“The call to get off fossil fuel by the 2030s is hard but technically achievable”
What scientifically credible published report proves that the GND is technically achieveable?
There is already published feasibility analysis for 100% renewable by 2050 that suggests it would take installation rates that are uprecedented in human history. Not over the last 30 years or the last 50 years or since WW2 or since the industrial revolution- HUMAN HISTORY!
From Loftus et al. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wcc.324
“Apart from Jacobson & Delucchi, WWF, and Worldwatch, the projected average rate of solar capacity additions range from 50 to 150 GW/year in the next decade and beyond (a normalized rate of 0.7–2 GW/year/$T of GDP). This rate is as much as five times the historical high of roughly 31 GW in 2012. However, both Jacobson & Delucchi and Worldwatch call for building an average of more than 700 GW/year of solar—reaching a total installed capacity of 30,000 GW in 2050 and 18,000 GW in 2030 respectively. WWF envisions over 300 GW/year after 2030 as capacity grows to more than 8000 GW in 2050. These three scenarios call for sustained normalized solar deployment in the range of 3–8 GW/year/$T of GDP. As with the wind addition rates envisioned by these studies, this solar capacity addition rate would be higher than has been demonstrated for any single technology in global history, and on a sustained basis, would be more rapid than total global power generation capacity additions.”
“Most studies assume annual deployments of wind turbines in the range 50–100 or 0.5–1 GW/year/$T of GDP. While these rates are roughly double the rate of wind capacity additions from 2010 to 2012, they compare favorably to normalized rates of capacity addition for several other technologies (i.e., coal, gas, nuclear, or hydro). Jacobson & Delucchi envision approximately 500 GW/year to yield 19,000 GW in 2050. WWF assumes 200–500 GW/year to attain 7200 GW in 2030. Worldwatch projects more than 200 GW/year to yield 4800 GW in 2030. These three scenarios call for global wind deployment in the range 2–6 GW/year/$T of GDP, every year for the next 35 years. Those rates are roughly 33–300% faster than has been demonstrated historically for any single technology”
“sustaining global energy intensity improvements for decades at a rate twice as fast as the most rapid energy intensity improvement experienced in any single year in recent history and roughly 3.5 times faster than the average global rate sustained from 1970 to 2011”
“Wave and tidal generators are not currently commercially viable and the installed base is essentially zero. Despite this, Jacobson & Delucchi’s scenario assumes we can build 1000 GW of installed capacity by 2050, Worldwatch calls for roughly 300 GW by 2030, and Greenpeace/EREC envisions 200 GW by 2050."
“Geothermal’s 2012 contribution to global capacity stood at approximately 11 GW with additions over the last 20 years less than 0.01 GW/year/$T of GDP. Jacobson & Delucchi, Worldwatch, and WWF project much larger increases in installed capacity: approximately 500 GW in 2050, 1000 GW in 2030, and 3000 GW in 2050, respectively, or 0.2–1.0 GW/year/$T of GDP. As another point of comparison, an MIT Energy Initiative study estimated that an aggressive development plan making use of enhanced geothermal techniques not yet demonstrated at commercial scale could potentially yield a cumulative installed capacity in the United States of 100 GW by 2050.46 Worldwatch calls for adding this much geothermal capacity worldwide every 2 years between now and 2030“.
“normalized capacity additions of the remaining eligible low‐carbon energy technologies of 5–23 GW/year/$T of GDP (Figure 6). In contrast, normalized global generation capacity of all types grew by just 1.5–3 GW/year/$T of GDP from 1965 to 2010.”
The GND provides zero scientific data and analysis with its proposal, yet proclaims it can achieve 100% renewable energy by 2030, which is 20 years faster than the WWF, WorldWatch, and WWS Jacobson & Delucchi Studies. Additionally the GND includes aspects of development not found in extremely ambitious 100% renewable studies such as:
- full scale electrical grid alterations
- state-of-the-art residential and industrial modifications
- Decarbonization of Agriculture
- Decarbonization of Manufacturing
- Decarbonization of Industrial Sectors
Where is the explanation of how this will be accomplished? Where is the explanation of what exactly is going to be accomplished? Where is the data and evidence that this is possible in 10 years?
Please provide any scientific documentation and analysis that the GND is in any way feasible?