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Will the Price of Oil Collapse Within a Decade, Driven Off Cliff By Electric Vehicles?


#1

Will the Price of Oil Collapse Within a Decade, Driven Off Cliff By Electric Vehicles?

Juan Cole

One of the reasons that Saudi Arabia’s plans for an Initial Public Offering (IPO) on its ARAMCO oil have not actually materialized is that investors are not dummies. Saudi Arabia’s oil is an asset with no future value, and the future in which its price collapses is nearer than the oil companies think. (I would argue that if you figure in the cost of coming climate lawsuits, oil already has a negative value, but is certainly already worthless).


#2

“The end of oil will be huge for US politics, economy and foreign policy. Stay tuned.”

The end of oil will be the end of the US as we think we know it. When the bullshit is busted it will be very messy, indeed. My only prediction: chaos–no specifics are possible…


#3

Let’s start now to get rid of hydrocarbon based fertilizer when bring back a living soil that injest carbon and help solve climate change. It is not neutral, this chemical runs off into streams, lakes, rivers and into our oceans which determines our weather, air, and quality of life and many people die each year of cancer from these chemicals. Chemicals in the air we breathe is not neutral.

Oceans are 2/3 of our planet? Air 100% of our planet.


#4

The most important thing isn’t the price of oil but climate change. While more electric vehicles may reduce the demand for oil they are increasing the demand for coal and particularly natural gas which is rapidly replacing coal due to increased supplies from fracking which has also greatly increased the supply of oil. It is very clear that we need to make the grid 100% renewable energy as soon as possible, perhaps 2035 at the latest. This will allow electric cars to reduce the demand for oil without increasing the demand for other fossil fuels. Heating also creates a large demand for oil as well as natural gas and a grid on 100% renewable energy will allow electricity to play a much greater role in heating.


#5

If all the giant pickup trucks and RVs rolling through my town each summer are any indication, the demand for oil isn’t going to drop that much.


#6

The end of oil, is the beginning of the the next phase of humanity, one in which the destruction ceases, and the healing begins.


#7

Do consider ‘catastrophic’ climate change most important, but don’t expect all-battery electric cars will reduce petroleum use for air travel, global shipping, trucking and generating energy overall. Economies that are dependent upon long-distance travel and transport are doomed, as are ‘luxury’ air travel and tourism. They must be replaced with economies that use fuel/energy minimally. For better or worse, the daily rush hour commute will one day be a thing of the past. Mass transit must improve beyond current standards and development patterns reverse their suicidal direction of car-dependency.
Do you see what I’m talking about, Lrx?


#8

No need for chaos if we would only use our heads. Stop all oil refining and drilling here in the U.S. Use what we have on reserve for building the infrastructure for alternative fuels…solar, wind, hydro. Start seriously designing aero-cars. Electric is great, but think traveling air cars. That way, people here in the PNW won’t have to worry about driving up all our steep inclines in a putt putt.


#9

Oh shut up. Flying cars my ass!


#10

Don’t be rude. Someone is actually designing one now! Not unheard of at all!


#11

No! The World food systems will collapse before ten years, if the use of oil and coal don’t stop NOW! You see those hurricanes, already? Electric vehicles are needed in a post-oil world, reshaped into a Poor-no-more world that is green and clean and being repaired asap by the former poor with livable wages and a guaranteed income with universal paid-forward healthcare and nursing care system - food that is not gmo or industrial-mono-culture grown! No more towers or walls or racists allowed into public spaces without explicit permission by a Beloved Community of urban and rural co-op run Peace Officers working in tandem to organically reshape our biosphere and our human-being-ness .


#12

Ford Motor Company has decided that other than the Mustang, it will no longer make cars. They will now make only their biggest profit makers… trucks and suv’s.
Once gas hits $4 a gallon and peope are looking for economical cars again, they will have empty showrooms.
They will deserve it.


#13

The wealthy have more money than they know what to do with and would rather waste it than put it to some good use. Cars themselves are one of the principle building blocks of corporate control via car-dependency. Flying cars, like self-driving cars, is total bullshit only the cluelessly gullible believe is possible even though they would do no good if they were but aren’t. I’m not sorry to rudely point out the truth this time. Oh nevermind, Pavlov’s dog.


#14

Yes, it’s a shame and a mistake in judgment. I’m most concerned that Ford is cancelling the hybrid C-MAX and Fusion models. The truth is, plug-in hybrids have more potential to reduce overall fuel/energy consumption than all-battery electric EVs that will be manufactured abroad and imported, another decision that increases fuel/energy consumption. Ford is also being led down the proverbial garden path with the idiotic self-driving car nonsense and Robotaxi World BS.


#15

If you take the amount oil products used to to make electric cars the only difference is one gasoline based car… for every 5 electric cars to be made and maintained for 10 yrs the amount of emissions equals 4 gas cars.


#16

Ok. I see some of your points. But people who live in remote areas still need something to drive–even if to get to public transportation. And yes, it would be best if we all lived in centralized “towns” with all things easily accessible…but that is not a reality as yet.

A tiny piece of downtown Seattle has a monorail. Someone forgot to continue building it. But something like that would be great for getting around a closed community.

You know, we’re all just talking here…ideas are ok. You don’t have to be insulting. I’m not a Pavlov’s dog!


#17

No, you still have to generate the electricity.

Hopefully there will be a number of adjustments that make for partial solutions as petrol becomes yet more ecologically expensive. The biggest ought to be reduced transportation and passive climate control for offices and residences.


#18

How does another intense global economic shock impact these projections?


#19

The Seattle Monorail is 1 mile of double-track with stations at both ends. My own design for its improvement on record at City Hall - The Seattle Circulator Monorail - replaced the old track with slim single-track in a 6-mile loop with 14 stations, 4 for the Seattle Center Grounds, a 5th at KOMO offices where the two single-tracks converged and event patrons could disembark and board the return direction cars. Heading south the track again split into two single-track corridors, 4th Ave and through Belltown to the SR99 corridor to the Exposition Hall parking garage station. Stations along SR99 were at Coleman Dock, the Aquarium/Pike Place Market and Belltown. The 4th Ave route had stations at International District, City Hall, Central Library, Westlake Mall and a 2nd station in Belltown. This short circulator ran 6 cars every 4 minutes. The single-track design was low impact and its estimated cost was 1/4 that of the proposed Greenline which ran 20 cars every 15 minutes and when it went over budget by $3.5 to $6 billion with interest it was cancelled.

The conservative business interests that run ALL American cities including Seattle do not want transit to function and dictate terms to transit agencies like Sound Transit and Metro to serve an extremely limited purpose at high cost. They want you to believe self-driving cars, flying cars, hyperloop and underground highway tunnels aren’t blatant lies meant to distract you from real solutions. They want to deny you the lifesaving features that owning an electric or hybrid electric car offers. You are being programmed,
just like Pavlov’s dog.


#20

There were working prototypes as early as the 90’s. The only real obstacle has been the existing infrastructure, and the lobbying power of the auto industry.