and marking a temperature more typical of June at this frigid location. The mercury skyrocketed an astonishing 63°F (34.8°C) in just 24 hours, from -29°F at 15 UTC February 7 to 33°F at 15 UTC February 8. As summarized by Jason Samenow of the Capital Weather Gang on February 6, the incredible warmth in the Arctic is due to a massive hurricane-force North Atlantic storm that bottomed out on Monday with a central pressure of 932 mb—a common reading in Category 4 hurricanes, and one of lowest pressures ever measured in a storm in this region. (He noted that the strongest North Atlantic winter storms on record—in December 1986 and January 1993—had pressures of 900 and 916 millibars, respectively.) The warm air flowing into the Arctic this week was reinforced by a second massive extratropical storm that pounded Iceland on Wednesday, which brought sustained winds of 61 mph, gusting to 91 mph, to the Reykjavik Airport. Warm air near the freezing point—about 50 to 60°F above average in temperature—likely came close to the North Pole on Thursday morning, according to the latest temperature anomaly maps from the University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer website. A drifting buoy located near the Pole, at about 87°N latitude, recorded temperatures above freezing once in November 2016 and once in December 2016, but fell short this time, hitting 29°F on Friday. The warm air in the Arctic this week continues a trend of record to near-record heat seen in the Arctic throughout the winter of 2016 - 2017. The warm air has helped bring about the lowest arctic sea ice extent ever recorded during January, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Bob Henson will have a review of Thursday’s Northeast U.S. snowstorm on Friday.

Jeff Masters

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/so-long-la-nia-arctic-temperatures-soar-63f-in-24-hours

Greenhouse Thermal Runaway is REAL. You’d have to be a real bible-thumper not to understand the mountain of evidence proving it.

TJ