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Trade War with China is Not Going So Well For Trump

Originally published at http://www.commondreams.org/views/2019/08/13/trade-war-china-not-going-so-well-trump

Not going too well for our country either.

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It’s interesting to watch Orangeman play Wall Street like a yo-yo. Soon as we get near new highs, we get the announcement of increased tariffs. Dow down 400 yesterday; Orangeman changes his mind and delays the tariffs; Dow up 400 today. You’d think grownups would grow weary of dancing on command, but these guys down in “the pit” (are they ever not guys?) lost track of personal dignity some time ago.

I have been doing business in China for 25 years. A close friend told me they will eat grubs from trees before giving Trump what he wants.

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Broken Rules Are Trump’s Greedy Tools.

In some respects China holds a nice hand in this game of poker.

They control the rare earth metals supply.
Even with their slowdown, their economy is growing 3X faster than ours.
Their domestic market has barely begun to spend like ours.
They don’t waste trillions on an ineffective military like we do.
They are building trade relationships all over the world while we apply sanctions.
Many of their tech companies are on par or superior to ours (like Huawei’s 5G).
They can easily dump a few $trillion in US treasuries.
There are plenty of countries itching to stop trading in US$s.

And let’s be honest, Trump’s biggest fuck up in this game is overestimating his own abilities.

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Those protests in Honk Kong , given the fact some of its leaders were photographed consulting with members of the US Embassy , appear to be a means by which the USA tries to pressure China into meeting US demands. They did the same thing in the Ukraine when they used such tactics to force out a Russian friendly leader for one that would align to the West.

Watch for a flood of media stories on “The aspirations of freedom loving peoples in Hong Kong being crushed by ruthless Chinese officials” to fill the newspapers and airwaves. Contrast this with their reporting on those protests in the Gaza strip or the lack of reporting on the ongoing Yellow Vest protests in France.

The US is biting off way more than it can chew in an attempt to maintain its hegonomy and empire. China and Russia not so very long ago could be seen as adversaries but now they move closer and closer together. Europe is worried as they see their future as being with Eurasia rather then with North America and there already German Politicians openly suggesting the US just pack up its military and leave.

The US can not possibly maintain enough pressure to achieve its goals against both China and Russia even as Trump seeks conflict with Iran and Venezuela.

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After all, we’ve always been at war with East Asia. Turns out you don’t need such elaborate procedures to turn nearly everyone into Winston Smith (the second one, that is). Just install one of those personal surveillance devices – it’s easy, people actually pay good money for them! The ones who go the extra mile and also do the fitbit or googlass, those are potential Party members.

This is the wrong analysis.

The real reason for the recession is low demand. Wall Street has been using China and other nations to cut costs and skim off the top. Profits drop when the cost-cutting (wage-cutting) scheme is no longer effective.

A lower profit is still a profit; but American speculators are so greedy that they aren’t willing to live with modest stability.