Imagine spending your whole career working on a question to which you don't want to know the answer. We know that greenhouse gas emissions can and do warm the planet, but we don't know one very basic thing: how hot, exactly, is it going to get? The main reason for this, of course, is that human behavior is so hard to predict. How will the people of the late twenty-first century get their energy? Will they need as much as we do, or will they have reconciled themselves to fundamentally different lives?
Very high confidence this will be low and at 6*C there is medium confidence. Our governments are stymied by the fossil fuel groups and yet "We should prepare for the worst and hope for the best."
In 2008 climatologist Stefan Rahmstorf wrote, regarding the Charney report’s original range of uncertainty; “At that time, this range was on very shaky ground. Since then, many vastly improved models have been developed by a number of climate research centers around the world. Current state-of-the-art climate models span a range of 2.6 to 4.1 °C (4.7 to 7.4 °F), most clustering around 3 °C (5.4 °F).”
The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report reverted to the earlier range of 1.5 to 4.5 °C (2.7 to 8.1 °F) (high confidence) because some estimates using industrial-age data came out low. They also stated that ECS is extremely unlikely to be less than 1 °C (1.8 °F) (high confidence), and is very unlikely to be greater than 6 °C (11 °F) (medium confidence). These values are estimated by combining the available data with expert judgement.
What a fluff piece of optimistic garbage! There are PLENTY of scientists that have always been called ‘alarmists’ or ‘extremists’ or just plain kooks by the fossil fuel political hacks that certainly have very scary thoughts on what’s here and just how bad it’s going to get. Unfortunately magazines like this won’t sell many issues if they print them.
It has gone waaaay beyond bad news. Arctic blogspot is comprised of 15 that have banded together under the name ‘Sam Carena’ but also publish separately, too. Don’t go read that site. You really do not want to know anyway, right? You want to look at your kids/g-kids and think how wonderful their lives will be…
What you can do is read some history of the Permian Extinction Event. That’ll give you a foundation on where we are taking this planet, and instead of thousands of years of belching volcanoes spewing CO2 into the sky, our species has done it in 200 years of industrialization.
How smart are we, eh?
When I was climbing full time - say contemplating crossing an avalanche slope - the only question really in my mind was:
What’s the worst case scenario ?
That is exactly how I look at the perfect storm now breaking over our heads.
Climate is just one part - possibly not even the worst part.
We do not need theoreticians plying their trade - we need decision makers with a healthy respect for the obvious power of nature.
And being visionary would be extremely helpful.
We need a JFK of The Anthropocene.
When I think of heat, then I think of evaporation----so if the whiteness of ice disappears and the Earth absorbs more heat, what happens to our water sources? How hot does it get day after day, before water, which is life, becomes less and less available? There are water sources in the deserts-----but how high would the heat get before evaporation takes over for rivers or streams? Does anyone here know?
Dunno about anyone else, but I thought this was an appalling piece of journalism! It seemed to me to be a strange combination of serious dumbing down with a measure of high-falutin’ scientific terminology to give it street cred wrapped in warm cotton wool. Not impressed…
I think this was a sensibly balanced post indicating what we know and don’t know about our atmosphere, which is highly complex with hard to measure feedback mechanisms pointing in opposite directions, and processes that in scale range from atomic level (in clouds) to thousand-miles waves in the atmosphere. I’m more certain of the politics - “global warming” is a poor choice in New England where it s usually cold (especially now for May!) and heating is expensive, and it misses the point about the threat of climate disruption/destabilization.
The bottom line: if the best “guess” for warming over a few centuries is 3 degrees centigrade, human civilization will have been totally reorganized by then out of necessity – and lots of people will have died in the unruly reorganization process.
Meanwhile, I care more about humans decimating life on earth by cutting down forests, and treating the planet like a garbage dump where biodiversity doesn’t matter. If the author wants an answer to the question of if we’re going to react to global climate chaos in time, she should look at our wanton destruction of everything remotely wild. Our greed and apathy apparently know no limits!
Our exalted high-tech multi-millionaires are pulling a scam on everyone with their self-driving Futurama world nonsense. Uber piles lies on deceits to one day own all the cars and rake it in as a monopoly Taxi operation. Bezos Futureworld is “forced bankruptcy” for too many local small businesses. Traffic will only get worse. Automobile manufacturers are in on the scam, but not off the hook for
today’s crap cars (non-EVs) and improbably stupid future cars.
Funny thing how human survival today must include cars.
Is an EV battery pack a portable power supply most households would use?
GM/Ford to cancel hybrids question? No good answers to that question.
The next Boeing breakthrough vehicle, Boeing Buses, Yeeaaaye!
Try use the term “catastrophic climate change” to infer disasters,
disastrous destruction, homeless encampments, injured survivors, starvation, disease.
My Presidential pick at this point is Ohio 6-term rep Tim Ryan.
He may remarkably understand transportation issues ahead of the pack,
most likely judging Silicon Valley self-driving car delusions as nonsense.
I’ll bet he favors plugged-in hybrid tech over big battery sport sedans and bigger battery
big rigs hogging resources as usual. Why do we believe their lies?
Arctic-news,blogspot is indeed an excellent site for climate change, especially in the Arctic, where it can been seen every day, and happens much faster than anywhere else.
The posted articles are terrifying, and provide needed background knowledge about the recent scientific warnings of environmental catastrophe.
This mealy mouthed piece did not bother to mention positive feedback loops from permafrost & methyl hydrates. All she talks about is melting ice. Then, she make no mention of consequences.