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Could Trump Really Launch a War With Iran?

#1

Could Trump Really Launch a War With Iran?

Conn Hallinan

Keeping track of the Trump administration’s foreign policy is like trying to track a cat on a hot tin roof: We’re pulling out of Syria (not right away). We’re leaving Afghanistan (sometime in the future). Mexico is going to pay for a wall (no, it isn’t). Saudi Arabia, Russia, the European Union, China, Turkey, North Korea — one day friends, another day foes.

Even with a scorecard, it’s hard to tell who’s on first.

Except for Iran, where a policy of studied hostility has been consistent from the beginning.

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#2

One good look at Google Earth will reveal that we ain’t going to be rolling tanks and materiel into Iran. It is far too mountainous. Not having an aircraft carrier battle group on the Caspian Sea probably also impinges on a direct assault on Tehran. Alexander the Great could take on Persia in the days of cavalry, but those days are long gone. A seventh grade science project could probably debunk any plausible invasion scenario, which leaves only economic sanctions and/or bombing. If regime change is sought who is hiding in the wings to serve as Empire’s puppet? Iran is much more resilient than Venezuela by virtue of its keeping its distance from the West. Insouciant Americans would probably tolerate war with Iran. That is the real tragedy. Willful ignorance will be cited in the history books as one of the chief forces in the destruction of the American experiment–that is if “civilization” can be persuaded to still record history in an increasingly Instagram-infused world.

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#3

Trump is in the White House to make sure the US controls the oil in Iran. That was the Bush/Cheney plan after iraq. That is why Trumpco is doing the coup on Venezuela’s oil. Obama stuck it to them just before leaving office with his deal with Iran knowing they had tried to use “mini-nukes” on the bunkers in Iran. Trump destroyed relationships with Europe and democracies because Trump, Putin and other Dictators prefer no democracy.

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#4

Trump would launch a war if he saw himself cornered into doing something that detracted from his adoring worshipers. The emergency he will declare about the wall is a small-scale version of launching a war. Trump understands why White America idolizes him.

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#5

Israel’s problem with Iran is its support for Hezbollah and the Palestinians. It’s not particularly worried about its non-existent nuclear weapons program: If it was, it would not have had Trump and company pull out of the 2015 agreement. If Iran’s economy can be sufficiently trashed by sanctions or whatever that it has little ability to support the Palestinians and Hezbollah, then Israel could call off its attack dogs like Trump, Bolton, & Pompeo and forget about what regime runs Iran.

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#6

Bolton will almost certainly engineer airstrikes on Iran. That is likely to speed the process of building banking multi-currency exchanges that bypass the petrodollar. If/when that exchange is completed, the US economy will shrink rather drastically.

I have no idea how far Russia, China, India, and the EU want to stick their necks out in challenging the US, but they’re clearly more willing to than they were pre-Trump.

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#7

Methodically defang any country within striking distance of Israel first, Iran included. Leave only those who would think twice or thrice about retaliating on Israel. That makes the middle-east not a prize for the OFFENSE, but a prize for the DEFENSE. Same end, different means.

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#8

It does seem war with Iran is very likely, compared to other regional involvements. An attack on Iran that destabilized or even threatened regime change would be extremely dangerous. The country is of huge strategic importance to Russia. The risk of a pro-Washington government in Tehran would destabilize its own near-abroad; something Moscow could not ignore. The US has its own near-abroad. Intervention of Venezuela could result in a ‘Latin American Spring’, which could have huge negative consequences for the United States and might require its attention more than the Middle East.

The signs are ominous, not just regards Iran, but in other potential theaters of war, any of which could start world war three, which history suggests we are moving towards.

https://www.ghostsofhistory.wordpress.com/

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