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When COVID-19 Science Comes Home to Roost

Originally published at http://www.commondreams.org/views/2020/07/22/when-covid-19-science-comes-home-roost

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There was that oId movie, where the IittIe boy kept saying," I see dead people."

I think that a Iot of peopIe wiII be saying that a Iot more frequently due to the stupidity of the oddest of humans i,e. ----Republican governors---- Perhaps they wiII be offed by their own stupidity—or possibly offed by citizens of those states who Lost friends and family—or actually---- probably by anyone who lost important people in their Lives. Or maybe even offed by people who personalIy lost no one----but who are horrified by those elected ones who pretend they are gods—who find too iate that they are truIy living with the consequences of their own making----: (

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As the pandemic continues it going to be harder to harder to control further outbreaks. Here in Canada a lot of people , young and old feel the lock down has gone on long enough. The young want to get together with friends and party, the elderly want to see their loved ones before they die of old age many having gone months without seeing family.

At the same time that various jurisdictions relax the lock down and move towards the next phase ,a sudden spike in cases seen and they recognize the potential danger here as it can get out of control.

Canada has seen +500 cases a day for the past few days . While not as bad as early in the Pandemic it does not take much for them to suddenly lose control.

The USA has a much larger problem. The lock downs the instilled were just not effective . 65000 new cases a day is going to be so much harder to contain and there just too many people that resist the lock down not because it has gone on too long, but because they think it a hoax. I really do not see how they can put the genie back in the bottle in the USA.

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Same here.

We are signing our son up for online grade 11, as the Alberta conservative Premier insists on opening the schools this fall - no masks required - no class size limits.

Here is an interesting article on just how bad things have become in the States:

My Relatives in Wuhan Survived. My Uncle in New York Did Not.

My father, a Chinese pulmonologist, believes his brother could have been saved.
~https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/22/opinion/coronavirus-china-us.html

On a personal note:

I am so freaking tired of looking at the faces of these miscreants now in charge of everything, from Musk to Barr to Trump. My God - Nixon, LBJ, Reagan, GW, Slick Willie, Obama, and now this.

Yet I think things are only going to get infinitely worse.

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Andrew Cuomo showed the way of science works - the contrast couldn’t be more stark - proof positive in fact.

And yet these geniuses in power follow some cult fantasies, and people die - and even then they may gain re-election.

The system is broken.

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As an environmental educator/researcher who saw the work product of his peers, students and himself often sabotaged by Republican appointees and a survivor of West Nile Virus in the election year of 2004, I had the ability to see this whole shitstorm evolve without a trace of surprise. I had seen the trailer. The suppression of data collection and publication. The incompetence. Once I learned how bad the novel coronavirus was I knew this was going to be an awful experience as Trump far outstrips W in incompetence and lack of empathy. Then there is the science. Both Trump and W act out of faith, although it is placed in quite different places. One may not understand the elements of science involved in a pandemic, nor should one put their faith in a man like Dr. Fauci, however, they should put their trust in him, for science is not a faith-based system. It may seem like semantic parsing, but I urge you not to be anti-semantic, at least in this one case.

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You do what you can to suggest not rushing toward the cliff at quite such a headlong pace, among the stampeding herd of lemmings. People are tired of not having their old world back, longing to dive back in, devil take the hindmost. Others keep strictly to triple-layer masks, when they go anywhere, which won’t be for awhile. To my knowledge, nobody has even theoretically dealt with the rapid introduction of an endemic, highly contagious, reliably deadly pathogen – and I don’t see hardly anyone scoping it out honestly to this day. We’re all enrolled in an incredibly complicated societal and global experiment, while talk of vaccines looks increasingly delusional. People who make fun of virology are also part of the experiment, willy-nilly (a control group, you could say).

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The fatality rate can not be looked at without looking at the number of peoples infected. The typical flu in the US results in some 50000 dead per year. The USA already sits at 160000 dead with 4 million infections. Double the number of infections and it like doubling the current fatality numbers.

~https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/official-us-coronavirus-death-toll-is-a-substantial-undercount-of-actual-tally-new-yale-study-finds.html

As per this article the number of EXCESS deaths in the USA is around 20 percent higher then what should have been expected. It concludes that the number of dead due to covid19 is being undercounted meaning that your .65 percent fatality rate can be just as easily higher then lower.

Added to that in the last count some 600 health Care workers have died to COVID in the USA. This is a number that is far greater then a normal flu season. This 600 dead occurred over a 4 month period. If this extrapolated over a year that is some 2000 dead health care workers .

This is not normal. 2000 health care workers dying each year would make being a health care worker the most dangerous field to be in inside of the USA.

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Comparisons of this SARS2 critter to any influenza virus strike me as zoologically elementary – like explaining how a rhinoceros isn’t much like a cauliflower. Back in the day, when they taught biology to stone-age children like me, they weren’t even sure whether to refer to viruses as lifeforms or microbes. Nowadays viruses, with all their RNA to DNA replication tricks, look to be the original genetic snip-snip engineers – not just a part of life, but playing a central role in the dance of evolution which landed us all here, on this lively planet.

Meanwhile, many are stuck in virological olden times. I’m amazed to still hear talk of “seasonal behavior” from SARS2 though there’s been not an ounce of evidence for it yet, only a common (always wrong) expectation it’ll resemble influenza someday. We’re learning the world of these microbes, with their plaything plasmids and proteins, is so small it’s largely opaque to us. We’re learning how little we understand about Life at this cellular-exchange level.

The crown of SARS2’s family name seems well-earned. Once it invades in force, COVID-19 has shown a remarkably novel (not at all like influenza) tendency to somehow remember previous challenges to your immune system, to invade multiple vital organ systems. SARS2 especially loves big confined playgrounds (San Quentin State Prison comes to mind), where it can mutate to even more interesting forms.

One would need to close their ears to virological history for several decades to miss the significance of what this particular microbe is doing to humankind, today. (One thing it’s doing in USA right now, by many metrics, is doubling.)

A brief history of USA COVID-19 cases (latest CDC numbers):

> WEEK    28 DAYS             CASES
>         ENDING          NEW       TOTAL
> 
>   4.  02/05/2020          11          11
>   8.  03/04/2020          87          98
>  12.  04/01/2020     213,046     213,144
>  16.  04/29/2020     817,515   1,030,659
>  20.  05/27/2020     667,864   1,698,523
>  24.  06/24/2020     675,759   2,374,282
>  28.  07/22/2020   1,577,991   3,952,273
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Hi manysummits:
I used to think that the system was broken—but after seeing Portand, and listening to some of those people in government------I think, very sadIy, that the system is now non-existent. : (

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