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Enjoying the Weather? Just Wait a Few Years


#1

Enjoying the Weather? Just Wait a Few Years.

Nika Knight, staff writer

New research shows that most Americans prefer the warmer winters they've been experiencing in recent decades as a result of climate change, particularly since the milder winter temperatures haven't been accompanied by more scorching summers.

That's about to change, scientists say.


#3

"Nice weather for the end of a planet" - Wereflea

Despite everything else, they really don't know what will happen by mid century much less century's end. These last two excessively warm winters were not expected for example. They were not predicted. The thing that we all should be concerned about is not what happens 80 years from now but whether right now that we have entered a catastrophic rapid warming event. What if it doesn't return to normal winters ever again? What these scientists report is what can be predicted which is asking for certainty based on speculation. We don't know what will happen based on the past record. It is a guesstimate at best.

What if it doesn't go back to normal winters with snow and cold weather? Is that scary? What if every summer becomes dust bowl drought and vast forest fires and a thousand a month tornadoes and superstorm hurricanes? That's this year? What will it be like in twenty years?

We don't know. But this winter sure was 'Nice weather for the end of a planet' however I first made that quip back in the late 1980's/1990's when for the first time in the northeast that January temperatures reached 80F. Back then it was only for a few days, not like now.


#4

Please recall, when reading any new scientific assessment of specific climate thresholds and effects, that there is a very solid track record over the past 15 years now, of actual rates of change outstripping the "worst case" scenarios that sober scientists have sketched.

So when this report notes:
"By the end of the century, 88 percent of Americans will be experiencing what they perceive to be worsening weather, the study found. The predicted worsening of America's weather will likely have ramifications on policy, as "public concern may rise once people's everyday experiences of climate change effects start to become less pleasant..." "

Readers should amplify the predicted effects, and accelerate the predicted rates of change, and multiply by other effects that are not discussed in this narrow assessment of public reaction to changing temperature.

With temperatures spiraling up over the past three years, at a new accelerating pace far outstripping predicted rates of increase, it verges on disingenuous to write about what "public opinion" will be in 2100, as if society and ecology will be stable except for this annoying discomfort. Multiple key elements of the ecology are changing at unprecedented and accelerating rates.

Massive social and economic disruptions triggered by climate change are already beginning around the world. If 2016 is not the year when revulsion at "business as usual" begins to reach critical mass in hardest hit areas, i'd expect 2017 to be.


#5

What have some recent summers been in Oklahoma and Texas if not scorching. In the northeast recent winters have been anything but mild, particularly 2014 and 2015. For many people the weather has not been that enjoyable but certainly with global warming even worse heat waves are eventually sure to be here.


#6

The "bitter cold winters" of 2014 to 2015 were not that abnormally cold. They were only perceived as such by a long run of winters where much above normal.


#8

You are so correct in that most in my country are brain dead when it comes to the dangers of AGW. I foresaw this nightmare when I was back in university in 1987. And now it's all starting to unravel. We get what we deserve. I just wish we didn't have to kill off other species.


#9

I fear that the 2020's will be the decade of great global panic and chaos. Societal collapse begins (and already has in some regions) and is fully complete by the 2030's. Pure speculation, of course. But I think that's where we're all headed.


#10

Actually, no... Looks like they are more towards the bottom of the models, and, depending who you want to believe, even lower.

Also from the Guardian
" Since 1990, global surface temperatures have warmed at a rate of about 0.15°C per decade, within the range of model projections of about 0.10 to 0.35°C per decade"


#11

I agree, in fact what they were was a return for two seasons to the kind of winters I remember as a child and teen in the 50's and 60's. Winters back them started in late Nov. where I live and ended in mid- to late April. Since 1980 that all changed . Now winters are much shorter then back then.


#12

Thanks for the very interesting link, although I did not read anything there about the Natives lacking a word for this.


#14

What words do we have in our language except scientific jargon which they have as much right to use as we do. So what our our words for meteorological phenomenon? Climate change? Lol. Global warming? Like Native people up north don't go to school and have computers or TV.


#15

Um? What is our word for a once in a 30 year thunderstorm? Just asking. Many languages solve the problem of not having words for things by creating hybrids. English having multiple roots such as Greek, Latin, Germanic, Celtic, as well as middle languages like French (late Latin) and later additions - is particularly adaptive and unusually flexible about incorporating new words taken from many sources. An unfair comparison that is not that big a deal but more hyperbolic than anything else. Did it ever used to rain up in Greenland? Do we have a word to describe the yearly pre breakup stage of the floating ice cap where there never was an icecap? Nope we use theirs... And vice versa.

What is our word for a storm like Sandy? We call it a megastorm! A hybrid word that basically uses two languages to say big storm...lol. Feel primitive yet?


#16

Lamonte,

Your Faux News brain isn't cutting it.

Those are global AVERAGES. They don't show the extremes experienced locally. For example, where I live in the tropics right now, it's 98 degrees F for a week instead of the normal 80 degrees, but it's extremely cold in Siberia so they average out.

Get it?

An Ice Age doesn't mean it's cold. It means extremely unstable temps destroying the planet. Glaciers got put down the same time the tropics burned away on the Equator on the last "Ice Age" that started 17,000 years ago.

It's so hot here, all the rivers are drying up and people are blocking the roads demanding the government feed them since all the crops burned away.

Global Warming is real, pal.


#18

"Many Americans are just one level above brain dead"

This has been Morris Berman's premise for many, many years: http://morrisberman.blogspot.com


#19

Been all over this ball and moved to the P.I.

Wall Street busted my Union in the late 80's and then off-shored my job in the 90's. After we trained everybody, they tried to replace us with minimum wage Asian pilots. We sic-ed the state department on them for violating the LPP's (Labor Protection Provisions of the 1978 Deregulation Act) or else their merger swallowing my airline was not going to be approved by the gov.

So I married out here and have a family here. We're in the dry season but it's never been this hot for so long. The power is failing every day since too many AC's are on and Wall Street is stealing the people's power companies for their new off-shored call centers and factories. CD did a story last week on the dying farmers on Mindanao who keep blocking the road since all their rivers dried up and the crops burned. They got shot at by the army, so it's getting ugly down there. And we all know what is coming again this year: Super Typhoons in July/Aug that kill thousands. We only used to get one every eight years or so. Now CAT 5s are everywhere, every year, and ONE INCH PER HOUR rain from hell goes for days! I had to build a huge dyke since the river keeps going into my house....


#21

This is the sort of crap that in fact goes on. This open pit coal mine was recently opened in Texas on traditional First nations territory where the law regarding the same was simply ignored by the Government. The coal is low grade and deemed dirty coal and by law can not be burned in the USA due to environmental laws.

So what does the owner do? Strip mines it, ships it to Mexico just over the border and the coal is burned there.


#22

So we're not going by averages anymore now? They don't back up the GW mantra enough?

Sure GW is real, it's been heating up about 0.15C per decade.


#23

I don't agree with you. For one thing there were records snow accumulations in DC, Baltimore, and Philly in 2014 and in Boston in 2015 (well over 100 inches). And I think December 2013 was the coldest or second coldest December on record and February 2015 was the coldest February on record. In any event I think you will find there were a lot of records for both cold months and snowfall accumulation. But there is a widely held belief by scientists that this was due to global warming as the lack of ice in the Arctic affected the polar vortex bringing Arctic air into the northeast. This past winter was more "enjoyable" than the previous two but was still no picnic except for December when it was actually warm enough much of the time to the time to actually have a picnic.


#24

There entirely too many variables when it comes to trying to determine the effects of human caused global warming and this confuses a lot of people.

As example it higher levels of snowfall in certain regions was predicted in the model. This because warmer temperatures cause more evaporation and this mosten laden air when cooled creates more snow.

The melting of the ice caps cools the gulf stream which leads to cooler temperatures in western Europe.

And so on

When plant and animal species retreat South because it too cold in the ecosystem they inhabit , than will I accept that cooling goes on.

That these species drift further and further North, something I have seen in my lifetime means I can only conclude warming goes on.


#25

Like a child you want things simple. Extreme weather events? You've heard the phrase said a hundred times but now you pretend like it doesn't exist. You constantly seek to deceive people which is becoming bizarre because it serves no rational purpose. Is this your big deal in life to continually try to confuse people about so many issues? But the proof is out there! Just not to those who want to deceive others. The thing is that you are always here on a progressive site? If all you ever do is try to muddy the truth then it is very strange that you stay among those whom you dislike so much and do so by pretending to be someone you are not. This is your big deal in life? This crap?

Seriously you are one of those people who say - Look it is cold in winter, so where is global warming? One extreme nor'easter storm and you pretend that negates year after year of rising global temperatures? People say a hundred years of global **average temperatures and you say it was cold in Feb one year.

The thing is that this stuff you do is really kind of pathetic and you are always wrong or skewing the truth and making it a lie instead. Get a life!