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Trump Will Win In 2020


#1

Trump Will Win In 2020

Pierre Tristam

Almost a year into his presidency in 1969 Richard Nixon looked like he would not finish his first term. Nothing was working, abroad or at home. Members of his national security staff were quitting in droves over Vietnam, and because they couldn’t stand H.R. Haldeman, Nixon’s Berlin Wall of a chief of staff. U.S.


#2

The Hell he will!

One big difference between Nixon and the Orange Pig.

Nixon wasn’t Mentally Ill.


#3

Nixon wasn’t _as_mentally ill.


#4

Yes, you would need a Trump fanatic to say there hasn’t been problems in his first 6 months and say at this point that he will win re election in 2020.

"Trump’s approval ratings have flirted with and, more recently, crossed into historic lows. A recent Washington Post/ABC News survey put the number at 36%, with ABC News calling it “the lowest six-month approval rating of any president in polls dating back 70 years.”

His current support rating is 38.3 percent. I don’t think there is any convincing evidence after his first 6 months that the rest of his first term won’t be just more of the same of what we have already seen.
.
President Trump’s first six months: by the numbers


#5

It’s possible if things stay relatively the same as they are now: if a nuclear war doesn’t break out between the U.S. and Russia. North Korea, and Iran one at a time or all at once, or if global warming doesn’t hit the tipping point which climate scientists are saying will now come much sooner than previously predicted and could lead to a shutdown of all electrical power, or if the economies of the industrialized nations don’t undergo a financial meltdown and currency collapse, or if the citizens of countries suddenly realize that they are terribly dangerously exploited and begin taking mass action, or if the antibiotic resistant micro-organisms cause a fast spreading global epidemic, or the ability to grow and distribute food goes awry bigly, or something currently unexpected and worse happens.

The reelection of Donald Trump four years from now is very low on my may make me kick the the bucket list.


#6

More like the Democrats will lose - again - in 2020 than Trump will win.

We still have the same elitist Democratic party leadership that regularly attends the same parties in the Hamptons as the Republicans. We still have the same Democratic party that avoids any sort of litmus test on values and positions and avoids it like the plague. We still have the same Democratic party that would rather pursue the tiny percentage of voters they might steal from the Republicans rather than pursue the colossal percentage of voters who didn’t bother to vote in 2016 for lack of a party to represent them. And now we have the lukewarm “Better Deal” from the same leadership that engineered the Hope and Change swindle.

Meanwhile, no matter how looney Trump gets, his whacko loyal base still supports him. Couple that with Republicans who hate Trump, but would rather vote for him than see any Democrat win, and, yes, I’d say there’s a good chance of Trump staying in the White House for another term. Long shot though it may be, the best chance of dumping Trump is still impeachment or, perhaps, making his life so miserable he’ll quit like the immature adolescent he is.

One bright spot in this has been Bernie Sanders. I haven’t spared my criticism of Sanders in the past, but I will give him credit for doing more to speak up on behalf of the working class, right now, than all the Demos put together. Compared to the party elite, however, he remains a voice crying in the wilderness.


#7

There is a good chance that Trump will be brought down by the Russian connection scandal before 2020. But he isn’t then he could win. Nixon won his second term because George McGovern was too far left for many Americans. He only won Massachusetts. No matter who the Democrats run in 2020 Trump can win because he has a very strong base. His strongest supporters are racists. He also has strong support from Evangelicals who would like to tear down the wall between church and state. In addition he would get a lot of support from single issue voters who are pro-life or against gun control. That would not give enough votes but it would get him close. We have entered a period of intolerance. Many people thought that the US had put intolerance in the past but now we no it was only being hidden. The election in 2016 was about tolerance vs intolerance and intolerance won. If Trump runs in 2002 once again that is what the election will be about. With efforts by Trump well underway to suppress the votes of minorities it will be tough for any Democrat to win. More people need to be convinced that voting matters. Too many people in the Obama coalition did not bother to vote in 2016 and that is how Trump won. He won some states that Romney lost without getting more votes than Romney did. The Obama coalition failed to show up in full force.


#8

I don’t think Trump would run much less win again. He has tarnished the Republican gleam of avarice in their eyes as well as ours. Whether Pence or some other Repub could win is another matter! The reason why the Repubs could win and the Dems lose (both need to happen and they are two different things actually) is basically that the Democrats are refusing to back the actual front runner yet again. The Dems want to believe that the old ‘Don’t vote Republican’ mantra will be enough but they miscalculate yet again. The Dems do not want to support democracy by letting the voters decide who should run and there lies the rub. People resent it. People resented it enough last election too. A very large proportion of Trump voters weren’t really voting for him as much as they were voting against what the Dems had done to Sanders! The mantra became ‘Don’t vote Democrat’.

People want to vote for Bernie. That’s practically a given in American politics but the Dems willfully ignore that fact. Thus people not only resent the usually crooked two party system that favors the oligarchy (and won’t let the voters choose whomever they really want) but most importantly the voters will reject whichever party is most responsible for preventing the very popular and trusted Sanders from running which are the Dems themselves! It wasn’t the Repubs who prevented Bernie from running … it was his own party! People saw that and the Dems lost their connection to the voters.

If Bernie isn’t allowed to run again, the Democrats will lose their base. If all the things that this author suggests are true about Trump winning in 2020 then if the Dems reject the call by the voters to go with Sanders then they will effectively reject the very people whom they need to vote for them. People are mad at the Dems for them ushering in Trump! Sanders would have won in a landslide had he been given the nomination. A landslide! Instead Hillary won the popular vote but not in an overwhelming victory like would have Sanders. A one sided victory that would have neutralized the electoral college.

It is that the Dems by rejecting the will of the people (including the unrepresented third party … the Independent voter) then end up with the Dems candidate being rejected by the voters as illegitimate.

Either the Dems actually give the people the candidate that they want or the Dems will literally throw the election to the Repubs.


#9

Mr. Tristam is using a microscope where a wide-angle lens is needed.

With the lone exception of internal scandal, the differences between Trump and Nixon could not be more stark. Virtually all current day environmental protection, occupational safety and consumer protection legislation was signed by Nixon. He strengthened welfare and social security. He attempted to control inflation with “socialist” interventions (wage and price controls) that would be unthinkable today. He ended the US’s refusal to recognize China and reduced tensions with the Soviet Union.

Trump and his rabid fascists running the agencies, and in congress, are well into successfully reversing all of this and Trump literally an out-of-control runaway truck regarding foreign policy.

Nixon enjoyed strong approval ratings - 60-70 percent through the first year and 50 to 65 percent for the rest of his presidency until the last year and a half, and only fell to as low as Trumps approval ratings are right now in the last 6 months.

No. Trump is not going to be re-elected. And yes, I predicted his election by this time last year.

Of course, none of his accomplishments offset the mass murder of 3 million Indochinese that Nixon/Kissinger presided over, but just like today, mainstream USAns generally agreed to these horrors. Even the youth resistance to the war was largely motivated by the draft - not concern for Asian people faraway.


#10

Sanders better have a good vice presidential running mate if he runs in 2020, his age is certainly a factor.


#11

Your comment about the anti-war movement shows you weren’t there. Women weren’t drafted for example. The whole world condemned the war as genocide. It wasn’t that the draft didn’t motivate people because it sent more young men to college than had anything else previously but it was the death toll, the daily body counts, the willful horrors that were being reported, the suicides of what must be called ’ the soldiers of regret’, it was white phosphorus on grass hut villages and Agent Orange and many My Lais! We wanted to end the war that would kill 3,000,000 million people! Give credit where credit is due! It wasn’t primarily the draft… it was the dead and dying!


#12

“For Trump, Democrats are broken by party division, a bankruptcy of ideas, disconnection from the people who used to elect Democrats, and of course Trump’s own sweatshop of slanders.”

Pierre Tristan,
Your piece is interesting, but I was an adult during the Nixon years, though busy raising a family, and I don’t recall anything relating to Nixon that was as disgusting and frightening and criminal in as many ways as is Trump’s presidency. We don’t know the outcome of his presidency yet, though it’s entirely possible he will be impeached. Of course he will fight that tooth and nail. But I don’t think Nixon insulted everybody who had supported him. Furthermore, the division in the Democratic party may end up being good for America if a more progressive candidate wins the nomination in 2020. We also can look forward to the SC’s ruling on Wisconsin gerrymandering, which will affect all of America, probably before then. See this Time Magazine piece: How This Supreme Court Case Will Affect the Next Election http://time.com/4826980/gerrymandering-gill-whitford-partisan/

We will see.


#13

Excellent post, Yunzer.


#14

We had more reliable voting methods back then. Now with gerrymandering and all kinds of ways of voter suppression and the voting machines, it could easily be pulled off. Voting is not about we the people it is about cheating and corruption to see who wins. Who is the best thief.


#15

We had more reliable voting methods back then. Now with gerrymandering and all kinds of ways of voter suppression and the voting machines, it could easily be pulled off. Voting is not about we the people it is about cheating and corruption to see who wins. Who is the best thief.


#16

Wait! This is still foreplay? Cuz I feel so fucked.


#17

and we got a daily dose of the killing which we don’t get today… Only on occasion do we see the deth and destruction.

I’ve looked up pictures of many of the cities prior to the war where now all we see is rubble. They were beautiful cities, modern and flourishing. All these cities were filled with thriving people i.e. men, women and children just like us, enjoying life. Now they are refugees fleeing bombs and … and being rejected, drowned, starved to death. Life without existence.


#18

"The larger the mob, the harder the test. In small areas, before small electorates, a first-rate man occasionally fights his way through, carrying even the mob with him by force of his personality. But when the field is nationwide, and the fight must be waged chiefly at second and third hand, and the force of personality cannot so readily make itself felt, then all the odds are on the man who is, intrinsically, the most devious and mediocre — the man who can most easily adeptly disperse the notion that his mind is a virtual vacuum.

“The Presidency tends, year by year, to go to such men. As democracy is perfected, the office represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. We move toward a lofty ideal. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

		H. L. Mencken on elections
		Baltimore Evening Sun, 26 July 1920

;-})


#19

Nina Turner would be excellent.


#20

The thing I love most about Common Dreams is that it regularly features some of the most thoughtful and perceptive journalists, writers, scientists and activists anywhere, in one site! Pierre Tristam is one of the best. Before discovering Common Dreams, I had never heard of him. I wish more people would read authors such as this.