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Scientists Warn of 10C Warming as We “Dial up Earth’s Thermostat”


Scientists Warn of 10C Warming as We “Dial up Earth’s Thermostat”

Andy Rowell

Nearly every week a new record is being broken on climate.


I think it is time to stop describing climate changes that will happen in a 100 to 200 years and focus instead on what may be expected to occur in the next ten to twenty years. Ordinary people are suffering an excess of statistics that jump across the decades and centuries and it all gets hard to remember. Say a 100 years and instantly listeners tune out. It is a non real imaginary period of time for them but say twenty years and they all perk up and try to listen intently. Twenty years is real for people. Things will get pretty bad and maybe science can't predict exactly what will happen but then no one can yet predict the weather with 100% accuracy either. Climate change is like looking out the window at a cloudy day and saying looks like it might rain. No one expects absolute accuracy just a reasonably accurate estimate.

If it can get this hot now and looking at the trend in rising global temperatures one can safely estimate a fair apparoximation of what to expect if those trends continue. That is what people need to be educated about. They need to learn what they can expect in their lives because climate change has accelerated that much and there is a very likely chance that it will noticeably worsen in ten to twenty years. Worsen in a way that people can see for themselves. It isn't about what will happen in a century anymore if you want to change what really will happen by then. It is about how people can see it happening right now and how it changes year after year and that will make them change things so that a century from now it won't be catastrophe.

How hot do you think it will be in Northern India in ten years or twenty? Could it reach higher temps for months at a time in summer? How many people die from the heat each year is also a statistic people are not used to thinking about but should talk about because it is concrete and right now.

How hot will it get ten years from now? People need to be convinced that they will be able to see that it will be getting hotter. The old ambiguity is gone. Pinpoint accuracy may not be possible but a fair estimate is. Once people can say that there is no doubt then they will be more willing to act.