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Days Before Hurricane Expected to Hit New Orleans, City Endures 10 Inches of Rain as Mississippi River Swells

Originally published at http://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/07/10/days-hurricane-expected-hit-new-orleans-city-endures-10-inches-rain-mississippi

There’s a little bit of over-hype with this system in the story at this time. Not sure of the source for the NHC predictions in the story, but I just checked local weather(and believe me here on the Gulf Coast, all local stations use NHC predictions), their NHC predictions, as of 10 min. ago, have a certainty of tropical storm formation, nowhere does it say 100% certainty of it becoming a hurricane, just a possibility if the storm lingers over the hot waters of the gulf. And like most other areas now, the gulf waters are hotter than in the past for this time of the year. This is not meant to downplay the seriousness for extensive rain for N.O. (remember a large portion of the city is below sea level), but they are not in the predicted path of this storm, just the edge of the cone. The prediction “cones”, though very wide and uncertain years ago, have become much smaller and much more accurate in the last 20 years. Everyone in these areas should be watching for changes with this system, but over hyping tropical storm systems serves no ones interest.

Hey Recon, I see you and have you covered, the Gulf surface temp was at 89.4F this morning, almost bath water temp. Please be safe, Gilbert

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Thanks Gilbert, I’m good, about 25 mi. off the coast with 50 ft. of elevation, but I appreciate the concern. The soil here is like a sponge, it can absorb much more rainfall than most parts of the country. I live about 18 mi. west of Mobile Al., in 1994 (I think), a tropical storm came up Mobile Bay, sat there for 2 days dumping rain, I got 46 inches in 48 hours with no severe flooding, true story.
Yes the gulf is a good bit hotter than it should be this time of year, I suspect this will become the new norm for the future.
Hope you’re hanging in there OK buddy. Great website you’ve got there by the way, you’ve got talent.

Have to update my above post, the reporter must have ESP, they did widened the cone to take in N.O., but they still wont take a hit, unless the path changes.

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:slight_smile: Years ago the Stones did a song about being high and dry :))) I’m gladdened to hear all is well.

Thanks for the complement, the site is a bit of work. You might want to look at page 4 of the climate emergency, there are some new mappings out by NWS and they are impressive and fun to use and may give your reporter a run for his money

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For New Orleans sake, I worry about an 18-inch rain dump on the Mississippi River drainage basin.

Glad though, to hear you’re on high ground. Side note: I attended my first Mullet Toss at the FloraBama this year. Your Redneck Riviera is something else. I lived in the ATL for 7 years and was awarded “cracker” status by my Southern-fried buds, for whatever that’s worth. I’m back up in Michigan now (plenty of rednecks up here, too) – it rained buckets here all Spring but we’re drying out and it’s been Dixie hot for 2 weeks.

Okay, weather and culture beat reports now over…

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AH yes the FloraBama, normally I hate that bar (hate country music and a overload of rednecks), but the festival they have every year usually brings in enough out of town people to make it fun. If you’ve got cracker status you’re good to go dude. Hope you ventured a little farther east when you were here, Destin-Fort Walton area has the most beautiful water along the coast, if not you might want to put it on you’re list for next time, you wont be disappointed. Just make sure you avoid the spring break time of year, it becomes a zoo then.
N.O. is usually the only area in the lower basin that has major problems(that below sea level thing), levees and spillways can divert it away from other areas. And most don’t know how deep the Mississippi is in the lower section, unlike the upper and middle sections that flood much more frequently, I don’t remember the #'s, but it’s flow capacity is incredible.
I saw the flooding reports from up there, truly devastating. Read where some farmers have given up planting this year, crops wont mature before first frost, guess we’ll all pay for that at the grocery store in the future.

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