The plunge of global oil prices began in June 2014, when benchmark Brent crude was selling at $114 per barrel.
Lots of speculation here…I would say the author is being optimistic.
I would say the author is one of the most knowledgeable experts on oil, energy and geopolitics in the world. Klare is not known for being particularly optimistic so if he appears so it is probably well founded.
Then the only reason the US is drilling in the Arctic is to beat Russia and others to it.
The author is optimistic and given the variables as stated, he has a right to expect … a glut of oil… reducing prices?
Something seems missing? Oh yeah… won’t lower prices increase use? High oil prices would discourage use?
Low prices at the pump keeps people using their cars more often. Low oil prices discourage the shift to alternatives. Why would the Saudis keep pumping in a low price market then? I think it is because low prices for oil discourages the immediate pressing need for alternatives for many people.
In recent years as alternatives have taken off big time, especially in new solar and wind installations, it seems hardly coincidental that we went from the much mentioned 'Era of Peak Oil’ to an oil glut less than a decade later?
Yes shale oil and fracking and tar sands and so forth but are we supposed to believe that these technologies didn’t exist 10 years ago in the midst of that bit of hysteria called ‘Peak Oil’. Well they did exist.
So here we are Dill baby, Drilling and Frack baby, Fracking as well as oil shales and tar sands and deep water drilling and… well gee whiz we didn’t really have a peak oil era at all… it was kind of like a trick to give the oil companies a free hand around regulations and negative public opinion so that they could frack, drill, deep water drill (ala BP) etc.
So they pulled a fast one and got their way. Meanwhile there is that pesky annoyance of people wanting to save the planet. So while the fossil fuel industry celebrated an increased ability to pollute through fracking etc… they watched the era of solar and wind start to ruin the party.
You almost have to ask why they even bothered to develop new oil since they knew we have so much? You also have to wonder at the coincidental timing of a rapid drop in price from ‘Peak Oil’ to ‘Oil Glut’ prices per barrel mainly as a competitor for solar and wind.
The only other thing that could justify a new ‘large supply’ oil source like up in the untouched arctic is a big war…a WW2 sized big war. That’d restore oil to its former glory as being indispensable. In fact this glut of oil coincidentally sees saber rattling by two superpowers but no drawn swords seem likely (as yet anyway). But surpluses of oil make big war possible. They also make the switch to alternatives far less urgent or likely.
A glut of oil is like the lure of the ‘Dark Side of the Force’ in terms of energy. I guess any glut of oil just doesn’t make me optimistic…
… but this one sure does make me suspicious… and a bit worried rather than optimistic.
Yup, no doubt - especially in the US where fuel taxes are miniscule. Big gas-guzzling SUV sales will accelerate, plane ticket prices will plummet, public transit ridership, will decline, electric vehicle production will be discontinued and with high demand, prices will bounce back nicely.
Dream on Mr Klare!
US Shale oil production has already declined see the best analyst on this from the
old http://oildrum.com Peak Oil website , Ron Patterson
[enter link description here]US Shale Declining 1
There is still only so much oil on the planet and the cancellation of this oil projects inevitably means less oil in the future. Already in the Auto-Addicted US we see unfortunately a slight uptick in driving which has been declining since 2005.
But again that cannot last…
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I would say you are completely correct, but optimism is our only hope. Furthermore, at my advanced age optimism will see me thru. As for the rest of you, good luck. Anyway, just follow the Keeling Curve year by year. Despite all the BS about micro-victories that we all love to hear, the Keeling Curve is the final judgement.
Low price for a commodity encourages people to buy more of it. Low oil prices will reduce the competitiveness of renewable energy generation. To prevent this, we ought to put a tax on oil so as to make it as expensive as it was a couple of years ago.