Stalin once famously asked: “How many divisions has the pope?” You could apply the same logic to some of these Democrats, who have never done anything more than talk. “How many divisions has Linda Sarsour?”
Nights like this make me realize how utterly tired I am of morons. The morons who voted for Trump. The morons in the Democratic Party who gave us Hillary and Biden. Morons on the left who are still nostagic about Communism. Morons who are fixated on identity politics. Just wait until the Movement for a People’s Party blows it.
I have to wait? Did you watch the People’s convention? Do you think that party is going anywhere?
Biden also claimed he would win.
IT’S POLITICS, YOU MORONS. It’s how they play the game. All of them.
Every candidate claims they won until they are forced by circumstances to admit otherwise. What each of them claimed before turning in for the night is of absolutely no consequence to the actual election tally. None. They both blew hot air. So the eff what? This is America. It’s what we expect our politicians to do. Right now (10:56 PST), if things stand as they are, Trump DOES win big. Because he’s leading in all of the states not yet called. And he doesn’t even need to sweep all them. I understand you are having a hard time accepting it, but it seems like he is in a much better position than Biden is. Wouldn’t you agree?
I’m not revealing who I voted for. But I am a realist who can look past the bullshit. What is, is. We’re all better off if we stop playing pretend.
Michigan has over 70,000 spoiled ballots.
detroit (Wayne County) still cannot count.
Here we go - again.
For the opportunities our young peoples need - I do PRAY that Joe wins.
4 more of trump leaves them in rubble.
Thank you, CriticalThinker. That definitely needed to be said, needs to be repeated and needs to be amplified.
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This is turning out to be closer than folks thought. Biden has led all evening long but trump is closing the gap. It’s really disappointing to see Joe lose all the large battleground states he should have won - he could still lose this thing. It’s also disappointing to see the republicans keep the senate and mcconnel get re-elected.
Biden gave his speech early. He forgot his binder or folder on the podium and returned with his wife to pick it up. (Bad sign) Reminds me how once someone was heading towards Biden as he spoke and his wife defended him. I want a Prez who will defend himself, his wife and others.
Much later Trump gave his speech concerned that the results had stopped and the Dems would try to steal the election.
Hmmm, the Dems stole the election from Bernie. Plus they were able to get the Greens off some state ballots. Quite offensive since the Green Party is A W E S O M E. I voted Green.
Hard to say at this point. A lot of it depends on if there is something about the ballots not yet counted that is statistically very different from those that have been counted. At some point, you have to say this isn’t gong to happen (while you still count all the votes) and call the state. Of course if either candidate has to beat the other by 100+% of the ballots left in order to win, you can call the state but I think they are called way before that… Here is the basic math:
Let a state with a percentage reporting = P have Biden with B1% and Trump with T1%. Now say the remaining ballots are B2% for Biden and T2% for Trump. It’s easy to see that for Biden to win:
(* = multiplication)
P/100 * B1 + (100-P)/100 * B2 > P/100 * T1 + (100-P)/100 * T2
which simplifies to
(100-P)/100 * (B2 - T2) > P/100 * (T1 - B1)
and then to
B2 - T2 > P*(T1-B1)/(100-P)
So Biden needs a differential benefiting him that bests P/(100-P) times the differential benefiting Trump currently.
I went to two sites to get data and both have problems so I used each of them where I thought they made sense:
~https://www.270towin.com/2020-election-results-live/ is used to say which states have been called and how many EVs they have (but the percentages of Biden and Trump votes of states that are not called is completely whacked or was when I looked)
~https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president is uses for percentage reporting and how much each candidate has for the states not called (but CNN didn’t split out Maine’s 2nd district which hasn’t been called - come on man!)
As far as states called:
Biden 227, Trump 213, 98 EV up for grabs
Wow, copying from Excel seemed to work pretty well. Here’s what I have:
|# EV||State||% Reporting §||% Biden (B1)||% Trump (T1)||%B2-T2 for Biden to win|
|1||Maine, Dist. 2||?||?||?|
So looking at this, Biden is not likely to win PA (the biggest differential required) and I wouldn’t think NC or GA either. Also, AK hasn’t reported much, but that is going for Trump based on historic trends.
So I would say Trump is likely to get 213+20+15+16+3 = 267 which means he needs 1 more remaining state from above (any one since they are all worth more than 3). I don’t see Maine’s 1 EV left coming into play to break a tie. But I’ve already given Trump everything but (in order of his lead):
Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona (and Trump’s losing in the last 2)
So it appears to come down to Wisconsin. Trump does look pretty good there, so if I had to guess, I’d say Trump has got it. If so, I look forward to hearing why people like Nate Silver got it wrong this time. It would sure be nice if we could move to a national popular vote and spend any math analysis time on more useful matters.
The Democratic Party still living up to their motto, “We snatch defeat from the jaws of victory!” That damned Howie Hawkins really screwed 'em again. So, who are they running in 2024? All the old neolibs will be dead. Anyone with half a brain will be considered “unelectable”, incapable of pulling in the big money from Wall St, or painted as a Jeremy Corbyn-style anti-semite. I think they should just skip it and declare Nikki Haley president now and save us all a lot of grief. Republicans are going to run out of sponges soaking up all those liberal tears.
My two cents - which feels right now about the right price.
The result that is in is a house divided - and not just the 50/50 split between the parties, which has been a constant thruout my life.
Badly divided, and not just politically.
Divided on the most basic and critically important questions - what is true and what is not true.
Is climate change real, and who is to blame if it is ?
Is the Sixth Extinction underway - and if so - is it important, or threatening ?
As an old New Scientist article of mine says: “Unscientific America.”
Is that true, and if it is in some sense - is that even important ?
Maybe the most important question of all is whether there is a will to have a house less divided ?
I am going to get Harari’s newest book “21 Lessons for the 21st Century”, because I find his openness refreshing - and unequalled. He asks questions - of us - very democratic that mindset.
My son, who just turned 16, is up with me now. He has several websites open, and he is analyzing the results in the yet to be decided states - one by one, and so on… Cloudrunner has never done that before -
All of a sudden, just like that, he has grown up.
[ 4:00 A.M. Nov. 4 ] - Too close to say - But - It looks like Biden by 2 to 3 million ‘popular’ votes, and it looks like Trump has 79 of the 85 remaining ‘electoral’ votes, giving him 292 ‘electoral’ votes, and the win, once again. . . Almost identical to 2016. . . It looks like, at this time, that the fascist coup will be ‘allowed’ to be completed.
Useful chart of presidential elections by states won. The 1960s, 70s and 80s are very lopsided. In 84, for instance Reagan won all but two. In 1964, Republicans won six. It’s not until later that the two parties divided the country down the middle.
I Voted Green. If Trump wins, look at the Green Party Website. If Biden wins, look at the GP Website. The DNC/Perez/Biden/Clinton camp destroyed Bernie in both 2016 & 2020. This group also destroyed the GP party in both elections… If Biden loses, look at the DNC, who would prefer a Trump Victory over a Sanders Presidency… One-Party Authoritarian Rule now…
Thanks for the link.
I was ten years old when JFK won - by 120,000 popular votes out of 68.8 million votes cast, though the electoral college saw 303 JFK vs 219 Nixon.
I think what has happened is more a matter of geography - where the offshoring of industrial jobs has alienated large segments of the population for one, and for two - a growing disenchantment with the machinations of a growing empire - the assassinations’ of JFK, MLK and Bobby being the start.
The powers that be embraced laissez faire predatory market ideology with an increasing and ever far reaching passion, until finally all restraint was abandoned, and both Afghanistan and Iraq were invaded against virtually all international and even United States mores of conduct and law, or the intent of the law, which used to be justice in some sense at least. Since then, only Jim Carter advocated for the US to sign on to the International Criminal Court - to cite a meaningful example, and with the fall of the Soviet Union - these new powers in the United States, which took hold in the 1960’s, squandered every opportunity imaginable for a lasting peace.
I’m looking forward to Harari’s latest book because I can’t see what else I can do except try and understand.
As the physical world spins increasingly out of control, a process I understand much better than politics, I think we may see all nations wake up to a new smell, and it won’t be coffee.
The smell will be an ancient one - fear - Master Po’s “only darkness”.
Preparing for this new state of the planet seems the only sane thing left to do - and to pass this awareness on down to the younger generation for their appraisal.
PS: The information to pass down must include evolutionary biology, psychology and history, as per Harari and other humanists, and not just the physical sciences. I would add complexity theory to this list, come to think of it ~
And now, I am going to head out to watch the sunrise, and see the mountains light up just west of me.
Biden definitely looks like he is favored in the presidential race at this point (Arizona, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Michigan would do it). The NYT site gives good data on where the uncounted votes are located if you want to get a better handle on how achievable your last column is.
Forgetting about the Presidential race - and the fact that the Senate looks like it will have Mitch McConnell orchestrating things for another cycle - I am most bummed out about Ranked Choice Voting being so far behind in both Massachusetts and Alaska.
Do you have any feelings about the polls? It seems some of the more Republican oriented pollsters had the election right versus some of the mainstream polls.
At this point my take is that the polls did fine at measuring the “intended” vote which is what they are designed to do. (by “intended” I am including all of the provisional ballots and “signature doesn’t match” kinds of things that don’t make it into the “counted” vote - but which polls have not bearing on)
Cannot remember if you are in PA, but I’ve seen estimates that Biden can pull it out. What are your thoughts? (I’m disillusioned at the moment.)
The disappointing thing is that half the country doesn’t see things the way I would like. Bad trump things are okay with the people. We may have the 99% economically, but only 49% of the voting people,
I won’t be able to watch trump further destroy this country and it’s old values. Not 24/7 for four years. Something going to pop somewhere. Survival should be looked at by many of us that care. The poor are happy so I don’t
have to donate to anything anymore. The people don’t care about having medical coverage.