Here are my pessimistic thoughts on the Supreme Court decision. I wouldn’t expect to change anyone’s mind about anything, especially this issue with anything I write or say. I don’t have Blog and my age afflicted brain rarely comes up with these kinds of outpourings so I am “venting” them here for whatever they’re worth.
I wouldn’t be doing a victory dance just yet. Anything about gay people is such a hot button not only for Radical Right extremist activists but among the not wholly right wing but somewhat conservative middle Americans who are “uncomfortable” with the whole issue of same sexuality. The modern version of today’s fervent conservative movement, as in the John Birch Society, built itself on the “Impeach Earl Warren” rallying cry campaign that was inspired by the pro Civil Rights for Black Americans SCOTUS devisions such as Brown Versus Board of Education. African American civil rights, as recent events clearly show, is by no means a “done deal.”
I fear that, because the self righteous rage the so-called conservatives express is deep and real to them, this issue will become the dominant all encompassing theme of the 2016 Presidential Election, pushing the important issues of climate change and other chemical water, atmospheric and oceanic poisonings; the financial sector’s destabilizing manipulation of currencies that put the global economy at the very real risk of collapse; the determined and largely unchallenged moves towards wars that could easily go nuclear with either Russia or China – or both; the threat to food production from the agribusiness conspiracies such as GMOs and patenting and control of crop species that could lead to famine and the weaponized destabilizations that famines can produce; the looming possibility of a breakdown of the infrastructure especially in the realm of electric power production; the growing incidents of mass murder and other forms of dangerous wack violence; the increasing attractiveness of irrational gun behavior in deranged and stressed out people for whom it seems more and more like the only available form of doing something definite and decisive – all these and other important issues will be swept “off the table” by the resulting clamor about this decision.
The chances for extreme right wing candidates to get the nomination and win the election by promising to appoint Supreme Court justices who can be “counted on” to rule against all gay related issues have improved. Spokespeople against this decision will have the debate advantage of being able to use loud anger as a tactic and have it seem “justified,” even to themselves. More liberal candidates and spokespeople will be left to try to raise arguments that will seem to the undecided as quibbles about things like the definition of equality. There is no one I know of from the left-liberal side of things who can come even close to matching the Right in the arena of political rousingness and the effective uses of indignation and self righteous rage.
If one is interested in how the tactical uses of speechmaking and the taking of “positions on issues” will play out, it will be fascinating to see what people like Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren do with this as they struggle with ways to avoid “alienating needed constituencies.”
But people who are openly gay or been gay friendly and who have openly supported same sex marriage (that would include me) stand a good chXance of experiencing backlash of some sort, and could be in actual physical danger. The battle has not been won and it would not surprise me that middle class possible voters who have been recently won over to being in favor of same sex marriage largely on the issue of “fairness” will find it difficult to maintain their positions of support in the face of death threats and hostile public denunciations. Already people are asserting online that ministers who refuse to perform gay marriages will be treated as lawbreakers and arrested, then tortured and made to permanently disappear.