20 January 2021: “Hey you Fat Fuck, You’re Fired! And Indicted!”
I advise keeping the champagne corked: Since 1953, the average time between a yield curve inversion and the official start of a recession is 15 months. If that holds true in this case, Trump will have been re-elected by then.
A few points:
Note that it is people’s perceptions about the economy, and not the economy itself that drives its relationship to how people vote.
I think there might be a 1 in 3 chance of a recession starting before the election - but even if there is, we may not know it started before then - and the public may be swayed to believe otherwise.
Trump enjoys the fact that he can send markets up or down with a few crazy tweets. There is little doubt he will attempt to use that to his electoral advantage.
And people’s perceptions are shaped, at least in part, by corporate media—which are owned by wealthy, self-interested people very much like Pwesident Twump. Whatever they may think of him in private, they, like CBS honcho Les Moonves, know he’s good for business. Whatever the actual state of the economy, then, reports are being tailored to fit the needs of the 1%.
And then there is the lying. Just before the election trump and Scott Walker were on stage promoting “preexisting conditions” will be covered. Up until a couple of days before they were against that provision. Even had/have a law suit against the ACA.
Bald face lying is now part of the republican lexicon.
At several 2016 campaign rallies Trump bragged about how he made a bundle buying distressed real estate for pennies on the dollar after each crash. Although many rally attendees likely had their houses repossessed and sold for pennies on the dollar after the 2008 crash they voted for Trump and will vote for him in 2020. He is their idol no matter how much he screws them.
Although the 1% don’t need to lie to keep brain dead Murkins supporting them, they still lie just to demonstrate their disdain for their brain dead voters.
And how is he doing on balancing the budget and ending the national debt?
The problem is systemic. The system is Capitalism. Historically, recessions have always bled the common people while the wealthy are mostly unaffected and continue to enjoy their exploits…
There are other significant factors at play here other than trade wars. For one, many corporate bonds that were once considered safe are anything but. After 2008 instead of allowing poorly run companies go bankrupt, the fed and govt shoveled trillions of dollars to them through banks which were given the money at 0 percent interest. These companies expanded their badly run businesses on these handouts, and now continue to borrow money to boost stocks by buybacks. The whole enchilada will soon collapse. That is why the fed can’t raise interest rates above a few percentage points. These companies can’t afford higher borrowing rates. When I borrowed money to build an office building in the early 1980’s prime rate had just dropped from 21%. My rates on a mortgage loan was around 12% for years. Now everyone cries at 2-3% rates. The economy is sick.
There is also trillions of dollars debt in subprime auto loans, college loans and credit cards. And most can not afford to repay these loans. This fragile house of cards is about to come tumbling down. It may not be tomorrow, but I suspect in the not too distant future.
Technically, a recession is labeled as such after two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth as measured by a country’s gross domestic product (GDP). Commonly, recessions are heralded by experts prior to that benchmark being reached.
And Trump tweets didn’t send markets down 3% today. He can try every tweet in the book, but once investors get jumpy, they start selling.
I think it is finally beginning to happen - Trump Fatigue.
No matter how many times Trump repeats the Phrase We Are Winning, the country is going to get tired of Winning, it no longer rings true to Investors and many within his loyal Base.
Finally his unfounded optimism and his unethical Lies are exposing his personality as a Fraud.
I think even his closest allies are starting recognize that this Petulant Mean-Spirited Child is nothing more than a Duplicitous Deceitful Embezzler, just as people who did business with him back in NY described his erratic Personality.
Why do I get the feeling people are mindlessly welcoming an economic catastrophe because they think it will benefit them politically?
In that respect, perhaps Trump has done everyone a favor by making it clear that the r-party is not the bastion of deficit hawks it claims to be – but the tea partiers will vote for them anyway.
And Nancy “Paygo” Pelosi voted Yes on that big increase in the military budget, you know, because paygo is only for programs that help poor folks.
If a recession does occur before the 2020 election, Trump will just blame Obama.
Hopefully, by then, Trump will have tested his, I could shoot somebody in the middle of 5th Avenue and get away with it theory, and actually be in prison.
I read today that only 8 companies in the S&P 500 are debt free.
Even if he loses the election he won’t leave office , not peacefully anyway.
@SkepticTank: “…only 8 companies in the S&P 500 are debt free”
I just looked up the carbon footprint of the list of debt free companies and found that none of them are good in that way. There goes that investment strategy.
(For those interested - to check out climate change related information on major companies and cities I use the CDP database at cdp.net)
Assuming it even happens before the election, Donald “Antichrist” Trump will deny there is a recession as long as possible (“fake news”). Then, he will blame the Fed, Congress, China, and immigrants. He isn’t stupid. He wants more desperation, more chaos, and more scapegoating, which then translates into more power for him.That is his strategy.