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Coronavirus 'Effectively Eliminated' in New Zealand Following Comprehensive Approach of Jacinda Ardern's Government

Originally published at http://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/04/27/coronavirus-effectively-eliminated-new-zealand-following-comprehensive-approach

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Competence and leadership? Thy name is Jacinda. Great Job New Zealand!

Government WORKS if you elect the right people to the job.

Contrast the outcomes with the “Governments should be run like a business” environs. The most welcome words in The New Zealand Language?

I’m from the government and I’m here to help.

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Jacinda Ardern was the same leader who initiated the practice of burying the names of mass-shooters (Canada recently following suit). Another virus nipped in bud.

Many countries have pursued competent public-health policies. Canada, Australia, and New Zealand are all doing much better than the colossus USA. It’s not rocket science: suppress testing, give up on containment, and this bug will flood the landscape every chance it gets. More neglect = worse contagion. The numbers are irrefutable.

The book on what to do after the infection is everywhere, after containment has entirely failed, is being written by the virus today in Belgium, England, France, and Sweden. Those countries are just a week or two ahead of USA, a sneak-preview of where the non-containment strategy leads.

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Congratulations Jacinda! Not to play the spoiler, however, you do realize that in today’s globalized world no country is an island (apologies to John Donne) even if it is. Is New Zealand resilient enough to wait out all connection with the rest of the world until robust measures are developed to ensure reinfection from without does not occur? I wish you and your fellow Kiwis my sincerest congratulations and best wishes on the challenges I have expressed, I am sure that you are thoughtfully making plans as I type.

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5 weeks of focused action by any government will effectively eradicat this virus within any country - period. It’s not easy to accomplish anywhere - population of 5 million, 50 million, 500 million doesn’t matter. You do it the same way.

You need a concerted national response, you need a competent leadership, you need to support the populace so people dont think they are going to starve or become homeless - you know, the basics. Start with strict quarantine for 5 weeks. Then ratchet down levels accordingly while keeping your damn border closed while the rest of the world catches up.

On our current course this country is guaranteed to experience between 600000 to 1 million deaths within the next year.

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T’is the arrogance of the white supremacist that has brought us to this devastation.

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Economist Michael Hudson on the corona virus bailout. Somehow I don’t think New Zealand did this.

-ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?reload=9&v=N-8m5fBbLgQ

Peace
Po

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a country left out was Taiwan who has also been on it from early on. Sent investigators to China to scope out what was really happening and then because they had experienced other pandemics, folks immediately started wearing masks and temperatures being taken everywhere in the nation. Heard this from my own doc who was there in January visiting her mother. She came back in late January wearing a mask on a plane and has been fine ever since.

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Kind of interesting, to see our trolls show up, over an article about how a grown-up, pragmatic & astute government can protect their citizens against everything BUT Trump loving terrorists. Anybody else remember when we still CHOSE our leadership, based on level headed enlightened self interest?

~https://truthout.org/articles/covid-deaths-in-us-will-soon-surpass-number-of-americans-killed-in-vietnam-war/

~https://mronline.org/2020/04/27/how-the-poor-die-in-new-york

~https://amp.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c?__twitter_impression=true

~https://aeon.co/essays/a-bioethicist-on-the-hidden-costs-of-lockdown-in-italy?utm_medium=feed&utm_source=atom-feed

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“As a result, we are now in a terrible mess”. Dude, that’s called “winning”. Get with the effing program.

Very much so. White-supremacist M$MBS coverage of the outbreak early on in China and Iran always carried the implication they’re only having so much difficulty because they’re not with-it, not skillful and knowledgeable like white people. It turns out Western Europe, by and large, was nearly as clueless as USA. Especially UK & Sweden, where they’re especially too white to bother with public health prudence. That might lighten the load of change in the white man’s pocket.

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Additionally, it also includes a starting point that is not the same in each country. The U.S. has significant health factors that play a role in outcomes. (chronic illness’) Now it is determined that air pollution is also a factor because the virus can be transmitted by particulate matter.

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This is what happens when you have competent, decisive leadership and an intelligent, engaged citizenry.

WE should allow no white males in substantial political positions unless they are eunuchs, this goes double if they are protestant white southern patriarchs.

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I’ve been sharing the ratio of inactive cases to total cases as a “course-complete” notion. For instance, when only half of total cases are active, an outbreak is approximately at its peak, starting to decline. When I rank countries according to this metric, all of the best examples rise to the top (COVID-19 stats from this morning, of countries with 1,000 reported cases or more):

>      COUNTRY                  MORTALITY     CASES   DEATHS  PER-CASE   COURSE-
>                              PER 100,000                    FATALITY  COMPLETE
>   1. China                        0.32     84,286    4,636     5.50%    98.98%
>   2. Thailand                     0.07      2,931       52     1.77%    90.79%
>   3. Iceland                      2.93      1,792       10     0.56%    90.29%
>   4. Luxembourg                  14.06      3,723       88     2.36%    85.74%
>   5. Austria                      6.02     15,229      542     3.56%    84.21%
>   6. Australia                    0.33      6,716       83     1.24%    84.05%
>   7. South Korea                  0.47     10,738      243     2.26%    83.88%
>   8. Iran                         6.80     90,481    5,710     6.31%    83.30%
>   9. New Zealand                  0.39      1,469       19     1.29%    81.62%
>  10. Switzerland                 18.60     29,061    1,610     5.54%    80.56%
>  11. Germany                      7.13    157,770    5,976     3.79%    76.36%
>  12. Hong Kong                    0.05      1,038        4     0.39%    74.76%

Theoretically, the 75% mark should be the point of steepest decline (in new cases or deaths), so all 12 of these look well past their peaks. In the most consequential mortality column here, only Hong Kong, China, and Australia are doing better than New Zealand.

Open question: Is warmer Southern Hemisphere weather helping tamp down the virus somewhat? (An affirmative answer would be good news for us in the warming Northern Hemisphere.)

I’m sure she’ll also get 99.9% of the vote, assuming she bothers with an election.

Note: per your table and data I see in Google:

 Current Cases,   Recovered, Deaths

NZ: 1122 1180 19
World: 3M 879K 208K

This puts the average per case fatality including current cases at 208/(3e3+879+208) at 5% and as you show a lot of countries have done better (if their numbers are to be believed), but being smaller they don’t drive the average, we and China do for now.

The New Zealand per case fatality of 19/(1122+1180+19) = 0.8% is very good, with only Iceland and Hong Kong doing better.

Can you remind of us on where you get this data again? I’d like to see the entire ranking by COURSE-COMPLETE and by PER-CASE FATALITY.

Hi dara,

I get the raw counts from Covidly – the best aggregating source I’ve found (another source inexplicably froze up last week). From there I scrape the data off the webpage and do my own (hard to screw up, frankly – but I’ll find a way) simple ratio-calculations, with population data for each country scraped from elsewhere. (That-all’s what I’m up to when I play around in Python.) Covidly is definitely worth wandering about in, anyhow – especially the Graph section:

~https://covidly.com/graph?country=United%20States#new

I’m flattered if anyone ever even glances at these text-dumps of mine. The sorting by case-fatality is another interesting view. Hungary bubbles close to the top with the other bad actors. I’ll plant a fresh sort (by fatality, of 86 countries or so) in this thread a bit later, just for my one and only data-fan!

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Just as an aside New Zealand uses the Westminster system of Parliament much like Canada and the United Kingdom. The Queen is considered head of State albeit she has no real power. Unlike Canada and the UK however New Zealand uses a PR system to elect its members. Since that system introduced there has not been a single party majority meaning the Governing party has to form coalitions.

One of the arguments against PR here in Canada is that it leads to spaghetti parliaments where nothing gets done and or allows fringe groups to garner seats. While new Zealand has a small population and this might play a factor, they do not seem to have those issues.

If one looks to the USA as comparison with its duopoly, either party will readily alienate a significant number of their base as “they have no where else to go”. See the Democrats as example. The labour party in New Zealand can not afford to do that as members they alienate WILL go to another party and it more then a little likely that new alternate party will be needed to form a coalition.

This is in fact how you “hold their feet to the fire” . You do not do this by surrendering your vote and then trying to hold feet to the fire from within the same party.

It is here that people like Solomon and Chomsky and Winship and indeed Sanders get it wrong.

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Somewhere in USA, someone just qualified as the millionth reported case! Seems like that person should get a free toaster, or something, if they make it…

Global COVID-19 stats as of Tuesday, April 28, 12:00 AM
88 countries with more than 1,000 cases, sorted by case-fatality

>      COUNTRY                  MORTALITY     CASES   DEATHS  PER-CASE   COURSE-
>                              PER 100,000                    FATALITY  COMPLETE
>   1. Belgium                     62.19     46,687    7,207    15.44%    38.74%
>   2. France                      35.71    165,964   23,310    14.04%    41.94%
>   3. Italy                       44.62    199,414   26,977    13.53%    46.94%
>   4. United Kingdom              31.12    157,749   21,125    13.39%    13.90%
>   5. Algeria                      0.98      3,517      432    12.28%    56.58%
>   6. Sweden                      22.52     18,926    2,274    12.02%    17.32%
>   7. Netherlands                 26.41     38,343    4,526    11.80%    12.64%
>   8. Hungary                      3.01      2,649      291    10.98%    30.46%
>   9. Spain                       50.31    229,422   23,521    10.25%    62.92%
>  10. Mexico                       1.11     15,529    1,434     9.23%    67.74%
>  11. Indonesia                    0.28      9,096      765     8.41%    21.06%
>  12. Egypt                        0.33      4,782      337     7.05%    32.89%
>  13. Brazil                       2.17     67,446    4,603     6.83%    53.00%
>  14. Philippines                  0.47      7,777      511     6.57%    18.55%
>  15. Iran                         6.91     91,472    5,806     6.35%    83.89%
>  16. Puerto Rico                  2.94      1,416       84     5.93%     6.00%
>  17. Slovenia                     3.99      1,402       83     5.92%    21.68%
>  18. Switzerland                 19.24     29,164    1,665     5.71%    81.83%
>  19. Canada                       7.35     49,043    2,773     5.65%    42.90%
>  20. Romania                      3.33     11,339      641     5.65%    33.35%
>  21. United States               17.08  1,002,510   56,523     5.64%    16.95%
>  22. Ireland                     22.32     19,648    1,102     5.61%    52.60%
>  23. China                        0.32     84,286    4,636     5.50%    98.98%
>  24. Greece                       1.30      2,534      136     5.37%    28.14%
>  25. Bolivia                      0.45      1,014       53     5.23%    14.89%
>  26. Argentina                    0.44      4,003      197     4.92%    33.40%
>  27. Denmark                      7.37      8,797      427     4.85%    74.74%
>  28. Iraq                         0.22      1,847       88     4.76%    74.39%
>  29. Poland                       1.49     11,902      562     4.72%    25.44%
>  30. North Macedonia              3.12      1,399       65     4.65%    44.17%
>  31. Colombia                     0.50      5,597      253     4.52%    26.14%
>  32. Dominican Republic           2.60      6,293      282     4.48%    20.26%
>  33. Bulgaria                     0.83      1,387       58     4.18%    20.19%
>  34. Finland                      3.48      4,695      193     4.11%    57.36%
>  35. Cuba                         0.49      1,389       56     4.03%    41.83%
>  36. Morocco                      0.44      4,120      162     3.93%    20.80%
>  37. Portugal                     9.10     24,027      928     3.86%     9.51%
>  38. Germany                      7.31    158,758    6,126     3.86%    75.98%
>  39. Bosnia & Herzegovina         1.83      1,565       60     3.83%    45.94%
>  40. Austria                      6.10     15,274      549     3.59%    84.53%
>  41. Cameroon                     0.22      1,705       58     3.40%    50.62%
>  42. Afghanistan                  0.15      1,703       57     3.35%    16.27%
>  43. India                        0.07     29,451      939     3.19%    27.42%
>  44. Estonia                      3.77      1,647       50     3.04%    17.18%
>  45. Czechia                      2.08      7,445      223     3.00%    41.06%
>  46. Nigeria                      0.02      1,337       40     2.99%    22.06%
>  47. Moldova                      2.53      3,481      102     2.93%    29.50%
>  48. Croatia                      1.44      2,039       59     2.89%    60.08%
>  49. Ecuador                      3.76     23,240      663     2.85%     9.55%
>  50. Lithuania                    1.51      1,449       41     2.83%    35.54%
>  51. Japan                        0.30     13,705      385     2.81%    16.66%
>  52. Panama                       3.87      6,021      167     2.77%    10.33%
>  53. Peru                         2.37     28,699      782     2.73%    32.08%
>  54. Norway                       3.78      7,599      205     2.70%     3.12%
>  55. Turkey                       3.44    112,261    2,900     2.58%    32.68%
>  56. Bangladesh                   0.09      5,913      152     2.57%     4.79%
>  57. Ukraine                      0.50      9,009      220     2.44%    12.03%
>  58. Luxembourg                  14.06      3,729       88     2.36%    86.11%
>  59. South Korea                  0.48     10,752      244     2.27%    84.62%
>  60. Pakistan                     0.14     14,079      301     2.14%    25.10%
>  61. Serbia                       1.85      8,275      162     1.96%    16.57%
>  62. South Africa                 0.15      4,793       90     1.88%    32.61%
>  63. Thailand                     0.08      2,938       54     1.84%    92.10%
>  64. Malaysia                     0.31      5,820       99     1.70%    69.69%
>  65. Armenia                      0.98      1,808       29     1.60%    48.51%
>  66. Chile                        1.04     13,813      198     1.43%    54.48%
>  67. Israel                       2.36     15,555      204     1.31%    47.60%
>  68. Azerbaijan                   0.22      1,678       22     1.31%    70.56%
>  69. Slovakia                     0.33      1,381       18     1.30%    30.48%
>  70. New Zealand                  0.39      1,472       19     1.29%    83.76%
>  71. Australia                    0.33      6,725       84     1.25%    84.55%
>  72. Cote d'Ivoire                0.05      1,164       14     1.20%    44.07%
>  73. Russia                       0.54     87,147      794     0.91%     9.34%
>  74. Kazakhstan                   0.13      2,860       25     0.87%    26.22%
>  75. Saudi Arabia                 0.41     18,811      144     0.77%    14.22%
>  76. United Arab Emirates         0.83     10,839       82     0.76%    20.04%
>  77. Ghana                        0.04      1,550       11     0.71%    10.71%
>  78. Kuwait                       0.52      3,288       22     0.67%    31.45%
>  79. Belarus                      0.79     11,289       75     0.66%    16.08%
>  80. Guinea                       0.05      1,163        7     0.60%    21.75%
>  81. Iceland                      2.93      1,792       10     0.56%    91.18%
>  82. Oman                         0.20      2,049       10     0.49%    18.25%
>  83. Uzbekistan                   0.02      1,904        8     0.42%    47.27%
>  84. Hong Kong                    0.05      1,038        4     0.39%    76.20%
>  85. Bahrain                      0.47      2,723        8     0.29%    45.02%
>  86. Djibouti                     0.20      1,035        2     0.19%    46.28%
>  87. Singapore                    0.24     14,423       14     0.10%     7.69%
>  88. Qatar                        0.35     11,244       10     0.09%     9.57%
> 
>      GLOBAL                       2.71  3,063,366  211,641     6.91%    36.31%

Thanks! Holy cow - what is going on in Belgium and France?

Hmm, my calculation I showed above for New Zealand differs. So this chart has:
19 deaths out of 1472 cases (1.29% alright)

So when I read what pops out from Google new zealand covid 19 cases:
1122, 1180, 19 for current cases, recovered, deaths (actually the first number is called ‘confirmed’ but I thought that had to mean current cases and not total cases as it is less than recovered), why isn’t the fatality rate 0.8%? Am I missing something basic?