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Global Warming Likely to Top 3C Under Current Climate Agreements: UN


#1

Global Warming Likely to Top 3C Under Current Climate Agreements: UN

Nika Knight, staff writer

Global warming is on track to top 3° Celsius, the United Nations warned this week, because today's climate pledges are "not nearly enough" to prevent dangerous levels of warming.

"Governments are drinking in the 'last chance saloon' if the lofty goals of the Paris climate agreement are to be met."
—Asad Rehman,
Friends of the Earth International


#2

Ho hum. Not nearly as exciting as emails and pussy grabbing.

But in a short few years, there will be no one around who will even are about that, if they still bother to remember. Because we'll have something more pressing to deal with; namely the...

UTTER FUCKING CHAOS that is already pretty damn obvious. AND WILL ONLY GET MUCH MUCH MUCH WORSE, because no one-- NO ONE!!!-- has the political will to do something meaningful to stem it (let alone reverse it).

Have a nice day.


#3

If you haven't seen it yet set some time aside, not many punches pulled, lots of good science in here, as well as hard truths.


#5

Saw it. The National Geographic series "Years of Living Dangerously" is better. Doesn't seem to matter how much focus is put on this topic CO2 CH4 and FlurocloroCarbon Emissions just keep going up. India opens a new coal plant every month and then whines about how it's ok for them to do it because we waste so much energy. No care for the fact that they're shooting themselves in the face. We are so weak in this country we can't even stop the power monopolies in Nevada and Fla. from essentially banning solar energy in both States! Oh, and where is the Carbon tax ? We're going off the Climate cliff at full speed ahead. Someday , in coming decades sadly the survivors of the nightmare world we've created for them will look back at us with anger and contempt. They'll ask why? why? did we do nothing when we KNEW? The answer is easy, GREED and complacency.


#6

We don't have twenty four more years. We ran out of time years ago to avert disaster. We will hit 3C easily by mid-century. When crops begin to fail (as they already are in certain parts of the world), that's when the global panic will begin. We're in for a large overpopulation correction in the very near term. I only weep for the other earthly life we will take down with us. Rome is burning, but people choose inaction and look away. Watching "Dancing with the Stars" is far more important!


#7

Well then the game is over. If you are considering having children, you might want to rethink that plan.


#8

Solution: We need younger elected representatives whose age/life span goes beyond the horizon of these climate projections to ensure policies and regulations get enacted which knock-down the climate-heating fossil fuel status-quo. We have too many old, short-horizon people greedily self-serving at the trough of money and power

Here in the US, the perfect elected representative (dare say President) to protect the water, land, air and their inhabitants including human beings IMO is:

  • A First Nations woman between the age of 25-35.

Note: I write this as an older (and now wiser) white male who's seen the pathology of natural resource and fossil-fuel corporate capitalism from the inside.


#9

Too late for political solutions. Sorry.

The best we can hope for now are real, honest-to-God leaders (as opposed to corporate surrogates) who will help to guide us-- equitably-- through what will be some very, very trying times.


#10

I thought our oil corps were wanting this so they could go fishing for oil in the Artic. Cant remember where I read that. Thought it was here.


#11

Only because people continue to buy and burn the stuff that goes down the pipeline. Energy Transfer Partners, Trans-Canada and the like are simply responding to the popular clamor for the stuff. And the people want it to be cheap-cheap-cheap! The clamor from the left and right would be deafening if the price of gasoline went up to levels commensurate with its terrible impacts - as it is at least closer to being in Europe. So to blame Obama for the presence of an oil industry is absurd - as if Trump is not going to be orders of magnitude worse? He will make dam sure gasoline stays cheap.


#12

This is getting scary....

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records


#13

Yes, and we need leaders who bring the best earth-based ethics to bear on the problem. That's why i suggest that those leaders exist in our First Nation peoples and specifically the younger generation of women.

The solution to the problem of climate heating resides in looking at it as a system with many feedback loops, leadership being only one. Each of us contributes to the positive feedback loop through our daily discretionary consumer conveniences which, when taken in the aggregate, enable and entice the pathology of corporate growth and and hence climate heating.


#14

Pretty much everyone knows the pledges are inadequate including the countries that made the pledges. There has been talk of istrengthening the pledges at the climate meeting that will be held in 2020. But probably as important as the pledges, which may or may not be met, is doing something right now to dramatically reduce emissions. We really have run out of time to procrastinate in making much greater reductions than have been made so far. One place that I can see this urgency in government is in a few state governments. The federal level is basically hopeless as the Republicans Party for the most part continues to deny there is even a problem that humans can do anything about. And most local governments are generally caught up in local problems and find it difficult to do much about a global problem although a bright spot is the global organization of local governments called ICLEI which is making available tremendous resources to local governments that want to take action.


#15

The pipeline company is basically providing an alternative to oil trains. This oil is getting to market now and will continue to do so. The question is whether it will by train or pipeline. That is what this is about. The demand for oil is not simply a popular clamor. It is absolutely needed. Most means of transportation depend on oil. Also, oil is widely used for heating. Yes, politically the price of oil is a big deal since oil plays such a large role in the economy. We need the government to impose a price on carbon pollution. That would seem to be critical for making a quicker transition to green energy.


#16

There are many forms of transportation that do not use oil. I use one every day. Many or most Europeans and people in other parts of the world outside of the car-obsessed US get around everywhere without burning gasoline, diesel, or jet fuel. High speed trains, metros, streetcars, trolley-buses. Even when oil must be burned, much less can be burned. A ordinary diesel bus running full gets about 400 passenger-miles per gallon.

And it is simply economics 101 that comparative prices must drive the switch from oil - and alternatives only get developed when there is demand first. The only practical way to price carbon pollution is to tax the carbon content of fuel at some point between the well or mine and point-of-retail sale. This will mean higher prices. I'm a bit skeptical about Hansen's or Mann's idea of the tax being returned straight back to the end-consumer - under our current capitalist system of "manufacture of wants and needs", they will just spend it on more cars and gasoline. The carbon tax money need to be spent on development of low or no carbon public alternatives like public transit and passenger rail.

Another world is possible.


#17

Exactly. But the political will is not there to do what is needed. (Just the opposite, in fact.) And because education and the media are so tied to governmental policy, and because government is an arm of the corporations who worship the Gods of Finance and Capitalism, we are stuck smack-dap in the middle of a disasterous positive feedback loop of our own.

What to do about it? I can't see anything changing for the better unless and until capitalism ceases to be the dominant way that societies and individual humans interact with one another. Which ain't gonna happen anytime soon, short of a series of cataclysmic events which force us out of our stupor, by which time it will be much too late to save most of us. (Or a super-sensible, spiritual intervention.)

Depressing, I know. Hug someone you love. Sometimes that might be the only politive thing we can do. But we've got to start somewhere.


#19

Friends who just visited the Mediterranean said the almond and olive crops have stopped in Spain and Portugal. Trees have died; they now import almonds from California.


#20

Thank you for sharing this movie. The best one I've seen yet on climate change!


#21

Great point!

In fact if we factor in "defense" spending, the price of gasoline at the pump is roughly $9 per gallon. And then add on top of that the other detrimental impacts and we're north of that figure by quite a bit.


#22

It is probably impossible to keep the level of AGW below three degrees C any longer. There are two obstacles:

  1. "Albedo warming," which has started and is self-perpetuating even after greenhouse warming stops, is unlikely to stop before 2 degrees by itself independent of greenhojuse warzming, and is very unlikely to stop before reaching 1 degree. Albedol warming is the warming caused by darkening of the earth's or ocean's surface and consequent increase in the absorption of energy from the sun. It is occurring in the Arctic Ocean, in the Northern Hemisp;here snow belt, and on the shores of Greenland, Presently but probably not for long the reverse is happening in the Antarctic as a result of ice spreading out over the ocean surface from collap;sing glaciers. It has been measured for the Arctic Ocean alone.

  2. The International Energy Agency predicted precisely five years ago that within five years enough future CO2 emissions would be "locked in" to production by the investments made, economically ,necessitating continued CO2 production in the course of paying back the investments. "The door will be closed forever" on reduction of emissions enough to maintain a 2-degree ceiling, said Fatih Birol, now executive director of IEA. This writer has been perpetuating the warning for five years, and 350.0rg recentlyh reaffirmed the problem with the aid of a consultant. We agree that preventing the 2-degree limit from bein exceeded reqjuires the essentially impossible - stopping new commitments to all long-term emissions.production immediately.

See "A Greeting For 2012: Looking Back At Durban And Other Progressive Failures, And "Occupying" Ourselves, www.countercurrents.org/arguimbau020112.htm, "The International Energy Agency’s "Cookbook" For Paris :A "Last Chance" That Only Continues Forty Years of Failure," December 3, 2015, http://www.countercurrents.org/arguimbau031215.htm, Global Warming Accelerates, https://consortiumnews.com/2016/05/18/global-warming-accelerates// "Two Degrees Was Too Much - Global Warming Is Out Of Control." www.countercurrents.org/arguimbau050516.htm, "The Next US President Can Save The Earth From Catastrophic Global Warming, But May Have Only 2017 To Do It," https://www.countercurrents.org/2016/09/26/the-next-us-president-can-save-the-earth-from-catastrophic-global-warming-but-may-have-only-2017-to-do-it/"

Figure a realistic minimum of 3.5 degrees from greenhouse warming and a realistic minimum of 2 degrees from albedo warming. That's 5.5 degrees total, which doesn't include the multiple degrees from inevitable methane warming. Figure 8 degrees MINIMUM if we stay on our present road. And things are getting intolerable at a tenth of that.,

But there's a simple alternative.that saves us all. Just say no to fossil fuels NOW. Remember that all this came from a failure to address P and A in I = P x A x T. Leaders who force us to focus on that and what 8 degrees means will make all the difference.

Nicholas C. Arguimbau