It is probably impossible to keep the level of AGW below three degrees C any longer. There are two obstacles:
"Albedo warming," which has started and is self-perpetuating even after greenhouse warming stops, is unlikely to stop before 2 degrees by itself independent of greenhojuse warzming, and is very unlikely to stop before reaching 1 degree. Albedol warming is the warming caused by darkening of the earth's or ocean's surface and consequent increase in the absorption of energy from the sun. It is occurring in the Arctic Ocean, in the Northern Hemisp;here snow belt, and on the shores of Greenland, Presently but probably not for long the reverse is happening in the Antarctic as a result of ice spreading out over the ocean surface from collap;sing glaciers. It has been measured for the Arctic Ocean alone.
The International Energy Agency predicted precisely five years ago that within five years enough future CO2 emissions would be "locked in" to production by the investments made, economically ,necessitating continued CO2 production in the course of paying back the investments. "The door will be closed forever" on reduction of emissions enough to maintain a 2-degree ceiling, said Fatih Birol, now executive director of IEA. This writer has been perpetuating the warning for five years, and 350.0rg recentlyh reaffirmed the problem with the aid of a consultant. We agree that preventing the 2-degree limit from bein exceeded reqjuires the essentially impossible - stopping new commitments to all long-term emissions.production immediately.
See "A Greeting For 2012: Looking Back At Durban And Other Progressive Failures, And "Occupying" Ourselves, www.countercurrents.org/arguimbau020112.htm, "The International Energy Agency’s "Cookbook" For Paris :A "Last Chance" That Only Continues Forty Years of Failure," December 3, 2015, http://www.countercurrents.org/arguimbau031215.htm, Global Warming Accelerates, https://consortiumnews.com/2016/05/18/global-warming-accelerates// "Two Degrees Was Too Much - Global Warming Is Out Of Control." www.countercurrents.org/arguimbau050516.htm, "The Next US President Can Save The Earth From Catastrophic Global Warming, But May Have Only 2017 To Do It," https://www.countercurrents.org/2016/09/26/the-next-us-president-can-save-the-earth-from-catastrophic-global-warming-but-may-have-only-2017-to-do-it/"
Figure a realistic minimum of 3.5 degrees from greenhouse warming and a realistic minimum of 2 degrees from albedo warming. That's 5.5 degrees total, which doesn't include the multiple degrees from inevitable methane warming. Figure 8 degrees MINIMUM if we stay on our present road. And things are getting intolerable at a tenth of that.,
But there's a simple alternative.that saves us all. Just say no to fossil fuels NOW. Remember that all this came from a failure to address P and A in I = P x A x T. Leaders who force us to focus on that and what 8 degrees means will make all the difference.
Nicholas C. Arguimbau