Well, Lamonte, I’ll start with your numbers. 20-30 million cases of the coronavirus and a 2% death rate would equal 500,000 American deaths in a year. That’s still not good.
You have made two assumptions in your post: first, that China has a so-so healthcare system, and by implication, second, that the USA has a superb healthcare system by comparison.
I’m going to do a Bernie Sanders here and look rather dispassionately at the Chinese healthcare system. They may not do many heart transplants. Worse, their autocratic leadership was a major cause of the coronavirus spreading all over China, first through enforced secrecy, second through an imposed lockdown with lots of holes that in practice encouraged carriers to evacuate Wuhan by the millions.
On the other hand, China delivers a basic level of medical care to all of its citizens. Nobody dies while sleeping under a bridge. If anyone is sick, they live or die in a hospital bed. So, the coronavirus might possibly have a slightly higher death rate in another country.
The U.S. health care system covers all sorts of operations if you have good insurance, but a high percentage of people won’t afford to take a fever to the emergency room. Many people are still on the Republican Don’t Get Sick plan. Many seniors don’t want to have to pay their $135 Medicare Plan B deductible for any particular year. Millions of people want to stay under the radar. So let’s say it, we’re going to see a bunch of dead people in the U.S. I don’t see an argument that China’s 2% death rate is going to higher than the death rate in the U.S.
I throw out the 1,000,000 American dead as an order of magnitude estimate. If I’m off by a factor of 2 in either direction, it’s still a rough ballpark guess.