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'Strongest Recession Signal Yet': Alarm Bells Sound as Key Indicator That Predicted Last Wall Street Crash Goes Negative

Originally published at http://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/08/14/strongest-recession-signal-yet-alarm-bells-sound-key-indicator-predicted-last-wall

That yield inversion has pertained on and off for months, but still no recession.

And let’s cut to the chase: Without a recession (soon), Trump will get four more years.

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A recession will be bad for ALL of us, but at least we’ll get rid of this ass hole. The election will be a Dem blowout and we may even retake the Senate. If this is the case and Sanders or Warren is President we “might” get through some really progressive programs, which would be the first since LBJ. Carter, Clinton and Obama WERE NOT progressives.

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Yes Josh, it’s quite possible and also quite rational NOT to point to a ‘trade war’ as the cause of the recession- and it’s not hard to see where you were going with that line of argument.

It may predict the next wall street crash … but not the next recession for the middle class (now the middle poor) living on wall street usury. It follows, that to have a next recession, there needs to be and end to the Bush/Obama recession. Not to say, Trump cannot increase the misery.

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Like everyone, following this q. rather closely…hope you’re not/fear you may be right.

Unlike the Mueller investigation - which most progressives saw for the false hope and distractor it was - suspect right liberals and many progressive liberals alike hold out a false hope of the ‘Deus ex machina’ of economic crisis saving the day…

…with the result that - if the Democratic Party succeeds in forcing Biden on the country - US politics would eddy in its center-right politics for another four years…without actually counteracting the Democratic Party politics that have continuously strengthened the US right in the first place.

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So much for Orangeman. Enjoy watching him deflate like a big baby blimp. Without Wall Street hot air, our clown-chintz is just an empty balloon, left to “twist slowly, slowly in the wind.”

It’s a day to celebrate, indulge in your preferred festivities, ding dong the witch is dead! Now we get to pick someone decent for president, so it’s gotta be Bernie. No compromise with idiots.

It’s significant that Orangeman is farting off furious tweet-salvos at the Fed right now. His hapless handlers face the hopeless hurdle of finding a way to tell him “Please stop making it even worse, sir.” It’s significant that this rate-inversion hammering keeps recurring despite Orangeman’s most ludicrous efforts to distract markets with flim-flam. A lot of heavy money is in there struggling, in vain, to maintain Empire’s legitimacy. Watch it crumble before our eyes.

I say hooray!

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I don’t believe it. Wishful thinking.

The economy is the last bastion of the Trump stronghold. If it goes South expect a Tsunami of political change. He has absolutely nothing else going for him. A crash will sweep not only him but Republicans out of office even with all of their planned cheating at the polls and voter suppression. It will make me think that maybe there is a God but it will ruin my retirement.

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I worked with 2 Bernie groups in 2016. I did call banks in 3 different places and from home. I registered 120 people to vote so I met A Lot of Bernie supporters. As of this writing, I still have not met one personally, that went and voted for Trump.

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Now don’t get carried away, here. Sit down slowly, and inhale. You’re getting a little giddy and mistaking it for a religious experience.

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From the Vox story baska links to:

“Moreover, defections from a primary to general election are common. More voters went from Hillary Clinton to John McCain in 2008 than went from Sanders to Trump in 2016; about 13 percent of Trump’s 2016 voters also voted for Barack Obama in 2012.”

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As I said, I still haven’t met one.

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Phred, you are correct - progressive Sanders supporters did not vote for Trump.

But see the link - it was not Sanders progressives that switched; it was economically progressive but culturally conservative Democrats drawn to Sanders’ message until he was out of the running - after which they shifted to Trump’s racist dogwhistles and bullcrap economic populism.

Also in connection with the shift of those crucial Democrats - that voted for Obama twice but shifted to Trump - see this piece which argues Obama’s post-2008 crisis bank bailout turned those voters against Democrats, paving the way for Trump, who attracted them not only w/racist rhetoric, but w/a false economic populism.

Here is one link, but, if you search, has actually been argued a lot:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-30/the-biggest-legacy-of-the-financial-crisis-is-the-trump-presidency

btw - I donated, phone banked and went door-to-door for Sanders too in 2016. Fraternally…

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They claimed that recession was over years ago. They just won’t admit that harm it caused continues.
Since it is long term bonds that are being rejected, does it have anything to do with trump’s refusal to spend on infrastructure instead of military?

In the end it is the super-delegates that will muddy the waters, if you are a Bernie supporter.

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Not so sure a recession would hurt Trump. He’ll blame it on everyone but White Men and his base will follow blindly along.

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If there has to be a recession, better to have it happen in the middle of twump’s 4 years where the blame will go where it belongs.
If a recession started very close to the election and a democrat won, the republicans will be saying how wonderful the economy was doing under twump and as soon as a democrat wins the election, the economy crashes.
The “Good” economy is one of the biggest reasons his base still backs him regardless of how insane he is.

Well, if blaming immigrants doesn’t work, I imagine the Trump administration will start a ‘little’ war to distract the public.

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Somebody needs to explain to the average reader why the yield curve is linked to recessions:

Lots of people who gamble on stocks might have high IQs but in terms of making money they’re kind of stupid. They lose a lot, and then sometimes they join gamblers anonymous. A few people keep their heads about them.

Now, if you actually know whether the market is going up or down, you can make perhaps 8% profit per year when the stocks are going up and then you can make maybe 3% per year by investing in bonds when the stocks are going down. If you can beat the crowd to the bonds, you can make much more than 3% in bonds because there will be a buyer’s market in bonds. So, the really wise guys, the sharps, load up on long term bonds before the market goes down.

So, we have to look at America’s general financial health. We’re maybe $22 trillion dollars in debt. The Republicans are talking about cancelling all of Social Security in order to get ahold of that cash and lower the national debt. Yes, such a plan is really, REALLY unpopular with voters. In any case the government either has to soak the rich (GOD, NO!!!) or starve the poor, and a big depression is probably the result. That’s just common sense.

I’ve been quite bond-heavy since a year ago June, for our retirement. Yes, they went up much more than stocks have gone up since a year ago.

In any case, this is the second time this year that long bonds have hinted that we’re going over the top of the roller coaster. Another famous indicator: “Bull markets never end with a bang, but with a whimper.” It’s been at least 18 months since the market has moved 10% up or 10% down. It’s just been flat as the top of a strip-mined mountain.

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