Today and the next several days I am beginning my calling, emailing and mail campaign to my Mayor, state legislators, governor, congressional representatives, congressional committee chairs, CDC, HHS, FDA, VA, SCOTUS, DoD Joint Chiefs of Staff, AMA, ABA and others. I fear for my health, my life, and my ability to exercise my right to vote without risking my life. Either through malice aforethought or criminal negligence this administration has demonstrated it is a clear and present danger to every citizen of this nation and, by extension, the world. We all need to weigh in either through action or at least raising our collective voices to stop this runaway cabal. It’s a first step. I’m mindful more will probably required.
From Trump’s point of view, what we have not a health crisis, it is a PR crisis. Further testing will confirm there are even more confirmed cases and those numbers already seem too high. It is little wonder he wants to put a halt to testing.
Just a little hitch in his regular way of lying. But it’s still a lie.
I’ll drop a final number on you.
Several states are already experiencing negative growth in new cases per day, as of five days ago. Most of the country is moving in this direction.
The big New York area hotspot has lost its exponential growth. Either tomorrow or two days from now, I expect both New York State and New Jersey 10 day data to turn the corner, where daily confirmed cases start going down each day. This means that new confirmed cases actually peaked maybe three days ago.
I just took a peek at the latest Louisiana numbers. They’re more or less peaking two days after New York/New Jersey. The larger District of Columbia and Pennsylvania area is the lone remaining major growth area in the country, and they don’t count for a huge percentage of current cases.
The percentage of Institutional new infections is rising, but prisoners and nursing home cases generally don’t get out and become superspreaders. State departments of health are going to track and sit on the vulnerable guards and nursing home workers. Without much remaining anonymous community transmission, I expect total confirmed cases to decline fairly quickly in the next two weeks. Given this recipe, confirmed cases could come to a near-stop at about 500,000 confirmed cases, with occasional small flare-ups.
Next I have to guess a ratio between confirmed cases and fatalities in the U.S. In New York State I see 160,000 confirmed cases and 7,000 fatalities. The deaths come with perhaps a 2 week delay, so I’ll take a shot at 14,000 fatalities if the new cases suddenly ended right now. Applying this ratio, I get roughly 45,000 U.S. fatalities at the end of the pandemic. I could easily be wrong by 10,000 fatalities, maybe 20,000 on the far outside. Even the new low of 60,000 sounds just a bit high to me.
Atomic scientists have had experience with exponentially growing nuclear reactions. If the chunks of uranium stay far enough apart, everything is hunky-dory. If they get a little too close you have trouble. So, once the coronavirus pandemic has been exponentially reduced to rather low levels in perhaps 8 weeks, certain parts of our national emergency will be lifted, but not quite enough so that covid-19’s exponential reaction can take off again.
Trump seems to have a bottomless pit of bad ideas…
The motivation for this decision should be obvious. If you test, you will find infected people. If you find infected people, it will appear that the disease is spreading which will mean that drumpf will look even more like a failure and a loser than he already does. Therefore if you don’t test, you can’t say that the disease is spreading so drumpf will be able to claim that he won.
Voila! Success! Now go ahead and die.
Republican health care: Don’t get sick, but if you do, die quickly.
One thing about the Washington model is that if a model changes drastically when a bit of data is changed, then it has no predictive power. We need to look at another model with better, more stable outcomes.
I was going to say that. It really is that simple.
And without testing, they can make up any numbers they want. Stop the testing and they stop the count. However many people have tested positive as of Friday is how many people they will ever have to acknowledge had the disease.
Here’s the irony of this: the US has no reliable tests for this. NONE.So what’s the point of “fake” testing? Exactly. Several countries offered their reliable testing kits and DT refused them stating the US can do it alone and better. That just didn’t work out so well. Giving the finger to others often has that result of being just a bit too smart of your own good. Go to church–God will protest and save you is his BS since the economy is tanking and more deaths are fine as long as the economy is thriving. The Centrist Conservative Dems don’t give a fu** about AOC or her followers, or her supporters and followers, or us regular notsowealthy working stiffs, and the RP doesn’t give a rats ass about anyone but themselves,.and those wealthy elite backers who have them on short leashes. DT has been ranting for days about how great he is while ripping everyone he takes a dislike to and the RP is silent. Go to work, go shopping, eat out–pass it on (the infection), we’ll all be better for it! He’s their guy.
You compulsively leap to optimistic conclusions. I grew up marinated in the awfully injurious optimistic delusions of Christian Science. This shit never works, Paul. Cheer yourself up, if you like. By the 15th you’ll surely be proven wrong again, if you hold with UWash’s false prophecies.
Excellent point: Model stability is a pre-requirement of predictive integrity. (The UWash folderol is interesting to me because they say it moves the markets.)
I’m only making fun of myself when I call what I do a “model” – all I’m doing is picking a couple of days (preferably typical days, if that’s discernible), to factor the rate of daily growth (in whatever metric: fatalities in this case). Sorry if the following is deadly dull (elementary stuff, frankly), I have been asked to explain how this works. Maybe it’s late enough in this thread folks won’t mind if I do.
USA COVID-19 reported deaths (April 9) 16,545 / (March 31) 3,580 = 4.6215.
Raise this to the power of 1/9 to get the daily increase from a span of 9 days: 1.1854.
And that’s about it, they sheepishly confessed. You can trace the daily factor through the days in-between March 31 and April 9 to watch the curve approximate actual daily readings. You can rearcast backwards into March to see how closely it hangs on going backwards. And you can multiply 16,545 by the daily factor, see if we get to 19,612 today. [Caveat: I just recalculated these numbers as I wrote, without double-checking. I have been known to royally screw up even butt-simple math.]
The point behind this, for anyone who’s persisted through it this far, is that the simple exponential trend, easily demonstrable and measurable, is thought of as a background force of inertia – momentum’s pull – regarding physical trends. Absent information sufficient to understand contrary forces, often the most reliable forecast is the assumption that the trend you see will continue.
yup, she has disappointed. not like the 60’s and i should know. just seems no one wants to fight anymore.
You’re kind of right. I’m probably the most optimistic realist in the world concerning the climate catastrophe. I accept a nonzero possibility that the world’s population will collapse.
Yes, the District’s mayor, Muriel Bowser, was slow to order shelter-in-place for the District.
“Completely irresponsible” is all she had to say? Do these Representatives and Senators ever get fired up about anything other than spewing empty mealy-mouthed rhetoric as if trying their best not to offend the international bully White House resident? Doesn’t seem like it. The same goes for the DC Press Corp who seem to love being abused by him. If they had any self-respect, they’d get up and walk out on him and never go back. Who cares to hear what he says when all he does is lie and talk about his “hunches.” Why do nearly all of these people at all levels of government seem terrified of this juvenile bully in an overweight adult body? Because he’s the Mob Boss? They know they have their salaries with complete health coverage regardless.
Where is the DNC? pelosi? shumer? ? ?
Why are the freshmen exposing corruption while the senior management is walking around blind in Washington…