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Trump and Growth


#1

Trump and Growth

Dean Baker

Neil Irwin used an Upshot column to address the issue of whether Donald Trump can acheive the 4.0 percent annual growth rate he has promised over the next decade. He argues that insofar as it is possible it is likely to involve two items that Trump voters may not like: job displacing innovations and increased immigration.


#2

Another article that only addresses one-side of the two-sided issue of interest rates. It assumes that everyone is a borrower and no one is a saver. This article is further enforcement of capitalism under noeliberalism in which the role of the working class is that of a (borrowing) consumer ... if you aren't consuming (especially above your means so you have to use unsecured, high-interest rate credit) you are of no value to the current economic system of capitalism. This system does nothing but enhance the financial coffers of our capitalist exploiters.

Yes low interest rates are good for borrowers. It is absolute devastation for those of us who sacrificed and saved all our lives for a financially secure retirement who are losing money (actually the purchasing power of our money) because the constant increase of the prices for the products and services most utilized by seniors far, far exceeds the interest rate of far less than 1% we can get on our savings.

Screw you, Dean Baker. I'm not falling for your line of capitalist excrement. You are just another capitalist mouthpiece that wants to keep as many people as possible under subjection to the elites. Screw you!


#3

If everyone lived like the US, the world economy would require almost five Earths for replenishment of aquifers, forests, fish stocks, erosion and pollution recycling.

US citizens will consume and produce at a ten Earth rate in 18 years, at 4% annual economic growth.

Is that weird or what?


#4

self driving trucks. Now that is a stupid idea. I don't even worry about that one because we don't have the technology yet and might never have, unless we spend billions in road refurbishing and environment remolding to accommodate these machines. Hiring drivers not only is safer and better but way cheaper. http://www.mtspace.me/self-driving-cars-technology


#5

It's Baker's fault you haven't a clue about investing?


#6

There is no cognizance of the masses who were already left behind. In real life, not everyone can work (health, etc.) and there aren't jobs for all. The US shut down/shipped out a huge number of jobs since the 1980s, ended actual welfare aid in the 1990s. Years of suppressing wages has left many of our more fortunate, those who still have min. wage jobs, a single job loss from losing everything. There's no way back up today. Once you no longer have a home address, phone, etc., you're out. You can't get a job.

We have no idea how many are "just out" today, nor has there been any indication of concern. We can't seem to build prisons fast enough to house them, and the overall life expectancy of the US poor has has been falling. Many knew that the years of this administration marked our last chance to turn things around.

We looked at those policies and programs implemented from FDR to Reagan, which took the US to its height of wealth and productivity (no, far from perfect, but much better), and chose to do the exact opposite. As a result, the overall quality of life in the US plummeted from #1 when Reagan was first elected, down to #48 by the time Obama was elected. The US has spent years making itself unsustainable. Corporations have gone international, no longer dependent on US workers or consumers.


#7

Which America? The US has been profoundly divided. Our masses of poor certainly aren't consuming, and today's middle class are under half the population. How much the working class consume obviously depends on their incomes. It's important to understand that US corporations went international, and are no longer dependent on US workers OR consumers. We seem to have been slowly, steadily, transitioning into just another third world labor state.


#8

it's bad enough when the smaller Uber self driving cars go astray. I personally do not want to be on 95 with a self driving semi


#9

No, it's not and I did not say that. I simply stated that he is touting the state-sponsored propaganda on behalf of the capitalist ruling class regarding interest rates.

I invested in stocks, mutual funds and bonds for the 32 years I was self-employed. Doing so allowed me to retire at age 54 with a substantial nest egg since I lived very frugally (example: no vacations) during those 32 years and saved/invested as much as 38% of my take-home income.

I will not risk any of my money in these instruments of casino capitalism now that I am retired because I cannot replace it since I am no longer employed. This is especially true of stocks in that most stock prices are based more from the results of stock repurchases than on actual company performance and the hoarding of profits rather than investing in the company's future via research and innovation to make sure the company even has a seat at the table in the future.

Based on my 32-year experience of saving and investing, I would say that I have just a little bit of investment knwledge since I retired at age 54 after losing more than $430,000 in the financial crash of 2008. :wink:

I learned my lesson in 2008. The only thing that saved my arse in 2008 were the corporate (not bank) CDs I had that had not yet matured and was paying 6.5% - 7.8%.

I believe the next coming crash that is just around the corner will make 2008 look like a non-event.

By the way, I am an expat living in Ecuador now I am earning between 6.25% and 9.50% on 1-year CDs and the U.S. dollar is our currency.

You may say that I can earn those interest rates here because of the risk involved in the economy here. I respond with these two points:

  1. In the nearly 5 years I've lived here, none of the seven financial institutions I have money in have ever been late, missed a payment on its due date or gone under.

  2. When the price of oil (our #1 export) plummeted, our economy went into a recession that appears will finally end in 2017. Yet, interest rates remained stable.

Sorry to bust your bubble that I am a financial imbecile. :smirk:


#10

Based on my 32-year experience of saving and investing, I would say that I have just a little bit of investment knwledge since I retired at age 54 after losing more than $430,000 in the financial crash of 2008.

You only lost money if a) you didn’t see the massive housing bubble (plenty did, including me) or b) you sold equities after the market crashed. Why did you sell? You should have bought, that’s what I did. And given this cool story you’ve obviously taken great pains to tell, why do you care what interest rates are in the US?

Perhapsyou should broaden your reading a bit:


#12

I didn't sell until 2012 (4 years after the crash and the market was still recovering) when I moved to Ecuador. I was required to sell what equities I had in the U.S. because I no longer resided in or maintained an address in the U.S.

A lot of the money I lost was in General Motors bonds. As we all know, GM filed bankruptcy. While GM was bailed out, the bondholders lost everything. In actuality, GM bonds became worthless much earlier when their fate became clear. You are right ... that is my fault. Additionally, some stocks (and the vast majority of corporate bonds) never regained their pre-2008 valuation.

Setting aside your mockery of me, the reason I care about the interest rates in the U.S. for retirees is actually quite simple: I care about others who shared my sacrifice during their working years and acted responsibly to assure a financially secure retirement. I was fortunate enough to be in a position to move elsewhere where I'm able to to earn a respectable return. Many are not.

Good day.


#13

when I moved to Ecuador. I was required to sell what equities I had in the U.S. because I no longer resided in or maintained an address in the U.S.

That is not true. I know because I’m a US expat who happens to still own a preponderance of the equities I owned when I lived in the States. Try again.

I can only conclude my original assessment was correct.


#14

I can only tell you what happened to me. Since my broker, Edward Jones, did not operate in Ecuador; I had to liquidate my holdings through them.

Does your brokerage house have facilities or a representative relationship in the country you moved to? I honestly would like to know why you were able to maintain your securities.

On a side note, I sure wish I knew what I have ever done to receive your unfriendly responses.

I only posted my opinion/statement in my first post that included my reasoning. My subsequent posts related to my experience(s).

Are you calling me a liar?


#15

Are you calling me a liar?

Not at all. Your original post had numerous tells that you didn’t really understand the macro behind monetary policy but yet you presented as some sort of authority on the subject. Sorry Mr. Brown, but ill-informed pedants rankle me - a personal failing that I willingly cop to. And there is a world of difference between having to close your Edw. Jones brokerage account and having to liquidate your equities. I’ll leave you to discover that difference on your own.


#16

As your insults continue, I excuse myself from further discourse. I wish you the very best in 2017!