I believe that as a species humanity itself will survive, we are quite adaptable. But what we call civilization will not survive except in small pockets. We will have existence farming for the survivors. Our technological world depends on a stable climate. It also depends upon stability in many countries.
When what you stated happens there will be mass migrations the world has never seen, even in the World Wars. You will have hundreds of millions fleeing in the end. No country can stay stable under such conditions.
As our coasts flood, hundreds of millions will be forced to move away in just a few decades, to move inland. Even if only a few million a year move, it will be difficult to find homes and jobs for them. Then the drought areas will force people to move from those areas.
Just in the US alone, the western areas are suffering a great drought. Water aquifers are being drained, there isn’t enough snow or rain to fill the rivers and reservoirs. Fracking and agriculture consume a great deal of water, then throw in two of the most populous states fighting over water rights as the people themselves need water.
This has been like watching 2 snails racing towards each other head on. Only they each have head spikes. Where will all those tens of millions of people go when the water runs out? They won’t be able to live there.
And that is just the US, this will be going on around the world at the same time. Wars will happen as people flee into other countries and those countries refuse to accept more. Wars have been started for lesser reasons.
Crop failures are happening more and more. The US had a 10% crop loss, from the year before, last year from drought and storms. What happens when the crop failures drop more every year? Sure the US can maybe engineer plants that are more drought and heat resistant, but most of the world will not be able to afford such seed.
So throw in starving people along with the people forced to move.
Unfortunately I believe your timelines are close to correct from my own research. Just over 12 yrs from now we will hit 450PPM of CO2 at the rate of increase we have. With all the efforts so far, we have only cut into the rate of increase of CO2. Not at all into what we are adding every year. So instead of hitting the wall at 100MPH, it will be at 90 MPH.
Common dreams always send me messages about commenting too much when it is a thread I respond to quite a bit. They always tell me I should let someone else comment or send private messages to someone. And I really have no idea of how I am stopping someone else from commenting or adding to the discussion. Every once in awhile I complain about it, but they have never contacted me to tell how I am stopping others from being inc.
What gets me is that someone like you is obviously responding with me just as much as I am responding to you. And none of them have ever gotten that message. So why do I get that? Why don’t you? Not that I want you to get such a message or anyone else really. But why? Someone once told me it was either server space or bandwidth, but I really don’t believe that considering how often I see others posting.
Now they only ask me, they have never stopped me. And when I complain online, I stop getting the message. But they do ask me to not comment so much.