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Trump's America Fails Coronavirus as 170,000 to 204,000 Die, Child Cases Spike, While Other Countries Are Back to Normal

Originally published at http://www.commondreams.org/views/2020/08/17/trumps-america-fails-coronavirus-170000-204000-die-child-cases-spike-while-other

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“The Spanish Flu of 1918 killed about 675,000 Americans. We are on track to see about half that number of Americans die of the novel coronavirus by the end of this year. We’ve made enormous strides in medical knowledge and public health procedure since 1918, but it seems to have done Americans little good.”

Medical knowledge absent social growth shows its limitations in at least two major ways. First, we have a hideous for-profit sickness-until-death “health-care” scam feed-the-rich-via-privatized-insurance system. Second, we have disenfranchised the truth in this country in the name of profit making to the point that the person on the street’s head is basically on a swivel on any topic other than that about which they might happen to have some detailed knowledge. Anti-truth gets equal time as truth, because that is the model that maximizes eyeballs and therefore profits. Until our society returns to a semblance of morality where truth trumps anti-truth, we are condemned to spiral downward. SARS-CoV-2 cum Covid-19 is only the latest reminder alongside climate change, gross inequality, etc. We have a lot of paddling to do because we are truly up Shit Creek. How much longer we can hang on to our paddle–the vote–is in question.

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It’s good of Juan Cole to keep a spotlight on the pandemic, which will tend to get lost among Post Office and convention news over the next few weeks. The microbe takes no breaks – not while it’s negligently allowed free rein, as Cole describes. (We recently waited three weeks for a test result.)

I’ve been tracking a property derived from disease reporting which I call trouble – short for projective demographic mortalilty (per 100K). Projection is derived from inverting the ratio of reported active to total COVID-19 cases as a multiplier (of mortality, in the first column). A trouble reading of 1000 points to a chance of losing one-percent of the population to COVID-19, so it’s very serious. Washington just ascended to serious trouble, over 500, with 30 other states.

States are sorted below by this trouble column. The deep south is in deep trouble.

>      STATE                    MORTALITY     CASES   DEATHS  PER-CASE   TROUBLE
>                              PER 100,000                    FATALITY
>   1. Louisiana                   96.95    137,918    4,507    3.27%    2516.87
>   2. Arizona                     61.91    193,537    4,506    2.33%    2479.26
>   3. Mississippi                 70.02     72,136    2,084    2.89%    2423.78
>   4. Florida                     44.01    573,416    9,452    1.65%    2387.85
>   5. Georgia                     44.29    237,030    4,702    1.98%    2232.16
>   6. Alabama                     38.71    108,433    1,898    1.75%    2212.00
>   7. South Carolina              44.07    106,497    2,269    2.13%    2068.00
>   8. New Jersey                 179.15    187,455   15,912    8.49%    1975.36
>   9. Rhode Island                96.38     20,335    1,021    5.02%    1919.52
>  10. Illinois                    62.78    207,412    7,955    3.83%    1636.52
>  11. Nebraska                    18.66     30,372      361    1.19%    1569.55
>  12. Idaho                       15.05     27,656      269    0.97%    1547.07
>  13. Utah                        11.32     46,652      363    0.78%    1455.40
>  14. Connecticut                124.90     50,897    4,453    8.75%    1427.58
>  15. North Carolina              22.38    144,952    2,347    1.62%    1382.21
>  16. California                  28.45    623,873   11,243    1.80%    1347.25
>  17. Virginia                    27.89    106,687    2,381    2.23%    1249.22
>  18. Indiana                     46.54     80,415    3,133    3.90%    1194.48
>  19. New York                   168.81    425,508   32,840    7.72%    1178.94
>  20. Kansas                      13.94     33,885      406    1.20%    1163.27
>  21. Wisconsin                   17.84     65,741    1,039    1.58%    1111.84
>  22. Missouri                    22.53     68,196    1,383    2.03%    1111.14
>  23. Massachusetts              127.17    123,593    8,838    7.15%    1103.76
>  24. Michigan                    66.01    102,259    6,592    6.45%     960.80
>  25. Pennsylvania                58.22    129,070    7,453    5.77%     956.43
>  26. Ohio                        32.73    108,287    3,826    3.53%     926.44
>  27. Colorado                    32.92     53,157    1,896    3.57%     923.02
>  28. Puerto Rico                 10.49     26,006      335    1.29%     814.36
>  29. Maryland                    60.19    100,212    3,639    3.63%     632.40
>  30. Oregon                       9.20     23,262      388    1.67%     551.50
>  31. Washington                  23.39     67,461    1,781    2.64%     503.73
>  32. Nevada                      34.80     61,305    1,072    1.75%     334.10
>  33. Delaware                    60.90     16,451      593    3.60%     111.20
>  34. District of Columbia        84.59     13,220      597    4.52%     104.31
>  35. South Dakota                17.30     10,274      153    1.49%      96.62
>  36. New Mexico                  34.05     23,408      714    3.05%      79.90
>  37. Kentucky                    18.13     38,930      810    2.08%      74.42
>  38. Texas                       35.85    555,394   10,396    1.87%      57.10
>  39. Iowa                        30.90     52,447      975    1.86%      42.85
>  40. Minnesota                   31.07     65,152    1,752    2.69%      37.12
>  41. New Hampshire               31.11      6,988      423    6.05%      33.59
>  42. Tennessee                   19.99    133,708    1,366    1.02%      33.11
>  43. Arkansas                    19.88     52,665      600    1.14%      25.18
>  44. Oklahoma                    16.70     48,342      661    1.37%      22.18
>  45. North Dakota                16.40      8,587      125    1.46%      22.03
>  46. West Virginia                8.93      8,567      160    1.87%      13.26
>  47. Montana                      7.67      5,750       82    1.43%      13.22
>  48. Alaska                       3.83      4,373       28    0.64%      13.06
>  49. Maine                        9.45      4,168      127    3.05%      10.85
>  50. Vermont                      9.29      1,515       58    3.83%      10.59
>  51. Hawaii                       2.83      5,042       40    0.79%       9.18
>  52. Wyoming                      5.18      3,286       30    0.91%       6.84
> 
>      TOTAL                       51.24  5,401,882  170,034    3.15%     316.14

Excess death counts show that both the USA and Canada have understated total deaths that may be due to COVID. In the case of Canada they are talking a few hundreds of added deaths that may have not been counted. In the USA they are talking tens of thousands.

This is the nature of the virus, the greater the numbers the greater the numbers. People might think that the mortality rate is not much higher than is the common flu but the issue is the infection rate and the long term impacts of COVID.

There usually around 50000 deaths a year in the USA to the Common Flu. These COVID deaths are in addition to that. If excess deaths projected over a full year (Given Flu season is coming) the USA might well hit 500000.

Just to show how volatile the situation is , here in Canada there is a spiking in COVID. This as restrictions lifted on public gatherings and this has the health officials concerned. The lockdown of the border with the USA has been extended again and if these cases in Canada continue upwards they might have to restore full lockdown measures until they get a vaccine.

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Yes, the seasonal flu kills 50,000/year here.
But remember, that’s with a vaccine and without masks, social distancing, or mandatory lockdowns.

The commonly cited death rate for the seasonal flu is .1%.
Researchers are beginning to conclude that it’s .4% for Covid19.

Of course, the death rate is only one measure of the seriousness of Covid19.
The hospitalization rate for C19 is multiples higher than for the average seasonal flu.

Yes and as i mentioned many times at last count some 700 health care workers died to COVID. This does not happen with the common flu.

The manner in which Trump and those Republican Governors in the USA acted on this is criminal.

There a whole lot of boo hoo hooing coming from the right over the fact that many on the left suggested “the wrong trump died” a few days back. These guys in chorus claim this shows how much the left values human life. Yet when 170000 plus die to Trumps incompetence, they are silent and sing his praises.

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Sadly, even states with Democratic governors (like mine) were pressured to open back up when the coast looked pretty clear – and then the Covid cases spiked back up. I hope Canada has better luck, but nowhere appears to be perfectly safe. Once the crowds start gathering indoors again, the virus starts having a field day.