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Final Poll in Iowa Gives Edge to Sanders, But Has Bernie Already Won?


#1

Final Poll in Iowa Gives Edge to Sanders, But Has Bernie Already Won?

Lauren McCauley, staff writer

While the latest poll before the pivotal Iowa caucus on Monday shows Bernie Sanders holding a slight edge over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton, observers argue that the campaign's clear momentum and success in bringing a bold populist agenda to the mainstream already signifies a substantial 'win' for the once-longshot candidate.


#2

" Sanders is putting the powers that be on notice."

Yeah, and if Bernie wins Iowa and N.H. those HRC Wall Street powers may start to get real worried!


#3

I hope that Mr. Sanders does win... but if the elites who control the vote counts and media decide otherwise, the real question will be... where will all this momentum, this current of populist support aimed at meaningful changes to our nation's pro-rich, pro-war, pro-corporate policies go?

The elites managed to use martial muscle (police) to put Occupy Wall Street back into its "bottle."

This time, the crowds are larger and tapped into the rightful desire to see this nation return to the post W.W. II values/New Deal style that have been suffocated out of the political equation in recent years.


#6

Here is an interesting video, that is rather reassuring, about protecting the vote count:


#7

"Win" in Iowa is usually about exceeding expectations. Hillary might say here that according to internal polls that only she could see (honk!), she only expected about 40% of the caucus vote but now she has momentum.

Early Bernie supporters have a cartoon 10 months ago of a little tiny 6 inch tall Bernie sitting on a chair next to an enormous Hillary, thinking about how to move Hillary to the left. Yes, Bernie has won.

My favorite statistic, from NBC News last night, rather buried: Hillary has 4,200 supporters on the ground. Bernie has 15,000.


#8

Last time around the vote counting in Iowa got screwed up and Rick Santorum found out he was the real winner about three weeks after the caucus. Let's hope things are go better this time. Based on all the polls it looks really close. Clinton probably has a slight advantage but the turnout matters. The Clinton campaign has an app ready to switch Clinton votes to O'Malley in order to deny Sanders votes if O'Malley is close to 15% so that could be the difference. Obama pulled that on Clinton in 2008 and now she plans to use that strategy. It looks like the weather in the western part of Iowa should keep down the turnout so that could be a factor. Other factors are a poll showing that Clinton supporters are more enthusiastic about their candidate than Sanders supporters and more have made up their mind. Basically I think it is too close to call and both sides should be ready to spin a win or a loss into a favorable story for their side.


#9

My grandpa, a veteran of Pearl Harbor--which, by the way, he said all his Navy buddies at the time were sure was allowed by their own govt. in order to get the U.S. to enter the war, a conspiracy scoffed at until basically proven correct--my grandpa said shortly before his death several years ago that we U.S. people must have 3 things to continue as any kind of democracy:
-free education pre-K through all college
-the right to living-wage employment or a living-wage income
-free, good quality healthcare
This would not be my short list, with its blindness to the particular need to also address the persisting legacy of enslavement of Black people and genocide of Native Americans, but it shows the values of a "Great Generation" white guy from the midwest, my grandpa.
Sanders' campaign is giving voice to this democratic triumvirate at the moment. My grandpa grew up through the Great Depression, ate a lot of moldy, vermin-infested bread and sometimes went hungry as he helped scrounge for the family. He also was on the first U.S. ship to sail into Hiroshima Bay after the U.S. dropped the A-bombs on Japan. He told me it was like looking at where a city should have been, but instead it was gone, just embers left. His ship was there--the first U.S. ship to arrive--not to help the Japanese survivors but to evacuate Australian POW survivors and then leave. It was only years later that he was able to see how in the euphoria of the end of WWII, he had nearly entirely forgotten Hiroshima. Only later, helped by voices of dissent penetrating his consciousness, did he begin to realize the war crimes of his own government, even though he'd witnessed them years before as a young man.

U.S. Great Depression values--the New Deal, the Four Freedoms--certainly uplifted human values for many, but they also were conjoined with inhuman U.S. wartime policies (both domestically, e.g., Japanese Internment, and in how the U.S. fought the war, e.g., fire-bombing Dresden, A-bombing Japan), while also perpetuating domestic white supremacy (e.g., the New Deal featured state-led housing discrimination), and, with both domestic and international effects, simultaneously we saw the budding new world-dominating U.S. MIC. It was the U.S. war mobilization, not the New Deal, that became the new heart of the U.S. economy--and until we replace that sick heart with a truly healthy one pumping the blood of the values of universal compassion and justice, we won't yet have the democracy we need.


#11

Based on Clinton's having agreed to four more debates, it appears the desperation is already settling in. A comfortable front-runner does not simply donate free face time to a meaningless challenger.


#12

Your spin started early, and it isn't effective round these parts.

Cluck.


#13

You know that vaunted Clinton caucus "app" that corporate media was gushing about yesterday. Couldn't figure out what it was really for... until a short while ago. Thom Hartmann is reporting on his show today that the app is for her precinct captains to use during the caucus to game the results. Her captain plugs in the total attendance at the caucus, the raw numbers there for each candidate, and assuming that O'Malley's campaign turnout doesn't meet the 15% support threshold, the app tells Clinton's coordinator how many of her supporters he can shift over to the O'Malley side to keep him viable in that precinct without hurting her numbers. The assumption is that if the O'Malley caucusers had to disband and go to their second choice candidate, Sanders would get more of them than Hillary. So, by keeping O'Malley viable on a precinct by precinct basis, it makes her turnout look better than it would be if they just let the event happen without interfering! I knew she'd be up to some underhanded sh*t, now I know what some of it is!


#15

How can we turn back. The planet is losing the ecosystem that sustains us. Wall Street is getting ready for another crash at taxpayers expense... thanks to Bill Clinton and his deregulation of the Wall Street Crime Syndicate. Our government, educational system, healthcare system and gun violence are serious problems that have to be dealt with now.Bernie Sanders 2016


#16

Caucuses are inherently exclusive while conventional primary voting is more inclusive.

Anybody who has a schedule conflict with their job during the 1 to 3 hour caucus time frame can not participate and the local party bosses sometimes intimidate caucus attendees who are not voting for the most corporate friendly candidate. Folks who have kids need to hire a sitter while they attend the caucus, thereby preventing the sitter from being able to caucus.


#18

I urge all readers to view the video supplied by HisStory regarding Hillary's attempts to manipulate caucus votes re martin Omalley and Sanders to benefit herself, and also the related potential for criminal manipulation of the vote count by Microsoft, a big-money supporter of the Clinton Foundation and Hillary.

The true corrupt character of Hillary Clinton is shown clearly by her smarmy, sleazy actions to manipulate the good people and vote in Iowa.


#19

Pretty much a miracle. Seems like the real message is that big bucks don't buy what they used to. The other part of the issue is that our kids are really screwed, and that involves far more of our kids than the "poor kids", which tend to be shot or sent to prison. I was at the Sander's rally in Boulder, and the Senator, addressing a crowd of mainly college kids (it was on a University of Colorado football field), and he brought up his college tuition plan, that is, every qualified kid gets into a "state university" with no tuition fee, the entire site roared. You could probably hear that noise in Wyoming. It was like GOOD NEWS. There is every reason to understand that when the polls get taken, the kids are 75% supportive. What is not mentioned, however, is that smart elected democrats will jump now on this progressive bandwagon, and if they don't then other candidates should be voted in. President Sanders needs to have a good congress. Remember, ever seat in the House is up for grabs. And if a huge new bunch of voters show up, those who are not on board will be thrown overboard, seems to me. It is time to work for coalitions, and have a system where the Green Candidates will not run for office, but will trade their voting block for a sure and certain promise of an important position in State or Federal government. Like, the person who represents the Greens might be appointed as Secretary of the Interior, etc. This brings both the votes for Sanders in, but also adds important voices to the new administration.


#20

Dare we hope?


#29

The vote about 9 months ago was Hillary 68% and Bernie about 3-5%. So, Hillary has lost at least 20% of her supporters and Bernie has gained 40%, of the total, from a combination of the undecided ( which means all of them, really ) and former Clintonistas. So, the MSM now spins this as a " must win " for Sen. Sanders, all of a sudden. ( MSNBC ) Such a deal, eh? It's really amazing that someone from Iowa just doesn't grab one of these lying ass pundits and put them into a nearby dumpster. Or back in a statistics class, at least. But, I'll say one thing on their behalf; they are bound and determined to make the Sanders campaign the loser in Iowa. Loser here, of course, means he's a " radicalcommiesocialistleftyunpatrioticdirtyhippieclosetracisttooldgrumpydivider ". Don't you dare believe your own lying eyes, America, believe us. Sen. Sanders is not winning. He's not, he's not, he's not, he's not. Why, because the 1%ers say so, that's why. Just don't do the math. Again, trust us.:wink: What a steaming pile of bullsxit this MSM media circus has become in the last 40 years. They really are worthless.


#30

"While the latest poll before the pivotal Iowa caucus on Monday shows Bernie Sanders holding a slight edge over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton, observers argue that the campaign's clear momentum and success in bringing a bold populist agenda to the mainstream already signifies a substantial 'win' for the once-longshot candidate."

With respect -- I vividly recall Eugene McCarthy's announcement, as he came out of a Senate Foreign Relations Committee meeting at which the administration had continued its refusal to provide information or engage in any meaningful exchange:

"This isn't about an educational endeavor anymore - It is about seeking the power of the Office of President of the United States."

That Office is the "win" -- the only "win". Anything else leaves the country in the hands of a man or woman interested in something other than peace and justice.


#31

Horay for your grandpa. He sounds like mine. Before WWII, the Japanese govt was split down the middle on whether to negotiate with the US or attack. Just as it appeared the anti-war faction was making headway, California passed discriminatory laws against Japanese immigration and attendence of public schools. This angered all Japanese people and gave the pro-war party the upper hand. If only...


#32

why would you say that, Sanders beats the neanderthal candidates with bigger margins than Killary


#33

Hey, this works out! I've already been boycotting these people and others like them my whole life. Well, maybe except James Taylor who I listened to until he totally sold out and started doing cute music (1971).