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'Historic, Catastrophic' Category 5 Hurricane Dorian Hits Bahamas, Still Threatens Southeast US Coast

Originally published at http://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/09/01/historic-catastrophic-category-5-hurricane-dorian-hits-bahamas-still-threatens

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Taking a direct hit from a Dorian as it slows down from 8 to 4 mph, Great Abaco is taking a pounding this moment the likes of which we may never have seen: 12 to 15 hours of continuous 185 mph winds, 220 mph gusts, with a break only as the eye passes over. Won’t be much left of that island, I fear.

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Back in 1935, we didn’t have all the seacoast development we have now. With every square inch of eastern Florida covered in some kind of human construction, it will all be destroyed. Ecosystems like the Everglades and the other great swamps of the southeast are meant to alleviate the greatest damage by providing a means to absorb the storm surges and rainfall as well as windbreaks. Now…if I lived in that area, I would have hit the road a few days ago, going inland as far north and west as possible. The people who are remaining…write out your wills and tattoo your ID’s on your body. And the multi-billionaires in Palm Beach and Miami Beach…your highrises will sink because there’s no bedrock to anchor a large building, just porous limestone karst. I’ll be sure to send you thoughts and prayers and some paper towels…

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Maybe Trump will send FEMA money to the Bahamas. After all, it is a popular vacation spot for a lot of wealthy white people.

But maybe he’s already used all the FEMA money building and staffing his concentration camps.

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How terrible, to remember the paper towels! The models are so wobbly anymore who can say? But it looks like Mar A Lago will be going underwater for awhile with new-moon proximate king tides under the Dorian storm-surge.

Hurricanes don’t usually spring up in the middle of the ocean and amble around at 4 mph (along with 911 mb in the middle – a scary number for those familiar with millibars). Dorian is a very strange one. It could miss the mainland entirely, take its time strolling NW near the coast, and inundate damn near the whole SE coast. If I had this God to pray to, this is around when I’d be yanking their chain, asking for mercy. Certainly the people of USAmerica’s SE coast are in my thoughts. Take care, friends.

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the videos are heartbreaking. people begging for their lives since there’s not many places away from the water there.

body count’s going to be horrible.

it’s the new world. one big fat horror show.

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Boy, these meteorologists are all counting on Dorian taking a 90 degree right turn in the next day or so.

Millions in southern Florida are being given a false sense of security because of these predictions.

Bless them all if Dorian decides to keep tracking west.

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What are we going to do? USAmerica has been painstakingly cultivated as a spectator culture. We watch.

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The weather channel on cable TV Reports that the predicted path error is 70 miles, based on history.
The european model they are utilizing has been quoted often in Chicago local weather with plenty of error. Once, they compared six different computer weather models and euro was not the most accurate here.

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I wonder if the climate crisis nature of these storms is making computer models moot, that they no longer apply because today’s storms can no longer follow the same criteria.

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I hope people aren’t blaming the meteorological analysts behind these models. They’re doing the best they can. Meteorology isn’t even all that old a science, if you mean the satellite era. And now the Earth under the satellites isn’t what it used to be. It’s like learning to ride a horse which is turning into a zebra.

From a very nice book called The Weather Machine by Andrew Blum, I’m getting a new appreciation of meteorology – including how difficult and tenuous it is. Scientific pioneer Harry Wexler put it tersely:

There are many things that meteorologists do not know about the atmosphere, but one thing they are sure of is this – that the atmosphere is indivisible.

By “indivisible” Wexler means you can’t yank Dorian out of context and isolate it on the examination table, you have to figure out the whole hemisphere, believe it or don’t – and that’s a very difficult problem. The Climate Catastrophe introduces destabilization of regular ways. Jeff Masters, who really is a master, describes the challenge:

Predicting the location of Dorian’s northward turn is an excruciatingly difficult forecast challenge, since a few miles can make a vast difference in impacts, and since Dorian remains two days away from its closest approach to Florida.

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weather channel PhD says they are using past five years, and euro soft ware program.
I will try and repeat a message here that I left on another subject::
Illinois gaining a $500 million dollar super duper computer for weather.
We have over 44 years of USA satellite weather records to feed in from world wide.
Perhaps passenger planes can have instrumentation that analyzes air quality for CO2, CO, methane, etc. and use this for mapping global warming also.

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Further: at 7pm eastern time zone
weather channel says 4 days forecast predicting centerline of a huricane is 170 miles error !!

Go Here…click on Earth and set the parameters any way you want…

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“All Common Dreamers, Let’s All Send Good Karma To Hurricane Dorian, To Poop Out Now!”

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Nullschool (unaffiliated with Aleph) is stunningly gorgeous. And ominous, today.

I like this simple animation, some meteorological analysts working out our hemisphere. This is the University of Washington Jet Stream hind/forecast animation. The Jet Stream didn’t used to look quite this wicked, whipping all around like a serpent.

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i’m a chronic pain patient that lost his medications to the “opiate hysteria”. I’m basically a dead man typing. I’m out of this fight. And pretty much every other one, too, now…:slight_smile:

people will figure out they need to revolt or they will die. Their choice. If you leave any wound to fester long enough, you wind up having no choice but to take off the limb.

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And maybe participate?

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Or sing:

(Not making light of the situation but knowing your penchant for musical insersions.)

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In a sane and humane world, emergency personnel and supplies would have been flown in to all the islands in its path days before this hurricane hit.

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