I want to (finally) respond to your comment real quick on the numbers in the Pollin report and why even the bill's author--again, the chair of Appropriations--didn't adopt them in the committee analysis. I'm going to focus on one huge element, transition costs. As noted on page 5 of the report, its authors didn't model or attempt to deal with financing the transition costs to single payer. It was a major placeholder in the Senate bill and the reason is simple: it's a legitimately challenging issue to work through.
There are a ton of uncertainties. As the committee analysis itself notes, nobody knows what will happen with insurers, what incentives they'll need, to retain coverage under a bill that essentially outlaws them. We can speculate they should continue offering policies for a set number of years, but what happens if they stop investing in administrative staff after the bill is passed or pull out of markets altogether, deeming it not worth the investment? Kaiser alone employs 100,000 people in Northern California, a huge chunk in the Sacramento region. You are looking at potential disaster one way or another if that happens. Are the provider networks going to crumble? Are doctors now forced to open separate practices and how long will that take? What happens to patients? What happens to thousands of gainfully employed, middle class employees? California would likely be on the hook to incentivize insurers to keep things operating for those presently receiving coverage and it likely isn't going to be cheap. Nobody in the healthcare reform world seriously doubts this.
The Pollin report is nice, but it essentially imagines a system absent a lot of issues that are pertinent to SB 562, by its author's own acknowledgment. Just the fact it assumes California would receive waivers from the Feds is a problem in itself. Tom Price is not a fan of single payer, a huge opponent in fact. The likelihood of him going through the waiver process when he's hard at work trying to gut Medicaid is the same as the one where you purchase an invisible pony from me, zero. And, absent the waivers, the whole enterprise is dead. That's why the bill, even if passed, wouldn't go into effect until California's Secretary of Health and Human Services obtained the waivers and other financing necessary for the Healthy California Trust Fund (100670(a)).