Originally published at http://www.commondreams.org/views/2021/01/03/trump-and-iran-last-17-days-will-they-or-wont-they
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Trump hates Biden (Obama) far more than Iran. That, in fact, makes him all the more dangerous. He would gladly use the latter to get to the former as he is a petty tyrant. The military knows this and probably has some foot-dragging maneuvers choreographed already.
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Message from the Pentagon to Trump; “Fugedaboutit”. Cooler heads prevail.
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Putting your hope in Biden is like believing that the Pentagon is an environmental group.
It is absolutely stupid.
If Trump doesn’t make matters even worse than he has already, there is plenty of historical evidence
to indicate that Biden is very, very likely to make the situation worse. Biden’s history of predatory
arm-twisting against numerous other nations and his chronic, smug self-righteousness is being
willfully ignored.
He has been very quiet lately and that indicates he probably approves of what Trump is doing.
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My sense is that US military leaders will not risk allowing the US to go to war during the remaining few weeks of the Trump administration. Unfortunately, Biden is no dove. It is possible that Biden could restore the previous accord, That would be an improvement, but still far from the peaceful and just coexistence that we need to establish.
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2 points.
- If Trump & Co.(the overwhelming majority of congress) can instigate greater hostilities with Iran
in the next couple of weeks, the chance of Biden changing course and reducing hostilities is
pretty much non-existent. Biden has been silent lately and that indicates his approval.
- Biden has already indicated that he would NOT restore the previous “deal.” He is seeking
to extend some of the sanctions farther and he want to include the Saudis and the UAE in
“discussions.” These two proposals are a deliberate attempt to insult the Iranians.
There is no good reason to include the Saudis and the UAE if Biden was at all interested in
restoring the JCPOA. The US destroyed the agreement (such as it was - a one-sided trap)
and the way it was written any one of the allied members could make an unproven accusation
against Iran and then they would impose worse sanctions.
The only signatory who is without suspicion in regard to the intent of the JCPOA is Iran.
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It seems unlikely that there exists enough cooperation between Trump and Biden camps to attempt something like this during the transition. Biden will have to own his war to run it.