I estimate that the UI rate will be twice the gubmit’s “projection”.
Ever since Republican Ford lost the 1976 POTUS election and Democrat Carter lost the 1980 election (both of them accused of causing high inflation and high unemployment) both parties have serially understated the actual rates of inflation and unemployment.
Wow— the possible unemployed future-------- that’s a long time and a lot of unemployed.
Trump should find someone who reads and have them look up all the things that FDR came up with to employ people. Of course, that would imply we had a president who actually cared. : (
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Thanks, Now I don’t have to.
Anyone that wants info closer to reality should spend time a Shadow Stats
There is being out of a job and unable to find one, and then there is unemployment. The way those statistics are defined makes it very easy to be counted as employed (e.g., one hour of paid work of any kind during the index week) and very difficult to be counted as unemployed. It is defined very narrowly, with many people one might think would be designated as “unemployed” counted in other categories. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes SIX different measures of “under-utilization of labor resources,” with the standard definition of unemployment only the fourth widest of the six (or the third narrowest).
The 8 million out of the work force are those eligible to retire.
Unions often have 30 years service and out. They will co-operate with the company to convince
the eligible to leave the factory, steel mill, refinery.
Those already 61.5 years old and laid off for any reason. Collect 6 months of unemployment, then onto social security retirement.
In Chicago region, age 43 is your last job change. If you are 55 and your plant or office closes - you are now on your own. Start your own business, move or slide over to a very new career.
Correct, just one more way the thieves and vandals have been buggering the books since long before the Orange Menace thought about running for elective office. Similarly, I am not nearly as concerned about the chained CPI (which may or may not be a more realistic way of something so ambiguously defined as the “cost of living”) as I am with other toxic effluents from the sewer that is mainstream economics, such as their telling me that my new $20,000 Honda civic (I wish) only cost me $18,000 because it’s “better” (of greater utility, another unobservable variable) than the old one, which I can no longer buy except as a sort of “kit,” much re-assembly required.
A precise example indeed of how the gubmit has been cooking the books on the rate of inflation to keep wages land earned benefits low.
And that is the rosiest picture I’ve yet seen (other than the voices that come from Trump’s head). I’ve heard figures 50-100% higher.
By Trump saying that the economy & employment will improve next quarter, he’s raising expectations that he probably can’t fill, which isn’t a very smart thing to do just ahead of an election. He might just change his predictions to something like 40 or 50% unemployment so he can say that if it hits “only” 30%, it’s all because of the “tremendous” job he’s doing.
I don’t know why you would be instantly sold on some guy’s apparently weird methodological quirks. Who the hell is “Shadowstats” anyhow – does anyone care? There are answers to such questions, for those who like to distinguish which corner of the concept cafeteria this pile of god-knows-what came from.
A number of economists and finance experts have claimed that the Shadowstats CPI is conceptually wrong and that their usage leads to easily disproven and absurd conclusions.
with numerous citations listed, at:
Speaking of skeptical, aren’t you the one who picked out our buddy @Callmeskeptical as the oxymoronic “military intelligence” disinformation agent known (even respected, by fans of fakery) as Mike “Dickhead” Adams? What’s going on here?
Now I have to research the ‘debunkers’ and decide if they are Legit or not.
Meanwhile rent strikes are being organized:
With Millions Unable to Pay for Housing Next Month, Organizers Plan the Largest Rent Strike in Nearly a Century