This would appear to be one truly lucrative example of the value of data. Lists of AOI (Army of Idiots) members that could be derived from followers of Alex Jones and knockoffs thereof would be very useful to populate local demonstrations. Fly in a couple of leadership types to keep the messaging on point and you have a cost-effective national campaign. Astroturf that appears organic.
The “so called conservatives”, so called due to the only thing they MIGHT conserve is their hold on power. And to think, these same types were on the verge of insanity about the old communist party, which actually looks pretty good compared to these fascist “americans”!
Nazi brown shirts, tea party, COVID deniers…all faux grass roots conspiracies.
I DO support reopening churches post haste !
It only takes about ten days for the results of demonstrations and “loosening” to show up in the counts of new cases. For those interested in monitoring our haphazard experimental findings, I don’t know of a better quick assessment than Covidly’s new-cases charts (this one for Texas, which is setting new daily records, along with Wisconsin):
There aren’t any statistically significant gaps in Texas’s steady worsening, aside from a slight dip around April 26. You can hardly speak of “resurgence” with a trend like this. The surge which started in mid March just keeps surging.
From eye-balling state new-cases charts, it looks to me like the steepest surges today are happening in the following states: Texas, Wisconsin, Virginia, North Dakota, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Carolina, Illinois, and Arizona. The country as a whole has shown a plateau in new-cases for weeks, as NY & New Jersey pass their outbreak peaks. Scattered surges now build up to lift USA’s new-cases out of that plateau to new heights, shortly.
Here is how to distinguish right-wing, ruling class-sponsored astroturf “movements” for lifting the covid19 lockdown from authentic, science-based people’s movements for lifting the covid19 lockdown:
Ruling class, right-wing astroturf “movements” promote an indiscriminate, non-scientific lifting of the lockdown, whereas authentic people’s movements promote the use of covid19 antibody testing as a scientific basis to identify individuals who can safely be released from lockdown.
An indiscriminate, non-scientific lifting of the lockdown will result in more covid19 infections, and will ultimately result in prolonging the crisis and strengthening ruling class justifications for prolonging lockdown. These, indeed, are the goals of the right-wing, fake “grass roots” push to end the lockdown: 1) to intensify the crisis, to infect and kill more people, and 2) to thereby give the ruling class (and the governments it controls) strong reasons to prolong the lockdown.
Prolonging the lockdown will enable the ruling class and the governments it controls (including especially, of course, the US government) to continue its intensive, crisis-disguised smash and grab spree against the people. Prolonging the crisis will enable the ruling class to execute the final dispossession of the people, the end-game of monopoly capital. It will enable the ruling class to finish off the last few remnants of democratic institutions in the US and put the final nails in the coffin of US culture.
Make no mistake: rumpdump is fully on the side of the ruling class. He is their tool. While he postures in front of the cameras and pretends to support an end to covid19 lockdowns, he and his ruling class buddies are laughing all the way to the bank, drooling over all the wealth they are transferring from public hands to private hands under the cover of the covid19 crisis.
A free, democratic society uses science to formulate public policy – science conducted in pursuit of the greatest good for the greatest number for the longest time. Authentic, science-based, worker-driven (majority-driven) campaigns to lift the covid19 lockdown call for antibody testing of the entire world’s human population (excepting uncontacted tribes in the Amazon and Africa, of course). Universal antibody testing offers a scientific basis – the only basis worthy of a free society – for guiding governments’ responses to the covid19 crisis.
Antibody testing will eventually serve three purposes: 1) Antibody tests can be used to identify individuals permitted to be assigned to perform essential services. This should begin immediately, even if antibody testing is not yet fully reliable. Allowing only persons with antibodies in their bloodstreams to work in public spaces and perform essential services is certainly preferable to allowing persons without antibodies to perform these services. 2) As antibody testing becomes more reliable, it should also be used to identify non-essential workers permitted to be released from quarantine. 3) As antibody testing becomes more reliable, it should be used to identify those who do not have antibodies in their bloodstreams. Governments can reasonably insist, on science-based grounds, that persons without covid19 antibodies should remain in lockdown until the crisis is over.
Governments have two essential duties: to keep their citizens safe and to protect their citizens’ civil liberties. Science-based responses to pandemics are needed for governments to balance their two essential duties. Civil libertarians from both the left and the right should be calling for government investment in covid19 antibody testing, and an eventual easing of the lockdown for those with covid19 antibodies.
There are now 13 sailors of the Teddy Roosevelt who were:
- infected, many with symptoms
- quarantined and officially recovered: consecutive negative tests, 48 hours apart
- put back to work on the strenuously sanitized warship
- infected again, almost immediately
I really don’t think that the moron in the picture holding the sign “be like Sweden” really, really wants to be like Sweden. That is how fucked-up and downright stupid these camo costume clowns are.
Ok, fine. Your empirical data do not controvert my normative claims, however. Your empirical data only indicate that implementation of the covid19 public policy response I have proposed is not yet practicable.
You didn’t specify whether those sailors were given blood tests designed to detect antibodies or nasal mucous tests designed only to detect the virus. Please address this question.
I have proposed normative guidelines for governments to follow. Covid19 testing is not yet sophisticated enough to implement those guidelines. I have never suggested that it is. But the empirical insufficiency of current testing is no reason to reject those guidelines. At this preliminary stage, the guidelines call for increased government investment in covid19 research, including research into antibody testing. A normative thesis – a thesis about what governments should be doing in response to the covid19 crisis – cannot be rebutted merely by pointing to the immature, inadequate state of empirical research.
This is my thesis, in a nutshell: Governments should be pursuing a massive, Marshall-style plan to discover and deploy a reliable test for covid19 immunity/non-immunity and covid19 contagiousness/ non-contagiousness. Do you disagree? If so, why?
Please contemplate the following questions: 1) If/when covid19 testing becomes a 75% reliable indicator of immunity/non-immunity, and contagion risk/non-risk, will you support lifting quarantines for individuals shown by testing to be probably immune and non-contagious? 2) If/when covid19 testing becomes an 85% reliable indicator of immunity/non-immunity, and contagion risk/non-risk, will you support lifting quarantines for individuals shown by testing to be probably immune and non-contagious? 3) If/when covid19 testing becomes a 90% reliable indicator of immunity/non-immunity, and contagion risk/non-risk, will you support lifting quarantines for individuals shown by testing to be probably immune and non-contagious? 4) If/when covid19 testing becomes a 95% reliable indicator of immunity/non-immunity, and contagion risk/non-risk, will you support lifting quarantines for individuals shown by testing to be probably immune and non-contagious? 5) If/when covid19 testing becomes a 98% reliable indicator of immunity/non-immunity, and contagion risk/non-risk, will you support lifting quarantines for individuals shown by testing to be probably immune and non-contagious?
There seems to be a lot of “faith” in the concept of anti-body enabled immunity because it holds true for some viruses. But there are viruses for which anti-bodies:
Never provide immunity because the virus mutates constantly (HIV)
Provide limited immunity in the form of lesser transmission and milder symptoms (other corona viruses)
Provide temporary immunity and then none after a week or so (norovirus)
So what holds true for SARS-CoV-2 is anyone’s guess – the research will tell, and the same goes for faith in developing a vaccine.
That said, these rightwing groups are correct: initially reported “mortality” rates (3.4%) were exaggerated, at least for countries capable of treating lots of sick elderly people and those with underlying conditions. Because of solid treatment and tireless healthcare providers, the mortality rate has been held in check – still higher than an average influenza, but let’s say manageable. Of course, here in the US, many died because they had no insurance and didn’t/wouldn’t seek life-saving treatment, not to mention the many slowdowns cause by the Trump team. In countries with undeveloped healthcare systems, in refugee camps, the deaths are going to start piling up.
And that’s where these rightwing groups are full of shit. Clearly, the “morbidity” rate for Covid19 is much higher than for the average influenza. So much higher that the healthcare system would be overrun and unable to save lives at the current rate that “shelter-in-place” guidelines and public cooperation have made possible. Here in MI, only social distancing stood between lives saved and an overwhelmed healthcare system.
For example, the very large healthcare system my wife works at had, at the height of our state’s outbreak, close to 900 people in isolation for Covid19 treatment. Many hundreds died there, but thousands recovered there. A few healthcare providers died there. There are still over 300 in isolation even now.
I would say to these rightwing groups, as I’ve said to rightwing “friends,” without shelter-in-place measures, the figure for deaths in the US – and I cite an almost laughably conservative figure given the above – would be triple what they are now, with hospitals at overflow and deaths mounting faster. That would cripple the economy, just like the stay-at-home measures have. In other words, pick your economic poison. Sweden chose a middle ground – but in actuality, they social distanced pretty well and still fared worse than the rest of Scandinavia.
Of course, I rooted for the virus, but it won’t make a dent in the world’s population growth. Statisticians assert that it would take 50,000,000 deaths above the current average rate to start doing that. That’s not gonna happen.
that’s an Oxymoron
CNP’s founders include multiple members of the conspiracist John Birch Society and Paul Weyrich, co-founder of the Heritage Foundation and ALEC.
If it’s FAKE, ignore the precautions start having Trump and other Fascist Rallies -Now!
Put your Lives where your big mouths are - out front
It’s like Whack-a-Mole…all these love children bred from The Old Dominion of Virginia planter Elite and the neolib economists from the University of Chicago. They all have one common trait-only a few humans deserve to live in freedom while the rest are simply parasites whose sole purpose is to be takers. Anyone who has to work for a living, working up a sweat, getting dirty…well, they can be thrown a bone or two but not a living wage. Or unions. Or good education for their children. Or health care. Or…
Class war at its worst. And way too many of us don’t see through the hatred buried underneath all the words.
Your Covidly charts don’t show trendlines, only number of cases, active cases, recoveries, deaths.
The trendline is what matters, otherwise every line goes up except active cases, which is the only number that CAN go down on those charts. Compare the Covidly charts to the 7-day moving average trendline on this NYTimes page:
Not only that but they move upward in 1000% intervals on that chart. Statistically misleading.
The charts shared are of new cases. You can ask the software to draw an averaged trend-line for you, or you can eyeball it – indicating clear, continuous surges in new cases for the states listed. You’re terminally, intentionally, incurably confused by perfectly clear statistics.
When the trend in new-cases keeps going up, to functioning minds this can only indicate a continuing surge. You keep making yourself ridiculous with increasingly absurd attempts to correct the facts.
The CNP Board of Directors & Donor List: Uncle & Auntie Whitey, Sr. The Uncle & Auntie Whitey, Sr. Foundation The Uncle & Auntie Whitey, Sr. Memorial Trust The Uncle & Auntie Whitey, Jr. Inheritance Fund, The Uncle & Auntie Whitey, Jr. Memorial Trust…The Uncle & Auntie …
Nope, I can’t see a pattern here, can you? ALEC, no way. The Heritage Foundation ( what’s in a name ) why, that’s impossible. Freedom Works, The Family Research Council…now you’re walkin’ on the fightin’ side of me, bro. The Eagle Forum…why, I’ll shot that fuxkin’ pink hat right off your empty fuxkin’ head… The Usual White Suspects hiding in waiting, ready to create a deadly health crisis…er, ready to take advantage of a deadly health crisis…er, er, ready to bring more freedom and rights to the masses; through death, plague and right wing fascism…er, er…libertarian principles…er, the love of self, of family, of country and real male penises…er, er… the manly god of manly men. Like J. Edgar Hoover, Roy Cohn, Lindsey Gra…er, er… Log Cabin Republicans…" Power to the People! "
End of Story!
Except as the chart I linked to clearly shows, the trend in new cases nationally is down. B
And I suppose this headline from yesterday is incurably confused about statistics, as is the Ivy League epidemiologist it quotes:
“We’re seeing a decline; undoubtedly, that is something good to see,” Jeffrey Shaman, an epidemiologist at Columbia University, said. “But what we are also seeing is a lot of places right on the edge of controlling the disease.”
Your right about that. That is how they did it in the good old days before the deluge.
Johns Hopkins has the most interesting new-cases trend-lines (though I wish there were more), for international comparisons all on the same page:
Their chart for USA clearly shows a rough statistical plateau of new cases in USA (subtract out NY & New Jersey’s peaks, what you’ve got left is a steady rise for the country as a whole). Right next to it on the page is a strikingly similar near-plateau for UK, which also follows catastrophic public health policies. Possibly UK could keep the curve down, but to my reading of the state trends comprising the whole-country trend, USA is destined for a more definite new-cases resurge, and soon.
Germany or Italy provide examples of countries which show some promise of controlling their outbreaks. That’s the best a curve can do, apparently: broadening out into a long tail. Canada, at the bottom of the page, looks too similar to UK, rather than Germany – they’ve got a big problem on their southern border to contend with.
Iran’s situation (its chart just to the left of Canada’s) is most fascinating for probing the bug’s behavior. Their outbreak looked to be gliding down into that long tail, when something happened in mid-May to reverse their progress, and now Iran suffers a strong resurgence for some reason. I doubt the weather in Iran is getting any cooler this time of year.
All these trends and charts can lose track of the lives involved, perhaps. 6% of USA COVID-19 cases have died, at this writing. Rural USAmerica seems to think this is a thing which only happens to big cities like NY. They don’t yet fully grasp the gravity of a novel virus running loose amongst us, mutating in countless confines of human concentration, then branching out afresh to keep hitting us and hitting us. Someday we’ll learn. Or else maybe not.
The fact that such a tiny portion of the population here (probably about 1%) has been tested has to be skewing the data enormously. Where I live in KS it’s impossible to get tested unless you’re very very sick, probably almost ready to be intubated. Also, clinics here will send you home instead of seeing you if you have a cough, for example, but no serious fever, so you have to figure a LOT of infected people aren’t even being treated. I wouldn’t be surprised if half the country has been infected by now the shoddy way this pandemic is being handled here.
I think as dumb as these protesters are they are being used by the republicans to politicize these lockdowns to their benefit in the next election. They made a HUGE stink about democratic Governor Kelly’s shutdown here in Kansas - and she even got sued because she wouldn’t exempt churches - so I’m concerned about her losing her seat, and the shutdown here wasn’t very limiting at all IMO. The last thing Kansas needs right now is another governor like Brownback, who basically ran the state into the ground with all his libertarian policies.